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Old 05-31-2026, 08:17 PM   #366
liberty-ca
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Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: New Westminster, BC
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THE HOT CORNER
Baseball coverage from the inside — Sacramento Prayers and the FBL

By Claude Playball | Baseball Insider & Analyst | Host, "Hot Corner" Podcast

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May 15 – 28, 2000 | Thirty-Four and Seventeen | Esparza Out Four to Five Months | Navarro's Hot Streak | Jeon Returns Soon

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RUBALCAVA IS RED HOT, 3-0 AND 1.95 ERA OVER HIS LAST FOUR STARTS


The injury list entering June has a different quality than the ones Sacramento managed in April and early May. Rodriguez's injury was sudden and devastating but singular. Jeon's back is slow to heal but the timeline, however extended, always pointed toward return. What the last two weeks produced is accumulation — Esparza's bone chips remove a reliable bullpen arm until fall, Lozano's second base collision inside two weeks raises genuine questions about the extent of damage that has not yet been formally diagnosed, Van Ham's shoulder inflammation adds another name to a roster already stretched thin at positions of need.

Against all of that: Rubalcava. Four starts, three wins, 1.95 ERA over those games, an eight-and-one-third inning gem at Baltimore where Garcia went five for six behind him. The pitcher whose April control breakdown generated real organizational concern has re-emerged as the rotation's best current performer, and the timing is exactly what Sacramento needed.

Thirty-four and seventeen. Nine games up in the AL West and tied with Detroit in wins. The infield is a rotating puzzle. The offense, however, keeps scoring.

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DID YOU CATCH THOSE GAMES? — WHAT THE SCORECARDS SAY


@ Las Vegas, May 15-16 (1-1)

May 15th: Van Ham hit a grand slam off Caballero in the first inning — four runs before Las Vegas had adjusted its pregame notes. Navarro went three for four with a two-run homer. Rubalcava threw seven and one-third innings. Eight to two.

May 16th produced one of the stranger results of the season. Sacramento trailed seven to four entering the tenth inning, then scored six runs to take a ten to seven lead. Las Vegas answered with seven of their own. Ke allowed five of those runs. Sakakibara's walk-off single brought in the winning run with two outs in the bottom of the tenth. Eleven to ten, Las Vegas. A game Sacramento led by three entering the final half-inning and managed to lose in the end.

vs. Long Beach, May 17-18 (1-1)

Espenoza's worst start of the year came on May 17th against Long Beach. He lasted two and one-third innings and allowed seven runs — Brown's three-run homer in the third the turning point. Lawson cleaned up over the next five innings. Four to seven, Sacramento's second consecutive loss.

May 18th: Andretti seven and two-thirds innings, three earned runs, seven to three win for Sacramento. Navarro doubled home three in the eighth with the go-ahead hit. Benson's eighth save. Sacramento split the Long Beach series.

vs. Columbus, May 19-21 (3-0)

Three games, three wins, the first featuring Navarro's two home runs inside the same start. He hit a solo shot in the first off Salviati and another solo shot in the eighth off Barajas. Five to four, Musselman earned the win with three scoreless innings. Lozano was injured in a base collision on May 19th.

May 20th was the offensive eruption of the stretch. Nine runs in the first inning against Columbus's Zeiders — four-fifths of a starter's work in a single frame. Florez had a home run and a double and drove in five. Shinohara hit his tenth homer. Sacramento won fifteen to four.

Strickler closed the Columbus series on May 21st with eight and two-thirds innings, two runs, seven strikeouts. Navarro homered again. Alvarez homered again. Six to two, Sacramento takes three of three.

@ Baltimore, May 23-25 (2-1)

The May 23rd win was a clean professional performance: Andretti seven and two-thirds innings, two earned runs, Garcia and Shinohara each driving in multiple runs, Chavarria and Lopez active on the bases. Ten to four.

May 24th: Jaime hit two home runs off Cruz. The first in the first inning, the second in the third. Six to two, Baltimore. Jaime now has twenty-two home runs and is batting .408. Cruz's ERA rose to 3.75 — not a disaster, but the pattern of Jaime specifically and elite power hitters more broadly exploiting his elevated fastball remains a scouting note that cannot be dismissed.

May 25th: Rubalcava eight and one-third innings, one earned run, Baltimore held to three hits. Garcia went five for six — singled, flied out, singled with an RBI, singled with an RBI, singled, singled. In the seventh inning the offense broke the game open against a fatigued Baltimore bullpen. Eight to one. The kind of complete performance that reminds the league Sacramento's baseline is not what its injury list suggests.

