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ROYALS MAILBAG
Where to place the blame for hitting woes; new stadium talk heats back up

By 3Bplay
09/01/2025

Who deserves the blame for the offense? What do they do to fix it in the offseason?

Let's put aside the whole "fire Alec Zumwalt" discussion for later; although I think there's some merit to it. I'll have a more detailed outlook next month, but I'll sneak peek some details here.

Basically, they need one or two bats for next season, either one big bat or spread out the money over multiple mid-level improvements. And they don't have to be in the outfield; they have needs at multiple positions. I'll have more on this later, but one internal move I'd make is moving Maikel Garcia off third base to either second base or left field.

Unless the Rays decline Brandon Lowe's $11.5 million team option for next season, I don't see a second baseman out there that would be worth pursuing, so Garcia to second would be an acceptable alternative. The third base market doesn't look a ton better, but there are at least some options there, especially if the Dodgers cut ties with Max Muncy or if Yoan Moncada finishes strong with the Padres.

Eugenio Suarez has openly stated he'd love to stay in Seattle, so I don't have much confidence there, either, and even if he would opt-out with the Red Sox, the Royals could easily be out-bid for Alex Bregman.

I will say this about Zumwalt -- it is a feather in the cap (to me at least) for him that the players that came over in trades are hitting better with the Royals than they did with their old clubs. It's not a sure-fire correlation, since these are all veteran players that have been on winning teams with winning cultures, but it can't hurt him going into the offseason where he'll likely be looking for any reason to make his case to stay in his current role.

Is it critical that the Royals make the postseason to build more support for the new stadium?

It would help, but don't think it's necessary. The number-one obstacle to a new stadium is parking, as Royals fans have grown accustomed to traveling to a fairly sparsely-populated part of the metro over the last half-century or so, with easy in-and-out parking and tailgating space. They have memories with parents and grandparents at Kauffman that go back generations, especially those older fans that remember the mid 70's and the World Series teams of the 80's.

The plan put forth to voters last year was ham-handed, forced, and frankly looked half-assed; and the voters responded accordingly. Honestly, though, the Chiefs' renovation proposal was still weaker than the Royals' idea for a new downtown stadium, and that had much more support from the county voting base, which I found strange, but when you've won three Super Bowls this decade with two other appearances, I suppose winning does cover up most, if not all, warts.

Much like newer ballparks such as Truist Park in Atlanta; and even at older parks like Wrigley and Busch Stadium, they have their own areas with bars, restaurants, and fan-friendly activities that bring in additional revenue to the team. I think John Sherman has correctly surmised that if you want to compete for better free agents and have more money to invest in the franchise, more revenue is needed; and while I love the K and have lots of good memories there, it's not an area that's conducive to much development.

The projected payroll for Opening Day 2026 is just north of $175 million, which would shatter the previous Opening Day payroll record. I fully believe, though, that it will be much lower than that by the time that rolls around. They have arbitration cases that potentially could get non-tendered, some options that are unlikely to be exercised, and even a few players that could be moved in a trade (can cover that in a later piece).

Is Maikel Garcia the long-term solution at third?

He is right now by default, as he's currently playing there at a fairly high level defensively, and he's been one of the top handful of offensive players at the position this year in the AL.

That said, I would be looking for someone to take over third base and move him to second. One, he could be a perennial All-Star there with the kind of offensive production he has, and secondly, his defensive profile actually fits better at second than at third. He has shortstop/third base range, but a fringy arm per Fangraphs, as he's a lower middle-of-the-pack thrower of the baseball amongst qualifying third basemen.

With DJ LeMahieu on the roster, we thought it might allow them to use Garcia at second more often, but DJL has mainly been a bench bat with Adam Frazier and Jonathan India getting most of the reps there.

Unfortunately, free agency likely will not look down on the Royals kindly, as third base is a pretty mediocre crop after Eugenio Suarez as noted earlier. Both Miguel Andujar and Yoan Moncada are enjoying above league-average seasons in 2025, but both will be entering their age-31 seasons in 2026 and neither of them represent a huge upgrade at third, enough to move Garcia off the position to second.

I wouldn't rule out an offseason trade either, but my guess is that it will likely take someone currently on the roster or a top prospect to swing a deal worth making.

Is the postseason hope over?

It's not, but it's going to take a pretty incredible run to make it after dropping those six straight games, especially the first two against the White Sox (which is going to be pointed to if they barely miss out on the postseason by a game or two).

The Yankees and Mariners are near shoo-in's to make it (both 80% or better), but the Royals are coming in at about a 10% chance. In September, they play a lot of games against teams directly ahead of them (four @ Cleveland, three vs Toronto and Seattle), so there's some opportunity if they can hold serve at home and steal some wins on the road.

I think Seattle is in due to a pretty soft September; the Royals in KC may be their toughest draw of the month aside from playing in Houston right before that. New York and Toronto have tougher roads in September, including three against each other in the Bronx from September 5th through the 7th. The Rangers and Guardians might have it even tougher, with six against Detroit (including three on the road), four at Tampa, and three at Boston. They also get the Royals at home for four.

Texas has six against Houston (three on the road), three at Cleveland to end the season (that may decide the last WC spot), three at the Mets, and a home series with Milwaukee.

As I sit here writing this one, on August 31st, they have twenty-six games remaining, including the series finale with Detroit that will be played by the time you read this. They likely need eighteen or more wins to pull it off, which means an 85-77 record or better. They would likely need to go no worse than 11-2 at home, which would mean at least 7-6 on the road since they have an even 13-13 split of home and road games remaining.

Basically, these three things need to happen -- 1) Win at least eighteen games, 2) at least eight of those wins against CLE, TOR, and SEA, and 3) hope for the tougher schedules to eventually do in the teams like the Rangers, Guardians, and Blue Jays.