[ayaghmour2]

Weekly Record: 4-3
Seasonal Record: 16-17 (6th, 4 GB)
Stars of the Week
Gene Case : 25 AB, 9 H, 3 HR, 8 RBI, .360 AVG, 1.260 OPS
Henry Watson : 26 AB, 9 H, 3 HR, 8 RBI, .346 AVG, 1.201 OPS
Jerry McMillan : 32 AB, 9 H, 0 HR, 4 RBI, .281 AVG, .638 OPS

Schedule
5-7: Loss vs Imperials (12-5)
5-8: Win vs Imperials (1-5)
5-9: Win vs Imperials (2-13)
5-10: Loss at Foresters (6-7): 11 innings
5-11: Loss at Foresters (0-5)
5-11: Win at Foresters (1-3)
5-12: Win at Foresters (0-5)

Recap
No one run losses! And we won more then we lost again!

Still a little before we're back to .500, we won the easy series and split the tough one. The offense was working, well, aside from the 5-0 shutout at the hands of Sonny Stoyer (3-0, 2.52, 21), as despite not showing up there we had five or more runs in five of the games this week. In one of the one's we didn't, temporary Cougar John Mitchell got the work done, going two outs away from a shutout in a 3-1 win. This came in the second game of the double header, as Mitchell allowed just 1 run on 7 hits and 4 walks, striking out 5 in the win. No matter how well he pitched, he was going back down, and replacing him will be Bob Burdick. The 35-year-old pitched well last season, working to a 2.72 ERA (165 ERA+) with 46 strikeouts in 76 innings, but he was optioned when we opened with just nine arms. Now with Gibson out, he'll return to the bigs, coming off a nice 10 inning stint (3 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 11) in Milwaukee. We'll need a spot start on the 30th and the 2nd, so I expect Mitchell to be back for that week.

Roy Ellis came even closer to a shutout, getting all but one out in our 5-1 win over the Imperials. Allowing just 3 hits, a run, and a walk, he struck out 9, giving him three straight starts with just a single walk. Now 4-1, he's got a nice 3.23 ERA (123 ERA+) and 1.01 WHIP, striking out 34 with just 10 walks. Pitching at an ace level, he gives a nice 1-2 punch with Don Griffin, even if Doc doesn't go too deep into the game. He got his first loss, allowing 5 hits, 4 runs, and 2 walks against the Imperials, but he gave us 5.2 scoreless innings in Cleveland. Charged with 2 hits and 4 walks, he's got a 2.57 ERA (154 ERA+) and 1.00 WHIP on the year, but with just 35 innings he's fourth on the team. Ironically, Pug White has two thirds of an inning less, though he really struggled this week. The Imps got 6 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks in an inning and a third, while the Foresters piled on 5 hits and 3 runs in 2.1 innings. This inflated his ERA to 4.46 (89 ERA+), but I'm sure in a few weeks time it'll be right back to where it should be.

I know I lead with the offense, before getting distracted by the pitching, as I should have led with Gene Case starting to heat up. Our talented first basemen was 9-for-25, hitting 3 homers and a double with 6 runs, 7 walks, 8 RBIs, and 3 steals. After hitting .215/.262/.329 (61 OPS+) in April, he's up to .370/.491/.696 (221 OPS+) in May, including 4 of his 5 homers and 11 of his 16 walks. In the aggregate, his .272/.355/.464 (123 OPS+) line looks nice, even if it is lower then each of his first two seasons. It was only a matter of time before he started heating up, and a major reason we won was that he was able to match Henry Watson. Watson continued to hit the ball hard, and he doubled his homer total by matching Case there and in hits, runs, and RBIs. He had one more at bat, four less walks, and two less steals, but the 24-year-old owns a robust .387/.424/.629 (185 OPS+) batting line. Easily our best player this season, he's on a shocking 11 WAR pace, already more then half way (2.2) past his total from last season (3.8) and the year before (4.2). An athletic outfielder, he's got 15 extra base hits and a pair of steals, playing strong defense in right (2.4, 1.058). One of our best players so far, he's up to 2nd on OSA's list of right fielders, trailing only the gifted Pat Davis (.291, 4, 19, 4). These two will continue to be contributors to the lineup, and we'll need them at their best to make up ground in the association race.

