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MLB MAILBAG
Early surprises and disappointments; Vitello already on the hot seat?

By MLB.com staff
04/13/2025

We're not more than a couple of weeks into the season, and it's been a bit of a mess to begin the season. Teams like the Rangers, Padres, Tigers, and Guardians are stumbling out of the gates, with others like the A's, Royals, Marlins, and Cardinals off to fast starts. But will they last?

Also, the Giants made headlines last week for a locker room dispute that made it to the light of day, but since that story came out, they have won five of six games and have righted the ship. Is Tony Vitello the right guy that can get San Francisco back to the postseason? Or is the college-straight-to-pro managerial road not the way to go?

Will Tony Vitello work in San Francisco?

The best managers generally are good at two things -- one, they tend to let players police themselves; and two, they know when to step in and mediate if things get out of hand. It's not unheard of for a former college coach to reach the highest levels in pro baseball, just see Pat Murphy and the job he's done with the Brewers. But what Murphy had that Vitello didn't is experience coaching professional players, whether that be in the minors or as an assistant for a major league team before becoming a manager.

In college, recruiting is the biggest part of the job, but that's not as big of a factor at this level. It stands to reason that he'd have a pretty large learning curve with handling veterans that are in their 30's with years of experience, MVP's, Cy Youngs, what have you. It's one thing if he was brought on with a young roster that he could grow into the role with, but dropping him in with little to no experience to handle a pretty veteran roster was a bold move on Buster Posey's part.

Will it work? Vitello is a pretty sharp baseball mind, but the game is filled with those guys. The biggest part of managing is exactly that, managing people, much like you would in an office setting. Maybe that's a bit too simplified, but it is a relevant corollary.

Which of the current first-place teams has the most staying power?

Let's put the Dodgers aside for the moment; they're a known quantity and we know what we're getting with them.

Being in what is likely the weakest division in baseball, Kansas City should at least make the postseason as a wildcard. Detroit is still the most talented team in that division, but the Royals defend much, much better and aren't a station-to-station team like the Tigers are. The Athletics might have the best offense in the league, but they've played in nothing but hitter-friendly parks so far and their pitching shouldn't be trusted over the long-term. At least not yet (more on that later).

St. Louis is a nice surprise. Kyle Leahy is a tough loss for their rotation, as they had pinned quite a bit of hope on him at least being a solid number-two or three in that group, but is likely going to miss the next several months or more after knee surgery. Outside of Jordan Walker, their outfield is really bad, like worst-in-the-league bad; and aside from Ryne Stanek, there's a ton of inexperience in the bullpen. In addition, the NL Central is arguably one of the two most competitive divisions in baseball, with the Cubs and Brewers as perennial contenders, with both the Reds and Pirates not your typical bottom-dwellers.

Finally, don't sleep on Miami. With Atlanta banged up for the time being, I like the Marlins to stay competitive in the NL East and wildcard races. Owen Caissie has shown he's big-league ready, and their lineup doesn't have a ton of real holes outside of possibly center field. Their middle relief is a concern, but if their solid starting pitching can give them six innings on average a game, they'll be a tough out for anyone as their bullpen's back end is very good with the addition of Pete Fairbanks over the offseason to close games.

Thoughts on the season so far? Surprises? Disappointments?

There have been some real surprises so far around the league. It's early, but the biggest (good) surprise so far has to be St. Louis. They're in sole possession of first place in the NL Central at 11-4; and while they have some real questions in their outfield mix that still need to be addressed, they're finally getting real contributions from Walker; and others like Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, and even rookie JJ Wetherholt have all been solid at the plate so far. Their pitching has been so-so and is probably going to be the reason they end up fading (and now they're down the aforementioned Leahy), but for the time being they look like a young, fun, athletic team, but ultimately won't have the roster depth to compete.

On the bad side of surprises, it has to be Cleveland. Outside of Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan, they can't hit. Former first-rounder Kyle Manzardo has been....fine? I guess? For the past few seasons, they've failed to put much around J-Ram, but it looks like the lack of aggressiveness in that regard has finally caught up to them. If the offense continues to scuffle into May and they drift further into the basement of an already-weak division, I would expect the Guards to start looking at potentially shopping Kwan and even perhaps Manzardo and Rhys Hoskins, their only major acquisition of the offseason.

Can this A's team be for real?

We considered putting this Athletics bunch as the biggest surprise, but given the kind of young talent they have throughout the lineup, it's not a huge shock their doing as well as they are. They don't really have a weak spot, unless you want to consider perhaps swapping Lawrence Butler out of the leadoff position. They rank in the top three league-wide in OPS, WAR, wOBA, hits, extra-base hits, and homeruns. They also run the bases well as they've already accumulated two extra runs (2.2 BSR+), so it's not just make baseball go boom.

However, their pitching is another matter. Their starters have thrown the fewest innings in the league (73); and not surprisingly, their bullpen has by far the most (80). It's not a sustainable way to win games, even with a lineup as good as theirs. Their best starter so far has been Jon Gray, and he's barely over five innings per start (15 2/3 in three starts), with a 4.02 ERA. And it's a fairly expensive rotation to boot with Luis Severino at just over $25 million this season AND a player option for $22 million next year, so it's likely they'll be on the hook for that unless they can get some kind of value for him at the deadline, or he decides to bet on himself this offseason and declines it.

Severino wasn't a bad pitcher last year, as playing at Sutter Health Park was detrimental to his surface numbers (4.91 ERA, 19 HRA), but did manage to post better FIP and SIERA marks of 4.22 and 4.09, respectively, plus a respectable 2.1 bWAR. The A's did try unsuccessfully to move him over the offseason; however, they may get more in return if he can turn things around and the A's fall out of the race.

In addition, they have Jeffrey Springs at a $10.5 million number, with Aaron Civale and his north-of-10.00 ERA coming in at $6 million this season. For most franchises, that's not a huge amount of money, but for the Athletics that's roughly 40% of their payroll. Severino alone accounts for nearly a quarter of their total 2026 payout, so if they can't find ways to get deeper into games, the season could go south in a hurry.