Dante Culpepper Sucks / Evaluating QB's

sebastian0622 · 11-01-2005, 12:06 PM

Or ping: guy who was arguing with me before the infamous board crash.

In that thread not only did I predict a hefty decline for Culpepper's rating (and an increase in Collins') this season, I also pretty much pinpointed it by saying that Moss and T.O. are worth about 20 points of QB rating.

No, I didn't start the thread entirely to say, "Told ya so." I also wanted to discuss how difficult it is to evaluate quarterbacks. For instance:

Some of the next best receivers down from T.O. and Moss:

-How good would Carson Palmer be without Johnson?
-How good would Delhomme be without Smith?

You can really ask a lot of questions based on receiver talent. For instance, how good would Jake Plummer be with Moss or T.O? What about Mike Vick? If Michael Vick had Chad Johnson, would he have spent the past two years paving his way to Canton?

It just makes it really tough to evaluate QB's, and you have to think that the QB's who get in the Hall of Fame are products of their own abilities to an extent but also products of their WR talent. The same goes for every position, especially on offense, but I think QB stands out more than any other. 20 points of QB rating is about the difference between one of the best and one of the worst in any given season.

darkhorse · 11-01-2005, 12:09 PM

I'd guess that a good O-Line and running game are even bigger influences on QB rating.

sebastian0622 · 11-01-2005, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

I'd guess that a good O-Line and running game are even bigger influences on QB rating.

I thought about that. But that involves at least 8 other players (5 OL, RB, FB, TE...to a lesser extent WR). It's amazing that every QB involved with T.O. and Moss has been affected by about 15-20 points through just one player.

Garcia
McNabb
Culpepper
Collins
Frerotte (small sample, but still)

Your point is certainly not lost. However, the first team I thought of was the Ravens, and Kyle Boller sucked (statistically) when J-Lew ran for 2000 yards in '03 more than he sucks now and more than he sucked in 2004. It would make an interesting study, but I'm inclined to believe WR's play more of a role, especially when you consider it can be just one player.

Jonzard · 11-01-2005, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by darkhorse

I'd guess that a good O-Line and running game are even bigger influences on QB rating.

"

Not to mention the void from Linehan's leaving.
I think putting that much stock into the Moss trade shows a lack of knowledge in the situation as a whole. I am a huge Randy Moss fan, and am still upset he is gone, but placing this on the trade is miguided.

Sublimity · 11-01-2005, 12:22 PM

I agree. I think there are a lot of comparisons to be made between McNabb and Vick (and I'm a Falcons/Vick fan) in that McNabb was an inaccurate scrambler before TO got there. Now he's an elite QB.

But it goes only so far. Some quarterbacks are good quarterbacks regardless. Tom Brady, for example, doesn't have much to work with outside Deion Branch, and he still performed well when Branch was hurt. Delhomme still did all right after Steve Smith was hurt for all of last year, once he found Muhammed (but then how much can be attributed to Muhsin?). I have a feeling others would be crap no matter who you put around them.

I think the O-line is probably the biggest single determiner though. No one is effective with no time to throw the ball.

sebastian0622 · 11-01-2005, 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sublimity

I agree. I think there are a lot of comparisons to be made between McNabb and Vick (and I'm a Falcons/Vick fan) in that McNabb was an inaccurate scrambler before TO got there. Now he's an elite QB.

But it goes only so far. Some quarterbacks are good quarterbacks regardless. Tom Brady, for example, doesn't have much to work with outside Deion Branch, and he still performed well when Branch was hurt. Delhomme still did all right after Steve Smith was hurt for all of last year, once he found Muhammed (but then how much can be attributed to Muhsin?). I have a feeling others would be crap no matter who you put around them.

I think the O-line is probably the biggest single determiner though. No one is effective with no time to throw the ball.

But to use the Brady example, he's never been an elite statistical QB--probably because he's never had an elite WR. If he had an elite guy who fit their scheme, would he have been the one setting records instead of Manning with Harrison and Culpepper with Moss? So even though he's done well without one, it's hard to say how well he would have done with one.

Sublimity · 11-01-2005, 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

But to use the Brady example, he's never been an elite statistical QB--probably because he's never had an elite WR. If he had an elite guy who fit their scheme, would he have been the one setting records instead of Manning with Harrison and Culpepper with Moss? So even though he's done well without one, it's hard to say how well he would have done with one.

That's all well and fine, but I think it's pretty easy to say "QBs will be better with elite WRs, and not as good without them." The whole argument basically becomes a overrated/underrated QB discussion. McNabb = overrated because of TO, Matt Hasselbeck = underrated because his team has always been filled with ball droppers, that kind of thing.

