2023 Season Preview - Part 4
The final 5 teams to preview - it's time for the big guns, as well as one team that's expected to be a big surprise.
TSAPNA BC
Ransu, RA
2022: 113-77 (4th)
Seasons in EL: 31
Best finish: 2nd (1999, 2000)
Payroll: $149.6 million (3rd)
Tsapna's streak of 5 straight top-3 finishes came to an end, or maybe it just became a streak of 6 straight top-4 finishes. There's not all that much to talk about with this team, because nearly everyone is back, with only one major amateur signing and a couple of minor trades affecting the team at all.
Lineup (6th):
RF Ri Tashete - CF Chiati Rolei - 2B Lawori El
LF Uoro Toyerno - 1B Safishi Ifata - 3B Pomi Mawotsi
SS Kysatse Nysotof - C Nak Fatohatse
Uoro Toyerno is the amateur in question, having just turned 17 a couple of weeks before opening day. Still a good amount of developing to do, but Tsapna seem content to have that development happen in the Elite League. The team did acquire SS Kotsimare Wamia and C Sute Ninichu in trades, and both looked like upgrades over Nysotof and Fatohatse, respectively, but Tsapna is sticking with the veterans for the time being.
Rotation (3rd):
Mua Wyranu - Lomunu Awia - Setsinak Perano - Soitu Chesashomo - Tupae Epofemi
Previous ace Sefti Merefife has left for Westline, but this was in the running for the league's best rotation a year ago and they're still not far off. Perano missed most of last season to injury, leading Chesashomo to step in as a rookie and perform reasonably well. Popi Toyerno is also expected back in June, though whether he goes into the rotation or the bullpen will depend on how these five are doing.
Wyranu and Awia are basically a buddy cop movie at the top of the line. Wyranu is the young fireballer, 22 years old, who will contend to lead the league in strikeouts, while Lomunu Awia is the crafty lefty, 32, with 4 Pitcher of the Year awards already on his shelf.
Closer: Maho Narupu (5th)
Really great bullpen - might actually be the team's best unit. One great weapon is lefty sidearm-throwing 17 year old Fumiecho Hakoheso, who should be able to come in and dominate a left-handed batter in a key spot (this league system does not utilize the 3-batter minimum).
2023 prediction: 110-80 (5th)
Tsapna have an interesting mix of grizzled old vets and young guns. I don't really expect a championship, but the top 5 streak seems highly likely to continue.
NATIONAL BC
Shunna, XU
2022: 127-63 (2nd)
Seasons in EL: 31
Best finish: 2nd (2012, 2022)
Payroll: $141.5 million (4th)
Every year, it seems like one team spends big and really goes for a championship throughout the offseason despite not really being "ready" for it. Last offseason, that team was National. Looking back at last season's previews, you'd see that they were predicted to jump all the way from 13th in the EL to 1st, and while that didn't actually happen, they exceeded the win total that OOTP had predicted for them. It was just that Mighty Oaks went much further above their prediction.
Lineup (3rd):
LF Kiowu Rorale - SS Anesa Mikesash - CF Solo Sipet
RF Pumona Kakosuta - 3B Pelik Yelishike - 1B Kashuma Rehefeo
2B Keaye Apylsho - C Chafosu Seshate
A more playable version of the "stars-and-scrubs" model that I talked about in BK Kepmem's preview. The top 5 are elite, among the best in the world at their positions. Sipet in particular has all the talent in the world, and just needs to stay on the field. (2022 was a good start, managing to play in 170 games of 190.) Rehefeo and Seshate are average hitters, at least: not what you expect to see at a team of this caliber, but OK, with Rehefeo also being the 2-time defending Gold Glove winner at 1B. The only real weak spot is at 2nd, where Apylsho and Note Tipako will split time.
