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squirrel · 03-23-2025, 06:23 AM

I've just updated the Pistachio projection system shown in my youtube videos to v2 - reflecting various tweaks I've made this week as I've been playing OOTP.

If you want the latest version I've posted it as a github repo here:

https://github.com/squirrelplays/pistachio

Changes from v1 to v2:

- catcher defense WAR projection now based on catcher framing, not catcher ability
- pitching projections now based on HRA + pitcher BABIP, not just movement i.e. updated to reflect the changes made in OOTP 25.
- pitcher projection weightings updated to 25% stuff, 19% control, 51% HRA, 5% pitcher BABIP (this is data-driven based on OOTP 26 data from my save but v rudimentary - I'm multiplying these against the 20-95 ratings not the 1-600 underlying ratings - it seems to work ok but far from the most accurate projections imaginable)
- FIP projections normalised onto a scale with 4.1 as league average - hence FIP and pitcher WAR projections should look a bit more sensible
- pbabip >= 45 threshold added for pitchers
- groundball % minimum threshold now fixed to flow through properly to current and potential ratings (didn't previously)
- minimum rating for a pitch to count as a 'good pitch' set at 45 (on 20-80 scale) for both current and potential pitchers - previously it was left at 50 in error for potential and cut various guys off
- players traded in-year now come up as one row not multiple (with thanks to the user who pointed this out and provided code to fix)
- adds a new column Tpct for position players which is short for 'on-track %' - it compares current (not potential) OPS+ projection vs standardised curves by position to see extent of development for prospects

Any other thoughts welcomed.

EDIT: Added reference to Tpct which I forgot in the first draft of this post

03-23-2025, 06:23 AM	#11
squirrel Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Oct 2018 Posts: 31	I've just updated the Pistachio projection system shown in my youtube videos to v2 - reflecting various tweaks I've made this week as I've been playing OOTP. If you want the latest version I've posted it as a github repo here: https://github.com/squirrelplays/pistachio Changes from v1 to v2: - catcher defense WAR projection now based on catcher framing, not catcher ability - pitching projections now based on HRA + pitcher BABIP, not just movement i.e. updated to reflect the changes made in OOTP 25. - pitcher projection weightings updated to 25% stuff, 19% control, 51% HRA, 5% pitcher BABIP (this is data-driven based on OOTP 26 data from my save but v rudimentary - I'm multiplying these against the 20-95 ratings not the 1-600 underlying ratings - it seems to work ok but far from the most accurate projections imaginable) - FIP projections normalised onto a scale with 4.1 as league average - hence FIP and pitcher WAR projections should look a bit more sensible - pbabip >= 45 threshold added for pitchers - groundball % minimum threshold now fixed to flow through properly to current and potential ratings (didn't previously) - minimum rating for a pitch to count as a 'good pitch' set at 45 (on 20-80 scale) for both current and potential pitchers - previously it was left at 50 in error for potential and cut various guys off - players traded in-year now come up as one row not multiple (with thanks to the user who pointed this out and provided code to fix) - adds a new column Tpct for position players which is short for 'on-track %' - it compares current (not potential) OPS+ projection vs standardised curves by position to see extent of development for prospects Any other thoughts welcomed. EDIT: Added reference to Tpct which I forgot in the first draft of this post Last edited by squirrel; 03-24-2025 at 07:47 AM.