Quote:
Originally Posted by Amazin69
Yes, as the rest of my comment noted, with the ball now on the 1, it makes more sense to use either of their two running options or to have Bryce roll out and have an RPO. (And also if you want to pass, try a fade so you only need to beat one-on-one coverage, or a swing pass to that there's some momentum going and again, you're dealing with spread coverage. A crossing route into traffic is the worst of all possible worlds.)
All that said, though, strategically going for two makes sense, because if you're two TDs down, in theory you should be able to make the two at least one out of two times. (Thereby benefitting you if you make the 8 and can win with 7 the second time, and with no real penalty if you go 6, then 8 and end up right where you'd be if you'd gone for 7 and 7). With the ball at the 1 due to the penalty, it makes the case for 2 even stronger…
…assuming you don't totally botch the play call, as Canales did.
(I do disagree with Cobra's argument about going for 8 when you're only down 7, though. That seems unnecessarily all-or-nothing on what is barely a 50% play for most teams. I realize that some teams simply don't trust their defense, but even so.)
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In theory. This is assuming it's a 50/50 chance. One of the problems with analytics is that it doesn't take into consideration the current game. Just what is more likely overall. In theory.
Down 7 points with a 4th and 5 from the 10 yard line against the Eagles is a big difference than the same situation against the Raiders. Especially if you're having trouble moving the ball all game, like the Lions did.
The one thing I don't see a lot of teams do, even though the situation rarely comes up. If you're up by 1 and you get a TD late in the game, go for 2. The risk is minimal, the reward is probably a win.