Rotation (6th):
Lohy Awia - Santa Ketitu - Tacha Rinuka - Latsal Awia - Chashe Shoshau
A low-floor high-ceiling rotation. Lohy Awia is a former Pitcher of the Year (2020) while Ketitu finished 2nd last year. Rinuka is solid, and cheap due to being a late bloomer, and still on his rookie contract at age 24. Shoshau and Latsal Awia are the wild cards - both yet to make a professional start, but with the skills to pay the bills... theoretically.
Closer: Fapasile Opopa (1st)
Opopa stepped up from a lower league into the closer's role last season and performed quite well, logging 40 saves and a sub-2 ERA. One of the league's few 100-MPH throwers, he can still pinpoint those fireballs reasonably well. The bullpen is not elite as a unit, but it's good. They'll miss setup man Etateshe Kekok, who went to Cheshek.
2023 prediction: 112-78 (4th)
If National want to win it all this year, they'll need the pitching staff to be more than it's supposed to be. That's not impossible, but it's unlikely.
MIGHTY OAKS BC
Aroketsil, KX
2022: 132-58 (1st)
Seasons in EL: all 33
Best finish: 1st (7 times)
Payroll: $182.8 million (1st)
The Oaks have become the first team to win three straight titles since the Semyof five-year streak in the first five years of EL play (1991-95). There was talk of a three-peat "curse" going around, given that Keleri had won two consecutive championships 4 times in that period, and the Oaks had done it once, without ever capturing a third.
Lineup (7th):
3B Netomue Kilutsa - LF Tula Misha - RF Peyaka Sefenera
1B Somp Awia - C Metsifu Olufapo - CF Nasi Salama
2B Mashual Rikokira - SS Tsorope Mametsiu
7th doesn't feel right, despite the clear deficiencies at CF and SS. Sefenera did take a step back in 2022 from his MVP season of 2021, but that's pretty common for MVP winners I suppose. A lot of really great defenders in this bunch, which might explain the gap - they're expected to score the 7th most runs, but probably will be better than the 7th-best position player group.
Rotation (7th):
Notsimi Feshasu - Kiosho Epofemi - Palfa Ninelhepi - Siteno Aefep - Talese Yelishike
This group has lost a step compared to last year. Epofemi and Aefep are coming off of long-term injuries, and Epofemi, Ninelhepi and Yelishike are all getting a little bit on the older side. Luckily, they have Notsimi Feshasu, the unanimous Pitcher of the Year winner in 2022. Tytsi Sofiulo, who made 101 starts for the Oaks over the past four seasons, was forced into retirement by injury, which could prove to be a big loss; or they could be fine, as they were in the last two months of last season.
Pecho Tsytemoi, acquired in a trade from Fampalo in December, is available to move out of the bullpen should anyone falter.
Closer: Autsu Sikiura (3rd)
Three different relievers were signed away from Keleri in free agency - Tsisa Onetatsa, Ifula Lolepechi, and Tsarase Tsofonisi, who should become an important late-inning option. Should be a top-class bullpen.
2023 prediction: 120-70 (3rd)
The Oaks were better last year than they were supposed to be, winning it all again. I don't think I can pick against them until somebody shows it can be done.
KELERI BC
Hefem, EM
2022: 112-78 (5th)
Seasons in EL: all 33
Best finish: 1st (12 times)
Payroll: $150.0 million (2nd)
5th place is almost uncharted territory for Keleri - it had been since 2013 that they had finished that low in the standings. In fact, the last five years have been 1st-2nd-3rd-4th-5th. Keleri still have not finished lower than 6th since the EL's inaugural season in 1991, though, so if you're expecting the bottom to drop out you're in the wrong place. More changes in the offseason than a Keleri team typically has, though this team will be elite as usual, and in fact, looks to have improved.
Lineup (1st):
2B Mapisiu Kohopa - CF Rarehimi Pohyfe - SS Atsi Keana
1B Ouler Tuemole - RF Shatso Reseke - 3B Meteshu Tsefufayalo
LF Lesayo Sofiulo - C Asasu Finyotsi
The infield/top of the lineup has been completely remade, with Kohopa making his Elite League debut coming up from 4th-tier Pitste and Tuemole coming over from relegated Hokrof BC. The big get, though, is Atsi Keana, formerly of Pasataki Galaxy, on a 5-year deal. Catcher is the one position that has definitely downgraded; Tupae Pufosa is a big loss, having gone to Fampalo, and Finyotsi comes over having been the backup to Metsifu Olufapo with the Oaks last year.