Looking Ahead
Off to start the week, and then we host a pair of teams for three games a piece. It starts with the Cannons, who like us, have had poor run differential luck. Despite being 14-18, they're 2nd in runs scored and 4th in runs against, good enough for a +30 run differential that is identical to ours. We do it with fewer runs scored and allowed, giving us a slight edge (20-13 to 19-13) in expected record. Most surprisingly, they're doing a lot of scoring without their best player at their best, as while Dallas Berry's (.252, 7, 22, 3) 144 WRC+ is well above average, it's over 30 points lower then last season and 10 points lower then his career average. In fact, Berry doesn't even lead his team, behind Bonnie Chapin's (.342, 4, 22) 175, Joe Case's (.353, 5, 18, 2) 169, and #2 prospect Mark Boyd's (.294, 6, 16) 158. Boyd is one of the two guys ahead of Dode Caudill (.260, 4, 15, 2), and at least offensively, Boyd has the edge so far. Even after Berry, the Cannons are producing runs, with only Milt Senecal (.220, 3, 11, 2) and his major sophomore slump producing a below average WRC+.

Then on the mound, they're having a ton of success, with just 22-year-old Jack Meeks (1-4, 5.49, 24) having trouble keeping runs off the board. Fellow 22-year-old Charlie Warren (1-3, 3.09, 36) is as dominant as ever, despite the poor record, as his 3.09 ERA (131 ERA+) lines up nicely with his 3.04 FIP (74 FIP-). A true innings eater at the top, he's easily their most talented arm, but he's not the one pitching the best. In fact, a third 22-year-old entered the Cannons rotation, as 26th ranked prospect John Walker (3-1, 1.89, 30) as been elite. Another member of the Pioneers pitching factory, he came over in the deal for Danny Daniels (3-2, 1.59, 36), and Walker is starting to make up for that loss. He got a quick cup of coffee last year, and is another talented young arm to earn a spot in Cincy. With an elite fastball/slider mix, he's been overpowering hitters left and right, striking out 7 or more in each of his last three starts. Pushing a near 20% K%, he's been tough to solve, and I think we're going to be tasked with him. It's not like they have a weak spot, 6th ranked prospect Marco Middleton (4-1, 3.28, 44) has an even higher K% (21.6), while Jim York (1-2, 3.86, 21) is starting to like the pitcher he was at 22. And of course, you can't forget unlucky stopper Paul Williams (1-5, 2, 14), who's one of the best in the game. No matter how you look at this series, it will be a tough one, but with home field advantage I think we can escape with the win.

It gets even harder after, as we'll host the first place Kings for three. At 20-13, they're a game above Cleveland and 4 clear of us, but technically we can pass them with a good week. For reasons unknown to men, the Kings are not scoring runs, as despite the offensive juggernaut known as Hank Williams (.350, 13, 28), who's tied for the CA lead in homers and RBIs, they only rank 7th in runs scored. Ken Newman (.261, 5, 13) looks worse then he did when he was hurt last year, Charlie Rogers (.268, 1, 9, 3) is hitting slightly below average, and both aging vets Al Farmer (.238, 2, 13, 2) and Bob Burge (.247, 1, 10) have seen their production plummet. Aside from Rogers, these guys all had WRC+ above 125 last season, while this year just Williams and Pat Davis (.291, 4, 19, 4) can say that today.

Granted, there's a reason they're in first, as the young staff has been dominant. Ranked 1st in rotation ERA (3.02), FIP (3.40), and WAR (6.5), they've allowed the second fewest runs as well, all with the Allen hangover from ace Beau McClellan (0-5, 4.29, 26). In his place, Gene Bailey (5-0, 2.16, 32) has emerged, and the Kings have won all six of his starts. Veteran Jack Halbur (3-1, 1.97, 30) went from awful deadline add to potential ace, 25th ranked prospect Johnnie Higgins (4-1, 3.32, 30) has beat down opposing hitters with his elite fastball/slider combo, and despite the record, Allie Boone (0-3, 3.51, 34) has looked as good as he has last year. And when a six starter is needed, old pal Henry Henderson (3-0, 2, 1.17, 6) has moved from the pen to the rotation. If the starters leave with a lead, Del Lamb (4-1, 5, 2.67, 32) usually holds it, and it's no surprise that they've gotten off to the start, at least overall record wise, that they have. We need a series win to catch up, and the problem is that even if we play great, it might not be enough.

