What a difference a year makes - 12 months ago the Rays had the best record in baseball at 55-29 while this year they're barely above .500 after dropping to the mark with a true June swoon. They've possibly righted the ship with a 5-1 week to close out the first half of the year but they've got a lot of work to do to make it back to the playoffs.
Instead it's the Red Sox who are this year's Rays with a double-digit division lead. We're playing for a wild card now and as mentioned in the previous post we're 1 1/2 behind Detroit and Cleveland but with Oakland 1/2 game ahead of us. And as you can see on the left, Junior is having a huge season but right now it's not enough.
A look at what's going on under the hood:
There's a lot that's revealing here. First of all we're 3 below out Pythagorean record, the difference between being in a wild card slot and not, and the shaky bullpen has something to do with that. Also of note is our ludicrous home/road disparity: at the Trop we're the 1927 Yankees and away from the dome we're the 1962 Mets. We were 32-23 at one point and have been 10-15 since and below .500 since the end of April as well. Winning 5 of the last 6 was nice but of course those were all at home; if they can't start winning on the road something in the neighborhood of .500 is where they're gonna stay.
Meanwhile the offense has been really good, only the team's allergy to drawing walks while striking out a lot is a negative but it isn't keeping them off the board. No it's the traditional strength of the team, pitching, that's this year's real problem. The 109 homers, 12th in the league, is the real eye-catcher over on the right as Gasser and Smith have been ridiculously gopher-prone this year. They're striking out a lot of people but not doing so well when they don't, and the team defense has left a lot to be desired as well. Losing Williams at SS didn't help, but even his D numbers were way down this year and actually Cruz's were better. But Westburg and Caminero at 2B and 3B have been brutal.
The offensive numbers:
This is the fun part of the recap, with Junior on pace for a 7+ WAR season, Isaac having another monster power year and Campusano and Heim (combined 3.1 WAR so far) making us forget about Adley Rutschman. Cermak has forced his way into the everyday lineup and acquitted himself well. The only disappointments are Westburg (and those numbers are after a hot last week) and the CF combo of Meadows and Taveras as Meadows hasn't been able to get going at all.
Now, the ugly side:
No complaints about Taj and Pepiot who have been brilliant, but when your third highest pitcher by WAR is a journeyman middle reliever like Lovelady you know things have gone terribly wrong. And especially when your young star pitcher counted on to be the ace and your shutdown closer have combined for -1.0 WAR. Oh, those homers as Smith's 24 in 85.2 innings and Bautista's 9 in 24.2 are just unacceptable with many of the latter's game-losers. And the other two starters Gasser and Horton have given up 15 longballs apiece. I'm not sure where all this is coming from and hopefully it will positively regress in the second half, but it needs to change if the Rays are going to go anywhere.
I was thisclose to bringing up either veteran Freddy Peralta (not exactly tearing it up at Durham) or rookie Jessie McGee (our 1st-round pick last year who's 9-2, 3.05 with 111 Ks in 88 IP at Montgomery) to take Gasser's spot before he had two excellent starts this past week but neither Smith (despite his dazzling 2027) or Horton are on the most solid of ground either.
Speaking of prospects this is how the system looks:
Not what you'd call an elite farm system for sure. Our top prospect according to this list is Schoolcraft, our #1 pick back in 2025 and he continues to show his two-way ability even after a promotion to AA Montgomery. He had a 2.67 ERA with 89 Ks in 60.2 IP for High-A Bowling Green along with 26 homers in only 185 AB, hitting 276/369/730. Since joining the Biscuits early this month he's struggled a bit on the mound (really his initial bad start) but still has fanned 19 in 15 IP, and is hitting 231/302/615 with 5 homers in only 39 AB as he's been the Ohtani of the minors. McGee of course I would have rated way, way higher than the #417 prospect overall given his pedigree and numbers at Montgomery with he and (maybe) Santiago Suarez the only ones who could provide some help to the staff.