All eight players in the lineup are at least average EL hitters for their position, and Keleri is the only team that can say that.
Rotation (9th):
Kes Nokolo - Shaltseri Kalorotiha - Akosho Youti - Machechohy Yoshesi - Yirowe Wulowai
This is much shakier than the lineup, mainly relying on a youth movement. Nokolo, as mentioned previously, is the most highly-anticipated rookie in the league this season, and Kalorotiha is just in his 2nd year, with a good rookie year in his rearview mirror. Shykim Rekute will miss the first half of the season due to injury, so the elder statesman, 38-year-old Yirowe Wulowai, who quite literally was pitching at a high level before Nokolo was born, was brought in.
Closer: Toe Teshelo (2nd)
This is the league's best bullpen, and I think by a lot. There are 7 relievers back there who would probably be the closer for more than half of the Elite League. Teshelo coming over from Amnanache is probably overkill, I would've tried to spend that money on a starter (for all I know, they did do that).
2023 prediction: 126-64 (2nd)
If the young rotation pieces live up to the hype, they will win the title. I think it's as simple as that.
WESTLINE BC
Ransu, RA
2022: 88-102 (13th)
Seasons in EL: 26
Best finish: 1st (1999)
Payroll: $139.2 million (5th)
Oh, we haven't done Westline yet? That's weird. Having been promoted in 2021, and finishing a respectable 13th last year, the Westliners opened up the checkbooks this offseason, signing everyone they possibly could. It's been a while since they were elite, but they do have that history, winning the 1999 championship on a tiebreaker with Amnanache and finishing in the top 4 each year from 2003-2008.
Lineup (2nd):
LF Chatiri Shosotsoke - RF Nina Mukuapi - 2B Nukacholo Riseki
1B Wyshuo Aliso - C Epencho Posheni - SS Atel Chirao
CF Saryesi Sifoku - 3B Chop Riwihy
Mukuapi and Chirao have been here since the Second League days, and Aliso/Posheni were here last year, but it's quite a face-lift. Chatiri Shosotsoke is a highly-touted rookie, with afterburner speed and who looks like he could honestly hit .400 someday; Riseki was probably the best player in the Second League last year; Sifoku has never played in the EL, but has nearly 400 pro home runs despite being 24 years old; and Riwihy is a great complementary lineup piece, not the best #8 hitter in the league but close.
Rotation (1st):
Tula Mitonone - Sefti Merefife - Kwukasho Awia - Tune Chuotsa - Hoi Rerawe
Similarly, only two of these pitchers were at Westline last year. Mitonone is one of them, and is expected to take the leap forward into PoY contention, while Sefti Merefife actually won the PoY two years ago while with Tsapna. Kwukasho Awia is another highly-regarded rookie, although he looks to be less developed than Shosotsoke is in left. Chuotsa and Rerawe are not as strong, although the rotation will be further bolstered when Misote Tsumeratsi returns from injury in early May.
I don't think this is actually the league's best rotation, but it will be a pretty good unit. The top 2 rival any other team's top 2.
Closer: Chiamo Wirilen (15th)
Wirilen had a pretty bad season with Hokrof last year, but I chalk it up to a .340 BABIP. I don't think he's a bottom-half closer at all. The rest of the bullpen will be pretty good, with another intriguing rookie in Tsiteyne Yelishike lined up for the 7th-inning role.
2023 prediction: 129-61 (1st)
Overall, OOTP predicts Westline to be this year's title team, and I'm surprised to find myself saying that it could happen. Am I going to pick Westline myself... no. But they are definitely the team that made the biggest offseason improvement, by miles and miles.