[Paul Reuschel's Mustache]

Originally Posted by sixto

Long story short: the vast majority of players who are candidates for organized ball would have potential ratings of just 200-300 on a 600 scale. That is how you are supposed to account for double-super stars like Babe Ruth and Pedro Martinez and early Mike Trout on a 600 scale: a 550 potential hit tool should almost never happen. You absolutely shouldn't have so many players with ratings over 400 that you now need a double booster from the potential ratings to differentiate.

Therefore, at the heart of what we are discussing is this: if minor league baseball players' statistics are influenced by potential ratings, then in fact they are influenced not by data but by somebody's opinions. That is, because Johnny Q. Scout believes that Hubert H. Homerhitter has the potential to hit 40 HR in the majors someday, somehow Johnny Q. Scout's opinion actually manifests in a boost in performance for Hubert in AAA. But not in the majors, where Johnny Q. Scout's opinions suddenly mean nothing. That's what I've gleaned from this discussion.

The problem with OOTP's game engine, and I've thought this for years, isn't one that needs to use opinions to boost facts. The problems could be solved with just two tweaks. Well, three.

1. If a player A has more potential than player B, regardless of current ability, then if the potential rating is accurate, his current ability ratings should go up much, much faster (and more measurably!) than they currently do in OOTP. This would completely eradicate the need to self-hack it with a potential boost.

2. The way players are rated needs to be completely overhauled so that the vast majority of players are in the bottom half of the ratings scale, as they are in real life. Ratings over 400 and especially over 500 need to be reserved for the true superstars. But here's the great thing: this would make it infinitely easier for users to reliably create superstars in their games. As a fictional simmer 4 life, I would be so, so, so happy if I could create a few Jimmie Foxxes who actually play like Jimmie Foxx and not Andy Fox.

That brings us, unfortunately, to the third tweak.

3. Some genius has to figure out how to create a game where the code doesn't just see the vast majority of players as essentially replacement-level players who really could be interchanged one with the other. I have no proof, but I believe this is the problem that probably vexed Markus more than any other ("OOTP only knows numbers not names" IYKYK.) I think he did a truly fine job of faking it — but it's not perfect. And if OOTP were to implement the recommendations above, this problem would come roaring back. I don't have an answer for it.

Thank you for that. I read all of it twice and it makes perfect sense. I'd be interested in hearing what Matt and/or Lukas think about your comments.