@ Houston, May 26-28 (1-2)

May 26th: Strickler threw seven good innings, allowed two runs and three home runs — the home run ball remains the recurring vulnerability in his otherwise solid outings. Benson allowed a two-run walk-off homer to pinch hitter Aldridge in the ninth. Four to three, Houston. Benson's second blown save of the season.

May 27th: Espenoza's second consecutive bad start. Five innings, five runs, three home runs including a Brady solo shot and a de Leon homer. Five to three, Houston takes the series lead.

May 28th: Florez hit two home runs in the first two innings. Sacramento led five to two after two. Houston scored back. The game went to extras tied at seven. Benson allowed a run in the ninth to tie it, escaped, and then Puga hit a three-run homer in the tenth against Pensado to give Sacramento the lead. Medina closed for his first career save. Ten to eight, Sacramento.

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RUBALCAVA: THE ROTATION'S BEST PITCHER IN MAY


Three wins in his last four starts. One-point-nine-five ERA across those games. His complete-game-quality performance at Baltimore on May 25th — eight and one-third innings, one run, a walk, five strikeouts — was as clean a start as Sacramento has seen from any of its pitchers this year. The walk rate is normalized. The ground ball rate in his May outings is among the best in the rotation. The command that deserted him in April has clearly returned, and the most plausible explanation is that whatever physical issue contributed to the April struggles has either resolved or been managed.

His ERA for the season has fallen from 5.15 at the end of April to 3.78. He is now 6-3. The gap between Rubalcava's May performance and his April performance is the clearest single indicator of the Sacramento rotation's ceiling — when Rubalcava is the version who throws nine innings of three-hit baseball, this is among the four or five best rotations in the FBL.

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FLOREZ: THE SEASON'S UNLIKELY OFFENSIVE STORY


Seven home runs. Thirty-one RBI. A .419 batting average. Great batting average of .400, with four home runs over his last eight games.

At some point the Florez offensive performance stops being an anomaly and starts being a description of a player. The knee that cost him most of 2019 has apparently healed in ways that restored not just his mobility behind the plate but the bat speed and timing that make him dangerous when pitchers fall into predictable patterns. His two-homer game at Houston on May 28th — with the team needing every run — was his third or fourth explicitly clutch offensive contribution in the last three weeks.

He is thirty-five years old. His batting average will regress. But the home run pace and the quality of his contact in high-leverage situations have earned something beyond the description of a hot streak.

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THE INJURY BOARD AS IT STANDS


Esparza: done for the season

Bone chip surgery on his elbow, four to five months out. Esparza had a 2.45 ERA and had been among the most reliable secondary relievers in the bullpen. His absence shifts the burden further onto Musselman, Ke, and Gonzalez — the three relievers whose results have been inconsistent. Musselman's recent numbers (0.55 ERA over eleven games) are encouraging, but his injury history carries uncertainty.

Lozano: pending diagnosis

He was injured in a base collision on May 19th, appeared in the Houston games apparently recovered, and was then re-injured again in another base collision on May 28th. The "diagnosis pending" notation on the injury report means the organization is still assessing the extent of damage. Two collisions at the same base in nine days involving the same player suggests either bad luck or an underlying issue — the outcome of the diagnostic work will determine how Sacramento plans for June and beyond. He is batting .278 with seven home runs and is among the team's most important offensive contributors.

Cruz: probably 2 more weeks remaining

The iliopsoas tendinitis that sidelined Gil Cruz on May 6th has been given a two-week remaining timeline on the IL. His return restores the second base position to its expected occupant and allows the infield configuration to normalize. The organization has managed without him through creative deployment of Puga, Garcia, Navarro, and Lozano across multiple positions — the return of an MVP-caliber second baseman would simplify those choices considerably.

Jeon: five days away from coming off IL

After the workout setback that extended his back spasm recovery by five weeks, Jeon has five days left on the IL. A healthy June return would give Sacramento a genuine rotation depth option and potentially free Strickler for rest when necessary. The back has been the season's most persistent medical concern, and whether the five-day countdown reflects full recovery or managed-return optimism will be visible in his first outing. It's expected that Leon would spend some time on rehab assignment in Oxnard.

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THE ROTATION: CONTEXT ENTERING JUNE


Andretti leads the rotation staff in ERA at 3.31. Rubalcava and Cruz are clustered closely behind. Strickler is at 4.31 but has bounced back after his rough two-week stretch with the Columbus shutout performance. Espenoza is the concern — 4.41 overall and trending badly with a 14.73 ERA over his last two starts.

