Another 111-win season for the Royals makes it 5 100+ win seasons in a row with a winning percentage in every statistic other than winning percentage in March and October. The consensus 2nd best batting team in the AL with the 2nd best pitching team shows the strength of this Royals team, the only problem being the Astros being number one in both categories!
Catcher
A 108 wRC+ with the lowest CERA (3.27) in the American League shows the value of Zach Herr. However, his career postseason performances mean the Royals may be on the lookout for a replacement as Herr enters his arbitration years. Mike Woods put up a higher wRC+ (123) and with his elite defense (albeit very weak arm) could be ready to step into the starting role.
Infield
At 1B the Royals platoon of Gilberto Matos and Luis Aceves was very successful. Matos’ 153 wRC+ was the only truly elite rating amongst the Royals bats and his injury was a tough blow for their postseason hopes. He is now fragile and the Royals will hope to put him through a successful stint in the Development Lab to improve this. Aceves had a 140 wRC+ against LHP and offers plus defense at 1B. On the minimum contract next year he will back on the roster.
Edgar Mir (119 wRC+) continues to build his Royals legacy as he enters the top ten list for runs scored in a season with 112, good for 8th on the list. He is now two more All Star calibre seasons (5.5 WAR) from matching George Brett’s WAR total for the Royals and, if he stays fit, it is difficult to bet against him. He will be the Royals 2B starter in 2045 for the 11th year in a row. One anomaly, not backed up by ratings, of his season was his weakness against LHP (85 wRC+) compared to RHP (127 wRC+). This hasn’t been the case through his career but the Royals will monitor this in 2045.
At 3B Estanislau Covete (108 wRC+) has become a fan fav while not quite reaching the 2043 heights. He is in his second year of arbitration and, while owner Sherman has set the goal of resigning him, the Royals would likely entertain offers for him even if they ultimately bring him back before he reaches arbitration.
Jadon Tezeno (110 wRC+) had another strong season but probably has to show more to keep justifying the long term contract he is on. Like Covete, he has large L-R splits and is another that the Royals would be happy to have starting at SS in 2045 but also would listen to the right offer.
Chris Ambrose (115 wRC+) and Arturo Oramas (97 wRC+) are similar right-handed infielders, with Ambrose offering better defensive ratings and Oramas better hitting ratings, although both have splits similar to Covete and Tezeno that favour LHP. Both players remain on league minimum contracts for next year before entering arbitration at the end of next season. It is unlikely the Royals will retain both players and, for the right price, both players time with the Royals may come to an end.
Outfield
Eight players played in more than 10 games in the Royals outfield as injuries hit once again.
RF Bobby Nickelberry played in 146 games and while this was another good not great season from the former Rookie, Batting Title, MVP winner, he put up at 135 wRC+ with the first Royal 40 HR season since Hunter Owen in 2030, and the 4th highest total of all time in Royals history. That power with a .286 average means that there is no doubt that Nickelberry will start in RF in 2045.
In CF Natalino Villa had another injury riddled season as he moved to a wrecked injury proneness while only appearing in 51 games. His plus plus contact, gap power, speed and defence provided a great combination as evidenced by his 4.9 WAR season in 2043 from only 112 games. Unfortunately, the injury proneness not only limits his availability but also requires his baserunning to be managed, taking away one of his main powers. Entering the second year of arbitration it may be the end of the road for the 2034 International Amateur signing.
In Villa’s absence CF Chris Goldberg was the man to benefit most, making over 350 PAs with a 1.046 EFF rating from over 800 IP at CF. Unfortunately, his bat didn’t back up his glove as 72 wRC+ meant his overall contribution was a lowly 0.8 WAR. Goldberg has option years left and so is a candidate to return to Omaha as a defensive safeguard but the Royals would certainly entertain trade offers if the right deal was offered.
It was a Chris overload, with Chris Albright and Chris Kern playing the majority of games in a combination of LF/DH roles. Kern was by far the more effective with a 122 wRC+ compared to Albright’s 88. Both offer similarly elite defence at LF, with Albright offering plus speed and plus plus power against LHP while Kern has more balanced splits but is very slow on the bases. Both players will be available over the summer, but should they play in a platoon in 2045 the Royals will have a strong LF.
Chris Morrow, the 2038 2nd round pick, was a beneficiary of the injury crisis as he made his debut and had 169 PAs. He struggled with a 66 wRC+ however, as a left hander, has one of the clearest routes to the 2045 26-man roster which is very Right dominated.
Ernesto Pimental was a casualty of the injury crisis as he was plucked from AA ball courtesy of being on the 42-man roster and played in 15 games, showing his lack of preparation for the Major Leagues with a .208 average. With the options available to the Royals, it is hard to see a role for Pimental and his 42-man spot may even be at risk when the Rule 5 squeeze comes.
Jorge Corujo, the number four prospect in baseball, made his debut as a September call up and the Royals hope that he may be the successor to Natalino Villa in CF. He has room for further development in his contact and gap power which could see plus-plus contact to go with plus gap power and 80 speed while his defense at CF is plus at the moment and the Royals will hope that can take a step forward as well. If Corujo was left handed, he would be anointed as the messiah for this Royals line up. As it is, he is merely the next big hope and may find himself offered a long term extension over the winter.
Offseason / Early 2043 Overview
C Mike Woods
1B Gilberto Matos
2B Edgar Mir
3B Estanislau Covete
SS Jadon Tezeno
LF Chris Kern
CF Jorge Corujo
RF Bobby Nickelberry
DH TBC
C TBC
IF Luis Aceves
IF TBC
OF TBC
Starters
The starting rotation was almost as troublesome as the outfield with 10 pitchers starting games (including Mike Herzner who is still out with his torn labrum).
