Quote:
Originally Posted by matskralc!
Like, the guys who have historically torn through the minor leagues and flamed out in the major leagues are guys who should be coming out of the draft with 45/50/55 current ratings across the board and potential ratings that aren't much higher.
And then what we do is having the scouting model mis-interpret the player's current ratings and amateur stats and physical attributes and assign him higher potential ratings than he really has. Now you have your Chad Hermansens who come out of the draft as a 45/65, fly through the minors because they're better than everybody they're actually playing against, OPS .850+ as a 20-21 year old in AAA, and perform like a 45/45 in the majors because it turns out the scouts got it wrong and "guy who's better than everybody in the minors" was his ceiling.
At no point do we need to factor in a player's real potential ratings in order to create the mirage of players who progress quickly through the minors and then flame out in the majors.
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Right! If you want diversity in the draft class, there should be more guys who are 21-22 and coming out of college perfectly able to hold their own in AA, but whose ceiling might not be much higher. And those draft misses should come because a team's scout misinterprets the 45/45 guy who can already play at a high level as a 45/65, and the team is frustrated because the guy never seems to get any better.
I'm certainly not arguing that the game has reached some platonic ideal of baseball and the sim engine can't be improved. This is an example of an improvement that can be made. What I am saying is that an element that has nothing to do with a player's current skill has been introduced and it makes a difference to the player's outcome in the minor leagues.
This reminds me so much of the debate in the early 2000s on these very boards about having a "clutch" rating, right down to the main arguments in favor being "I played the game and you have to understand that this is a real thing," "the game creates better outcomes than it used to so why are people complaining," and "this really isn't that big of an effect so what are people up in arms about."
I'm still friends with the old school forum crowd from those days - we're in an online league together that's been going since...2006? 2007? I don't think it's possible for me to overstate the level of dismay this creates with those folks, who are basically saying "well, OOTP25 is a good product and I can live with just using that if they're going to break the sim engine by adding nonsense into the calculations." Personally I don't feel that strongly about it, and might still get new versions for the solo experience. But we rely on how our guys are doing in the minor leagues in our (quite competitive!) online league, and I don't think I'm going out on too much of a limb to say it's unlikely that league will ever upgrade past OOTP25 unless this is taken out. You can ask mats though - he's our commissioner.