Of course, the same could be said on the other side. Is Reggie Wayne really this good, or is it because of Peyton Manning, who I despise and hate at all referencing the potential for him to be good? Is Mike Vick not the best passer because he doesn't have good WRs, or are the WRs not performing well because Vick is throwing them the ball? There's a lot that has to go into it.

I have no idea what my point is in this post.

Jonzard · 11-01-2005, 12:41 PM

Can we say the same for the opposite? Does Randy Moss Suck? http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/player...s?statsId=4262

Hes on track for career lows.

My point is that every position on a football field depends on the rest of those around them. Sure, not having Randy Moss hurts Daunte, but to say "Daunte Culpepper sucks" is wrong. There are so many factors involved in a each player's success that attributing so much of it to simply the WR is something I disagree with. Hell, even the players on defense can make a QB look better. A team with a great defense gives the QB more time to work with and keeps an opposing team from keying on the passing game because the team always trails (like the Vikings this year).

sebastian0622 · 11-01-2005, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonzard

My point is that every position on a football field depends on the rest of those around them.

And my point is that Randy Moss won't go from the best WR in the league to one of the worst if he loses a good QB and vice versa.

Since my point seems to have been diluted a bit, I'll reiterate that every player on a team affects every other player. It's just that I find it amazing how two particular active players affect their QB's to the point of instantly moving "great" ones to poor ones when they leave, and instantly moving poor ones to "great" ones when they arrive. Basically, them leaving a QB can change them from a Hall of Famer to average, or from average to Hall of Famer. Moss losing Culpepper and gaining Collins hasn't moved him from a Hall of Famer to average.

sebastian0622 · 11-01-2005, 12:51 PM

dola,

You know Moss has been limited for most of the year--in terms of saying he's on pace for career lows. He was limited last year and set career lows with Culpepper. And you're wrong, he's on pace to beat last year's numbers.

Jonzard · 11-01-2005, 12:52 PM

But you keep thinking that the only change is that Moss left. The offensive line is in shambles, the running game is horrid, injuries abound (including Culpepper all season and his #1 Burleson), and what I think is the biggest factor, Scott Linehan leaving.

Jonzard · 11-01-2005, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

And you're wrong, he's on pace to beat last year's numbers.

He only played 13 games last year. Culpepper has been limited all year as well.

sebastian0622 · 11-01-2005, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonzard

He only played 13 games last year. Culpepper has been limited all year as well.

He's been limited both years; I'm just pointing out that your claim was wrong.

sebastian0622 · 11-01-2005, 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonzard

But you keep thinking that the only change is that Moss left. The offensive line is in shambles, the running game is horrid, injuries abound (including Culpepper all season and his #1 Burleson), and what I think is the biggest factor, Scott Linehan leaving.

Right. But everything was fine for 7-8 years through all kinds of personnel changes, then all of a sudden Moss leaves and it's in shambles? Kind of coincidental..

And the reason I say that is that it isn't just Moss leaving Minnesota. Look what happened to Jeff Garcia after T.O. left him. Look at what Collins did before Moss. Look for what McNabb did before T.O. Look what happened to Montana when he left Rice.

twins15 · 11-01-2005, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonzard

He only played 13 games last year. Culpepper has been limited all year as well.

He "played" in 13 games last year, but there were at least two or three other games that he could hardly run but he played in, which skews his stats further.

Vris · 11-01-2005, 03:33 PM

Brady was #2 in the league in passing yards before the bye week and before the <200 yard game Sunday night.

That has more to do with the ineffective Corey Dillon this year, but still.

Jonzard · 11-01-2005, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by twins15

He "played" in 13 games last year, but there were at least two or three other games that he could hardly run but he played in, which skews his stats further.

Good point

Skipaway · 11-01-2005, 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Look what happened to Montana when he left Rice.

What happened?

Spielman · 11-01-2005, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

And the reason I say that is that it isn't just Moss leaving Minnesota. Look what happened to Jeff Garcia after T.O. left him. Look at what Collins did before Moss. Look for what McNabb did before T.O. Look what happened to Montana when he left Rice.

Jeff Garcia isn't a good example, since he changed teams entirely. Besides, Garcia's passer ratings in the last two years before he and Owens left the Niners were 85.6 and 80.1. Last year in Cleveland he was at 76.7 and this year in two games he's got 75.0. A decline, sure, but he was already in serious decline before he left the Niners.

McNabb's rating certainly shot up, as has Collins's in a small sample size. As for Montana, I'm not sure I'd want to hang too much of an argument on a 37-38 year old guy who switched to another (worse overall offensively, not just in terms of not having Jerry Rice) team and still put up 87.4 and 83.6 as his ratings in his final two seasons.

sebastian0622 · 11-01-2005, 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skipaway

What happened?