Of players that were on the opening day roster, only Greg Moehring played more than 25 games, playing in 32 games, with an AL leading 6.1 WAR behind a 61 FIP-. His 2.44 ERA was good enough for 4th on the Royals All Time list, with his 0.95 WHIP 3rd all-time, as was his OAVG .197. Unsurprisingly, Moehring has opted out of his contract and is looking for $40m+/year for 111 years, front loaded; this is obviously not a contract the Royals will offer. However, he is still arbitration eligible so he will return, albeit probably with a contract worth upwards of $30m. This will allow the Royals to make him a QO next summer to assure a comp pick for a pitcher they can’t afford.
Midseason acquisition Jeremy Ogens wasn’t as effective for the Royals as he was in San Diego but his .344 BABIP suggests he got unlucky, and his 76 FIP- was lower than the 77 he had in San Diego. He enters his first year of arbitration and will return next year.
Ben Lane played in 24 games and is now considered fragile so the Royals will hope that an offseason development lab can assist with this as he put up 5.2 WAR and is the Royals best RHP.
Joe Davis should be a lock but at 28 is already wrecked and so the Royals will likely see what they can get in trade for the talented RHP who retains plus stuff and movement with an arbitration figure lower than $3m.
Mike Herzner will be fragile when he returns and unsurprisingly after a torn labrum opted in to his $22m salary. Luckily the Nationals will pick up 90% of that salary which makes Herzner a very cheap option for a place in the rotation. Unfortunately it is unlikely he will be back in time for a development lab opportunity so the Royals will roll the dice on his health and hope that, as with Moehring, they will be in a position to receive a comp pick after next season.
Mike Gaytan (99 FIP-) was a league average injury fill in, doing exactly what was needed of him without ever risking earning a starting slot permanently. He has options so is likely going to spend the year in Omaha in case he is needed. With a knuckle curve, though, the Royals may choose to put him through the development lab to see if he can improve that pitch over the winter.
Julio Bonilla, the 2040 1st round pick, played in 6 games and was excellent, pitching 35 innings 28 H, with a 0.3 HR/9 and 2.8 BB/9 rate. Both of those rates a huge outliers to his Minor League career and at odds with his ratings so the Royals might see if this had provided some false value for other teams. His alternative is likely as a safety valve in AAA if there is no trade value.
The two veterans Curt Bogans (82 FIP-) and Ethan Chafin (92 FIP-) were both better than league average and contributed 26 starts between them with 2.9 WAR. Ethan Chafin, in particular, was valuable as a RHP when it came to the Astros series, winning a POTG award in a losing effort. Chafin has a $16m Team Option and Bogans is a Free Agent after accepting the QO last year. He is looking for $11m over one year. It is likely that the Royals will turn down Chafin’s TO but try to resign him and try to negotiate Bogans down to something certainly in seven figures. Bogans is now comfortably the greatest Royal pitcher of all time by WAR, but is 12 wins from the top of that list, which the Royals would love to help him reach – Mason Barnett earned 14 wins in his 36+ years so there is a chance.
Bullpen
In the bullpen, the two stoppers contributed over 3.0 WAR each and were both All Stars. Both have Team Options – Rhodes at $10m, Nichols at $10.5m – and the Royals expect to pick up both options. Nichols is an Iron Man so the Royals are comfortable paying him in his year 40 year and he has the chance to join the list of 100 win & 100 save pitchers which at the start of the save numbered 15 and now includes Ismael Moreno (who just retired) and Joe Kohl. He had a 29:13 shutdown to meltdown rate, with Rhodes being stronger at 38:13, a SD rate which led the league, as did his 77 appearances.
There are then a succession of arbitration eligible arms that the Royals will have to consider:
• Juan Anaya $2.3m
• Nate Avis $4.7m
• Joe Manley $5.6m
• Julio Pesina $2.6m
Manley had 21 saves at an 87.5% success rate as well as a 21-8 SD-MD rate and will come back as the bullpen’s top LHP. Juan Anaya had a 2.67 FIP and gave up 0.7 HR/9 with 1.9 BB/9 and over 11 K/9 so at $2.3m is a bargain. Nate Avis and Julio Pesina had very similar seasons with Avis giving up more HRs and Pesina more BBs – after the early years of this save, HRs are the root of all Stewart’s fear and so it is likely the Royals move on from Avis and retain Pesina – it helps that Pesina is over $2m cheaper in arbitration.
The minimum salary arms will all be back at least for Spring Training with Jeremy Stockoff and Bob Capozziello pencilled in for roles in the opening day roster.
One player who the Royals will certainly look to trade is Doug Campos. A 5-9 SD-MD rate with a 104 FIP- and 1.46 WHIP are not viable returns for an $8m contract, especially for a wrecked pitcher so despite the great personality it is time to move on from Campos. The only caveat is the slight potential that the scouting department believes Campos shows which tempts the Royals into a development lab spot to increase he trade value.
Offseason / Early 2043 Overview
SP Greg Moehring
SP Ben Lane
SP Jeremy Ogens
SP Mike Herzner
SP Curt Bogans
RP Joe Manley
RP Luis Danys Rhodes
RP Dan Nichols
RP Juan Anaya
RP Julio Pesina
RP Jeremy Stockoff
RP Bob Capozziello
RP Ethan Chafin
RP TBC