Giancarlo Stantaon mega$$$ deal???

Déjà Bru · 11-18-2014, 03:25 PM

I know that there is a thread about him in the OOTPB 15 General Discussion forum which may get moved here, but that started out as a request for longer than 10-year free agent deals in OOTPB.

So, here I ask this question: What do you guys think about this deal?

I'll tell you one thing on my mind. If you think he (or any ballplayer) deserves this much money, guaranteed for 13 years (AFAIK), then you cannot complain about how much it costs to take your family to the ballpark, or even how high your cable bill is, whether you watch baseball or not.

A bunch of other things are coming to mind as I type this . . . the over/under on what year the Marlins will begin suffering A-Rod-itis . . . just what is notoriously cheap Jeffrey Loria trying to prove and has he overdone it . . . but I'll let you guys discuss those things if you would like.

Giancarlo Stanton agrees to $325-million deal, Russell Martin signs with Toronto Blue Jays - Newsday

[Edit: please pardon the misspelling in the thread title.]

Goody · 11-18-2014, 04:53 PM

If teams don't go all out they go to the Yankees... or Dodgers... or Cubs what do you expect dude?

How long I been pulling for a salary cap and Yankee hating and getting ridiculed around here for my crazy ideas? Now you post this, why are you upset about it, your team is one of the beneficiaries of the practice. Or are you mad just cause you wanted Stanton on the Yanks.... (and be honest)

rudel.dietrich · 11-18-2014, 05:53 PM

I don't care about the money. $325 will seem low in a decade. I care about the length. It is impossible to predict 13 years ahead into the future.

13 years ago was 2001. Baseball has changed almost completely since then.

Lebron James 'deserves' $325 million over 5 years. The money issue for me is a non issue. Who am I to judge the worth of another human being? If the free market can support it, then why should I judge the worth of a human being or what they 'deserve'?
Kevin Durant in 2 years will be worth 200+ plus over 5 years.

I have real issues with this deal in terms of it hamstringing payroll for years to come. Odds are just not good that Stanton will remain productive enough over 13 years to justify the money.
Even if he wins a handful of MVPs. His years 32-38 will drag down his value to a point where he cannot possibly justify enough value to justify 'production per dollar'

The odds of him actually seeing out this entire deal, I put at 3% or below. I see him either retiring due to old age/injury. Declining to the point where the Marlins negotiate a structured buy out or the Marlins being bad to the point where he asks for a trade and the Marlins trade him and agree to pick up a % of his contract for the remainder of his contract length.

I understand the desire to tie up players long term. But the Marlins seem to be doing this out of a desperate attempt to remain relevant and even go as far as save baseball in Miami.
The team spent a lot of money in 2009 when the new stadium was finished and the fans failed to respond. They finished poorly in attendance that year.
Maybe professional baseball is just not cut out for south Florida.

Also, this to me is a great argument for advanced statistics/sabermetrics vs 'traditional thinking'
With enough data over the last 120 years and advanced prediction models, we can actually predict with a high degree of accuracy how Stanton's remaining years will play out and how he will age.
And the odds are not pleasant if you are a Marlins fan. This deal has far too much risk for the potential of gain.

Sports management is really very simple. It is all about using limited resources and applying them in such ways as to achieve the best possible outcome.
You have to use all the data you can to make decisions if the resources you sink into something have a better than average chance of justifying the output per resource unit sunk.
And you have to way in risk and opportunity cost.

What is the Marlins used this money and put it into 3 other players. Could those players produce equal or better production?
What is they had spent 40% of the resources in one player and gotten 65% of the production and then used the remaining resources in other areas.

Is getting 65% of his production enough? How much would you need to improve in other areas to make up for the remaining 35%?
How do you factor in diminishing returns? What is you paid 75% of Stantons salary for 90% of his production. Is that additional 10% worth
the 25% salary?
When you go up the production pyramid, each tenth of a percent becomes increasingly more expensive compared to the last tenth of a percent. This is simply because there are so few guys who can give you that top 10%
And it is why it is so important to find those young guys and overlooked guys. They can give you unexpected production if you can get them on a contract where they are not paid for it.

This is fascinating stuff to me. Especially as an economist where I deal in these exact same principals every day just in a different sector of industry.

So my long and detailed answer is. No, I do not like this deal

Leo_The_Lip · 11-19-2014, 11:43 AM

Read up on the details of the contract, folks. It is unlikely to run beyond 6 seasons due to opt outs.

Here's one decent source of info:

Giancarlo Stanton's $325M with Miami Marlins heavily backloaded - ESPN

stl jason · 11-19-2014, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leo_The_Lip

Read up on the details of the contract, folks. It is unlikely to run beyond 6 seasons due to opt outs.

