Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobbiusto
I wonder if these results could be impacted by how the system works. I don't know the mechanics of the game system, obviously, but my take is that everything is controlled by a top-down management of expected totals for the season. So that if a particular stat gets out of line with what should be expected for a particular point in the season, whether its HRs, SBs, or runs in general, the system will adjust to allow the numbers to come back in line. I think of it as a machine that constantly seeks to revert to the mean. If this is the case and you are playing a game that is late in the day and late in the game and scoring is running a little below what is expected, would the engine loosen up a little to encourage some late game runs to bring the total back in line? Perhaps that is what is causing the seeming unrealistic proliferation of late comebacks. I don't know. This is just a speculation.
I feel like this mean reversion takes place in almost every season I play out. No matter how good or bad my team is, the majority of the time monthly records see-saw back and forth between winning and losing. Seemingly to prevent a team from being too good or too bad. I have also noticed this early in the season. For example, the first couple of days of the season, I never attempt a SB, because it seems that if a few SBs have already happened, the odds of stealing more is greatly reduced (as it would move too far from the expected mean at that point of the season), regardless of how good the base stealer is. Again, these are just my observations as to how the game feels, as I have no idea of the actual inner workings of the game mechanics.
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This just isn't how the engine works.
You can test with crazy ratings or crazy modiers to see that the game will absolutely allow for results well outside of what you are referring to as the "mean".
There IS a checkbox which you can turn on for this kind of influence, called "Automatically control in-game engine" which was created specifically for the minor leagues (well really for those that don't want to spend time making sure those league totals are working well) and shouldn't be used at the major league level.