[jksander]

DRAFT DAY

The Boston Red Sox hold the #1 pick in this year’s draft, and we’ll pick fifth overall, behind Colorado, Pittsburgh and Seattle (who pick fourth due to a comp pick). Boston moved up all the way from 9th overall in the draft lottery, with Colorado gaining a spot to #2 and Pittsburgh gaining a spot to #3. Ours dropped from what originally should have given us the #2 pick, so in all future rounds beyond the first we get to pick second. We can’t complain too much though -- the San Francisco Giants originally held the #1 pick, and they dropped all the way to seventh overall, which is absolutely brutal. Minnesota has a comp pick at #17, along with Baltimore (#20), Cleveland (#28), Arizona (#30) and the Yankees (#36) and there are ten teams picking in the supplemental round following the first round ... so we pick 5th and then don’t pick again until 48th.

Of the players our scout has highlighted as having four star or above potential, only three are college-aged, and among the college aged players deeper into the draft, only 22 players are three star potential or better. So this is definitely not a draft where we’re hoping to find somebody who is a year or two away from the majors ... instead it’s heavy on development risks and players who show a ton of flash at the high school level but who may be fool’s gold. For that reason it’s an incredibly “up in the air” draft heading in, without a ton of clear favorites.

The first four picks in the draft were as follows:

1.1 -- Boston selects LHP Jordan Coker, 18, who may wind up being merely a lockdown closer if his third pitch doesn’t dev.
1.2 -- Colorado selected LF Scott Copeland, 18, who has the perfect power profile for Coors but very little defense ability.
1.3 -- Pittsburgh selected C Nick Spruell, 21, a Wichita State junior with decent framing and blocking and the eye not to strike out.
1.4 -- Seattle went with RF Rob Thomas, 17, with a good outfield arm but little to no range ... but he hits well.

None of them were on our radar, so we got the top pick on our board in 18-year-old left-hitting shortstop Grady Emerson, who has above-average contact potential, plus power potential and plus overall defensive ability at both shortstop and third base thanks to his excellent infield range, arm and ability to avoid errors. I’m very happy with this pick considering how much of a tossup some of these high-end first rounders look to be. If I’m going to go with a long-term risk, I’d rather take the one who could eventually be a top-tier defensive shortstop.

Round 1, Pick 5: SS Grady Emerson, 18 (Argyle HS, Argyle TX) -- 1.0/5.0 (Bonus: $12,000,000)
Round 2, Pick 48: SP Matéo Perret , 18 (International HS, St. Barts, SAI) -- 1.5/4.5 (Bonus: $1,600,000)*
Round 3, Pick 84: SP Greg Wygant, 17 (George W. Jenkins HS, Gibsonia FL) -- 1.5/4.0 (Bonus: $950,000**
Round 4, Pick 104: C Orlando Guajardo, 18 (Colegio Angelo David, Cabo Rojo PR) -- 1.0/3.5 (Bonus: $150,000)
Round 5, Pick 131: CF Willie Perez, 21 (University of Miami) -- 1.0/3.5 (Bonus: $750,000)***
Round 6, Pick 181: SP Ronnie Papagno, 18 (Rosemont HS, Rochester MN) -- 1.5/3.5 (Bonus: TBA)
Round 7, Pick 211: SS Brandon Mattox, 17 (Foss HS, Tacoma WA) -- 0.5/3.0
Round 8, Pick 241: RP Josh Wilson, 18 (Phillips Academy, Salem NH) -- 1.5/3.0
Round 9, Pick 271: CF Malachi Washington, 18 (Parkview HS, Lilburn GA) -- 0.5/3.0
Round 10, Pick 301: SP Jonathan Rodriguez, 17 (Silverado HS, Las Vegas NV) -- 1.5/3.0
Round 11, Pick 331: C Jason Fine, 18 (Milton HS, Westwood MA) -- 0.5/3.0
Round 12, Pick 361: 1B Rich Knepp, 18 (Ridgewood HS, Green OH) -- 0.5/2.5
Round 13, Pick 391: SP Dane Burns, 21 (Illinois State University) -- 1.5/2.5
Round 14, Pick 421: SP Seung-Hyeon Jang, 21 (Vanderbilt University) -- 1.5/2.5
Round 15, Pick 451: SP Taylor Leonard, 18 (Somers HS, Williston Park NY) -- 1.5/2.5
Round 16, Pick 481: RF Garrett Gregorio, 18 (Owasso HS, Los Angeles CA) -- 0.5/2.0
Round 17, Pick 511: SP Jason Muirhead, 22 (Loyola University, New Orleans) -- 1.5/2.0***
Round 18, Pick 541: SP Caden Marcum, 22 (University of Tennessee) -- 1.0/2.0
Round 19, Pick 571: 3B Tanner Zellem, 23 (University of Tennessee) -- 0.5/1.5
Round 20, Pick 601: CF Jason Avila, 22 (Florida State University) -- 0.5/1.5

* Peret profiles as a strikeout machine, with his stuff through the roof but his control ... not so much. His velocity is at 93-95 now, but could eventually reach 100+, so at this spot in the draft I’m fine with him if he becomes an elite closer even if his changeup never meets the potential of his fastball and splitter.

** A real steal in this round, Wygant profiles as a potential ace and even at 17 he looks like he’s not too far from being ready for Kannapolis. He has a potentially elite fastball, curve, changeup and sinker combo, but needs seasoning to develop his control. Would be turning down a scholarship at Arizona to join our minors.

*** Playing in the MLB Draft League