He had the 2nd and 3rd lowest QB ratings of his career in two years in KC. And KC had a solid line and good running game (and even had decent receivers plus Kimble Anders), just no Jerry Rice.

11-01-2005, 12:22 PM	#5
Sublimity Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: This thread. Posts: 3,199	I agree. I think there are a lot of comparisons to be made between McNabb and Vick (and I'm a Falcons/Vick fan) in that McNabb was an inaccurate scrambler before TO got there. Now he's an elite QB. But it goes only so far. Some quarterbacks are good quarterbacks regardless. Tom Brady, for example, doesn't have much to work with outside Deion Branch, and he still performed well when Branch was hurt. Delhomme still did all right after Steve Smith was hurt for all of last year, once he found Muhammed (but then how much can be attributed to Muhsin?). I have a feeling others would be crap no matter who you put around them. I think the O-line is probably the biggest single determiner though. No one is effective with no time to throw the ball. __________________ mrs ria: I hereby dub Sublimity the Glorious Upholder of the 5B3. Current leading vote-getter in the Worst Poster in OT History poll.

11-01-2005, 12:41 PM	#8
Jonzard Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,647	Can we say the same for the opposite? Does Randy Moss Suck? http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/player...s?statsId=4262 Hes on track for career lows. My point is that every position on a football field depends on the rest of those around them. Sure, not having Randy Moss hurts Daunte, but to say "Daunte Culpepper sucks" is wrong. There are so many factors involved in a each player's success that attributing so much of it to simply the WR is something I disagree with. Hell, even the players on defense can make a QB look better. A team with a great defense gives the QB more time to work with and keeps an opposing team from keying on the passing game because the team always trails (like the Vikings this year). __________________ For a scientist must indeed be freely imaginative and yet skeptical, creative and yet a critic. There is a sense in which he must be free, but another in which his thought must be very precisely regimented; there is poetry in science, but also a lot of bookkeeping. — Sir Peter B. Medawar FTB

11-01-2005, 12:52 PM	#11
Jonzard Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,647	But you keep thinking that the only change is that Moss left. The offensive line is in shambles, the running game is horrid, injuries abound (including Culpepper all season and his #1 Burleson), and what I think is the biggest factor, Scott Linehan leaving. __________________ For a scientist must indeed be freely imaginative and yet skeptical, creative and yet a critic. There is a sense in which he must be free, but another in which his thought must be very precisely regimented; there is poetry in science, but also a lot of bookkeeping. — Sir Peter B. Medawar FTB

11-01-2005, 03:33 PM	#16
Vris Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: somewhere where I don't know where I am Posts: 3,251	Brady was #2 in the league in passing yards before the bye week and before the <200 yard game Sunday night. That has more to do with the ineffective Corey Dillon this year, but still. __________________ None Blog it.

11-01-2005, 12:06 PM	#1
sebastian0622 Banned Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 3,465	Dante Culpepper Sucks / Evaluating QB's Or ping: guy who was arguing with me before the infamous board crash. In that thread not only did I predict a hefty decline for Culpepper's rating (and an increase in Collins') this season, I also pretty much pinpointed it by saying that Moss and T.O. are worth about 20 points of QB rating. No, I didn't start the thread entirely to say, "Told ya so." I also wanted to discuss how difficult it is to evaluate quarterbacks. For instance: Some of the next best receivers down from T.O. and Moss: -How good would Carson Palmer be without Johnson? -How good would Delhomme be without Smith? You can really ask a lot of questions based on receiver talent. For instance, how good would Jake Plummer be with Moss or T.O? What about Mike Vick? If Michael Vick had Chad Johnson, would he have spent the past two years paving his way to Canton? It just makes it really tough to evaluate QB's, and you have to think that the QB's who get in the Hall of Fame are products of their own abilities to an extent but also products of their WR talent. The same goes for every position, especially on offense, but I think QB stands out more than any other. 20 points of QB rating is about the difference between one of the best and one of the worst in any given season.

11-01-2005, 12:09 PM	#2
darkhorse Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: fort worth, tx Posts: 10,850	I'd guess that a good O-Line and running game are even bigger influences on QB rating. __________________ "The Human Torch was denied a bank loan."

11-01-2005, 12:51 PM	#10
sebastian0622 Banned Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 3,465	dola, You know Moss has been limited for most of the year--in terms of saying he's on pace for career lows. He was limited last year and set career lows with Culpepper. And you're wrong, he's on pace to beat last year's numbers.