The Espenoza situation requires context: his first five starts were excellent and his ERA entering his May bad patch was 2.59. What happened over the Las Vegas and Houston starts was a hitters' adjustment — they were sitting on his secondary pitches in ways that punished him for leaving fastballs elevated. Whether the coaching staff can work a correction before his next start matters. An Espenoza who pitches the way he did in April gives Sacramento five capable starters. An Espenoza who gives up seven runs in two innings is not a rotation asset.

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AROUND THE LEAGUE


Detroit and Sacramento are tied at 34-17, both at .667. Charlotte is 33-18, one game behind Detroit in the Central. Milwaukee at 34-17 in the NL matches the two AL leaders. These four teams constitute the class of the game at the end of May.

Brooklyn is the AL East leader at 34-16, a half-game better than both Sacramento and Detroit. The AL picture heading into June features three genuinely excellent teams — Brooklyn, Detroit, and Sacramento — separated by a game and a half.

In the NL, El Paso has emerged as a surprise Desert Division leader at 34-17. Vancouver has been quietly building a winning record in the Pacific Division. The NL wildcard race is congested with six or seven teams within four games of each other.

Boston has lost nine consecutive games and fallen to 22-30. Baltimore is 20-33 despite Jaime's transcendent individual season.

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THE INBOX


From Ekundayo Adebowale of Sacramento's North Highlands neighborhood, a pharmacist, who asks: "Florez is batting .419 with seven home runs. Is this a real breakout or something likely to regress significantly?"

Both things can be true simultaneously. The batting average will regress — .419 is not a sustainable rate against major-league pitching for a thirty-five-year-old catcher across a hundred and sixty games. The question is toward what number it regresses. If the answer is .310, Sacramento has an extraordinary offensive contribution from the catcher position for the remainder of the year. If the answer is .230, the month of May becomes a statistical outlier. The home run pace — seven in roughly fifty games — is the more durable signal, because power production from a healthy, experienced hitter tends to carry across sample size better than average. The knee that cost him most of 2019 has apparently healed well enough for full explosiveness in his swing, and that restored physical capacity is the mechanism behind the home run numbers. The batting average will fall. The power probably stays.

From Mirkka Virtanen of Sacramento's East Sacramento neighborhood, a software developer, who asks: "Rubalcava is 3-0 and has 1.95 ERA over his last four starts. What changed from April to now?"

The walk numbers are the clearest diagnostic. In April, Rubalcava walked fifteen batters over five starts — an abnormal rate for a pitcher whose career has been defined by precise command. Over his last four starts, the walk rate has returned to baseline. Fewer walks means more time in favorable counts, more time in favorable counts means better pitch selection, better pitch selection means opponents make weaker contact on pitches Rubalcava wants thrown. The outcome change from April to May is mechanistically explained by that sequence. Whether the April struggles reflected a physical issue that has since resolved, a mechanical flaw that was corrected, or simply a month-long deviation from his normal baseline is not publicly known. What is known is that the pitcher currently taking the ball every fifth day is the version Sacramento needs, and the fact that he is pitching this way in late May and early June matters more than the April record.

From Rosangela Ferretti of Sacramento's Land Park neighborhood, a retired opera singer, who asks: "Puga hit a walk-off three-run homer in extras against Houston. What is his role on this team right now, and is he earning more playing time?"

He is earning exactly the kind of playing time this roster situation makes available. With Rodriguez gone for the year, Cruz on the IL, Lozano uncertain, and Garcia shifting between positions, Puga has appeared in meaningful at-bats across multiple series and contributed clutch hits in each of them. The Houston tenth inning was the highest-profile moment, but the May 10th walk-off single against Seattle and various pinch hitting contributions across the month describe a player who is performing when called upon. His batting average is .417 in limited appearances, which is a small sample but a consistently productive small sample. The question of whether he earns a starting role depends on how the infield situation resolves — if Lozano's diagnosis is serious, Puga's case for regular plate appearances becomes significantly stronger. Manager Aces has shown willingness to insert him in high-leverage situations, which is the organizational signal that his contributions are recognized.

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Thirty-four and seventeen. Nine games up in the AL West. The road trip to Seattle and then to Portland begins Tuesday.

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Claude Playball is a baseball insider and analyst and host of the Hot Corner podcast, based in Sacramento, California.
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