Minor League Report
1B Ed Duncan (AAA Milwaukee Blues): The Century League superstar is at it again, as 37-year-old Ed Duncan took home Player of the Week. The longtime Denver Bruin went 11-for-26, tallying 7 runs, 2 doubles, a homer, 5 RBIs, and 3 walks. Another great week for the league's second 300 home run hitter, he's got four more this season, slashing a gaudy .338/.463/.581 (184 OPS+) with 4 doubles, a triple, 12 RBIs, 15 runs, and 18 walks. A solid all around performance, he's anchored the top scoring lineup, and it's easy to hide his defense at first base. Good enough for FABL, he really belongs in AAA, as at this point any callup would feel trivial. The vet gets to be the big fish in a small pond, and the fans at this level truly appreciate him. In FABL, he'd just be the old dog blocking a young buck, and there's not a role for him starting anywhere. Instead, he has a chance to keep climbing the CL leaderboards, less then 100 hits away from 2nd All-Time. A little tougher is the All-Time WAR mark, as with 43.6 he's just over 3 WAR shot of the legendary Monroe Johnson (46.8). That's reachable in two seasons, and I'm sure that record would be far more meaningful to him then a cup of coffee in Chicgao.

RHP Sam Davis (AA Little Rock Governors): A guy I think is way better then the prospect people realize, I made the call to start Sam Davis in AA this season. A former 8th Rounder, he was reliable for Rockford in 1962, 11-6 with a 3.36 ERA (128 ERA+), 1.50 WHIP, and 142 strikeouts. A true innings eater, he threw 187.2 innings in his 29 starts, picking up a shutout for the fourth consecutive season. He made that five on May 10th, as in a 12-0 domination Davis used 129 pitches to complete a 5-hit shutout. A little wild, he did walk 6 and strike out 5, but the 22-year-old Chicagoan usually works around his free passes. Through 4 starts in Little Rock he's 2-1, working to a 3.90 ERA (105 ERA+) and 1.37 WHIP with 12 walks and 17 strikeouts. With just one homer allowed, he's got an outstanding 2.91 FIP (70 FIP-), and excluding the game he got knocked out in the 5th he's been able to top 115 pitches.

Ranked outside our top 30 and the league's top 500, Davis is no scrub, as he's got better stuff then most of our staff. His curve is elite, and he's got a plus-plus fastball, slider, change, and splitter. The fastball, as well as his cutter that he might as well drop, sits in the mid 90s, as he's able to power through a lot of minor league hitters. The movement is good too, but now he's effectively wild instead of straight effective. A 4-3-2 pitcher, that's FABL quality, but Dixie just sees spot start or long relief. I think with the right defense, he can be a middle rotation arm, and we're certainly protecting him from the offseason Rule-5 draft. Part of the scouting reports being less favorable could be because Dixie thinks him and Don Griffin are relievers, even though the two couldn't be further apart. He has just Pug White between them, which in theory makes sense, but he doesn't consider most guys relievers anyways. If the prospect guys view him that way too, they could be holding that against him, which has allowed him to fly under most team's radars.

CF Bill Reinhard (A Rockford Wildcats): Our second Player of the Week, Bill Reinhard was the talk of the Heartland League, 10-for-23 with 2 doubles, a triple, a homer, 3 walks, 4 runs, and 4 RBIs. A 22-year-old outfielder, Reinhard's been developing rapidly since I took over, and he's now got a 4 gap power with 3s in the other hitting categories. On paper, that's better then Dode Caudill, but Reinhard doesn't have an up arrow even in Rockford. Still, he's probably ready for a new challenge, as his .344/.455/.531 (163 OPS+) line is well above average, and he hit .277/.402/.455 (127 OPS+) in 124 games last year. Unfortunately for him, we have a ton of outfielders, so there's been no real motivation to push him forward. Besides, he needs more reps in center (2/3), and in AA Orlando Benitez is manning center now. Benitez is the better defender, and while it would be nice improving his versatility, I want him focused on center for the time being. That means Reinhard will have to wait a few more weeks, but come June there's a solid chance he's up in Little Rock.

RHP John Roberts (B San Jose Cougars): Two levels below Davis, another pitcher threw a shutout, though this one ranked inside the top 30 and 500. 19th in our system and 383rd overall, John Roberts continued his dominant start to the season, spinning a 3-hit shutout with no walks and 6 strikeouts. Through four starts, the former fourth rounder has a miniscule 0.93 ERA (375 ERA+), but it's the 0.48 WHIP that really jumps out at you. The 21-year-old has allowed just 1 walk and 13 hits, striking out 17 in 29 innings. A groundballer with good control, he had a razor thin 3.2 BB% last season too, walking just 22 in 158.1 innings. If that level of command can continue, we'll have an absolute stud, but unfortunately for Roberts the control seems to be at it's peak. It's good enough for the C-O-W, but his stuff not good enough where it won't get hit. Working in his favor is the groundball tendencies and his ability to keep runners close, so he can live without great stuff. For that, he needs to keep improving his command, as without low walk numbers I can't see him finding success in the majors.