Originally Posted by jaa36
yes, this is quite a project! Nice work! One thing I realize with it though is that I don't believe you'd be able to use it to assist in online leagues, as I don't think you can export databases from them unless you're the commissioner...
I did something similar in OOTP 25, which I'll attach here... this copy includes the 2024 Phillies roster just to show how it works. It provides a current expected stat line (and WAR), a "projected" expected future stat line, and a "peak" future stat line. The basic info that informs it:
-I created a fictional league with basically out of the box settings (with all neutral parks), then simmed ahead 10 years (to get the kinks out), then simmed for 20 years and exported all the ratings and stats at the end of the year
-I then calculated the effect that each rating had on what it was supposed to affect (e.g. a Power rating of 50 works out to x HR/AB) and then used that info to build baseline offensive profiles for sets of ratings
-Defense was much harder to calculate, but in the end, the actual position rating (rather than the component ratings) was a pretty effective proxy for the defensive value at the position
-then basically used Fangraphs calculations to get WAR
-for pitchers, doing a straight FIP-based WAR calculation didn't make as much sense because of the pBABIP rating, so instead I calculated a pitcher "expected wOBA allowed" and used that to calculate WAR
-there are some corrections made for injury proneness, what position you play (e.g. first basemen play more games than catchers), DH hitting penalty, and leverage index for relievers when relevant
-The "current" and "peak" stat lines are pretty self explanatory, but basically use the current ratings and the potential ratings, respectively.
-I also did some research on development to inform the "projected" stat line. It basically looks at the player's potential and age, lightly incorporates personality factors, and then provides expected (not peak) future ratings. I was hoping to include current ratings as well, but it just muddied the results too much. It assumes players will not develop past age 25- which they rarely do in OOTP 25.
To use it, you would export a list including all the columns listed on the final tab for hitters or pitchers, respectively, then paste those columns into the left side of the appropriate tab. I don't have the coding chops to make a web app out of this, but I was able to get Excel to do what I needed to...
I'm hoping to build on this a bit in OOTP 26 when the dust settles a few patches in- likely putting together an aging model as well as a development model.
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