Here's one decent source of info:

Giancarlo Stanton's $325M with Miami Marlins heavily backloaded - ESPN

so in short:

Loria will try to put together a championship calibre team over the next 5-6 years, since Stanton will only average about $17 mil per year. Once the opt-out year is reached (and Stanton's salary jumps to over $30 mil/year), Loria will resume he normal operating mode and dismantle the team to convince Stanton to walk away from the remaining $200+ million left on the contract and become a free agent.

TribeFanInNC · 11-19-2014, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stl jason

... Loria will resume he normal operating mode and dismantle the team to convince Stanton to walk away from the remaining $200+ million left on the contract and become a free agent.

Yeah, I think this part is etched in stone. I'm a little skeptical of the first part though. Not sure the Marlins can put together a championship team even if they tried.

stl jason · 11-19-2014, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

Yeah, I think this part is etched in stone. I'm a little skeptical of the first part though. Not sure the Marlins can put together a championship team even if they tried.

yeah, that's why I added "try" to that part. I can see him trying to bring in more talent... whether it's successful or not remains to be seen.

cephasjames · 11-19-2014, 12:49 PM

That article linked above doesn't say it specifically, but I heard the opt out options are all his, not the teams. What happens if he becomes a total tool and decides not to opt out and just makes Miami (or should I say San Antonio by that time

) pay him the big bucks?

TribeFanInNC · 11-19-2014, 12:58 PM

Then they will trade him. Somebody took A-Rod's contract. Somebody took Vernon Wells' contract. Somebody took Prince Fielder's contract. There is always somebody stupider than the deal.

Goody · 11-19-2014, 02:37 PM

Oh my god, MLB.com writers, quit already! They just resigned the guy they already had... story over.

11-18-2014, 03:25 PM	#1
Déjà Bru Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Long Island Posts: 11,613	Giancarlo Stantaon mega$$$ deal??? I know that there is a thread about him in the OOTPB 15 General Discussion forum which may get moved here, but that started out as a request for longer than 10-year free agent deals in OOTPB. So, here I ask this question: What do you guys think about this deal? I'll tell you one thing on my mind. If you think he (or any ballplayer) deserves this much money, guaranteed for 13 years (AFAIK), then you cannot complain about how much it costs to take your family to the ballpark, or even how high your cable bill is, whether you watch baseball or not. A bunch of other things are coming to mind as I type this . . . the over/under on what year the Marlins will begin suffering A-Rod-itis . . . just what is notoriously cheap Jeffrey Loria trying to prove and has he overdone it . . . but I'll let you guys discuss those things if you would like. Giancarlo Stanton agrees to $325-million deal, Russell Martin signs with Toronto Blue Jays - Newsday [Edit: please pardon the misspelling in the thread title.] __________________ - Bru Last edited by Déjà Bru; 11-18-2014 at 03:26 PM.

11-18-2014, 04:53 PM	#2
Goody Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: South Korea Posts: 3,530	If teams don't go all out they go to the Yankees... or Dodgers... or Cubs what do you expect dude? How long I been pulling for a salary cap and Yankee hating and getting ridiculed around here for my crazy ideas? Now you post this, why are you upset about it, your team is one of the beneficiaries of the practice. Or are you mad just cause you wanted Stanton on the Yanks.... (and be honest) __________________ In the past: Laseron Baseball Association creator. Present: I am Rezulm on PT and OOTP Discord. Future: I wish it was the past. Last edited by Goody; 11-18-2014 at 04:55 PM.

11-19-2014, 11:43 AM	#4
Leo_The_Lip All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 1,796	Read up on the details of the contract, folks. It is unlikely to run beyond 6 seasons due to opt outs. Here's one decent source of info: Giancarlo Stanton's $325M with Miami Marlins heavily backloaded - ESPN __________________ "My name will live forever" - Anonymous

11-19-2014, 12:49 PM	#8
cephasjames Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 8,736	That article linked above doesn't say it specifically, but I heard the opt out options are all his, not the teams. What happens if he becomes a total tool and decides not to opt out and just makes Miami (or should I say San Antonio by that time ) pay him the big bucks? __________________ 5000+ Generic Logos Free for the Taking FREE: Uniforms and logos for 500+ teams spanning 1871-present Great Lakes League: 10 Conferences, 100 Teams Pre-OOTP 23 Custom Cap & Jersey Template v3.0 by Deft and NoPepper (with layers from other various artists) that I use: Caps, Jerseys

11-18-2014, 05:53 PM	#3
rudel.dietrich Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Zürich, Switzerland Posts: 8,608	I don't care about the money. $325 will seem low in a decade. I care about the length. It is impossible to predict 13 years ahead into the future. 13 years ago was 2001. Baseball has changed almost completely since then. Lebron James 'deserves' $325 million over 5 years. The money issue for me is a non issue. Who am I to judge the worth of another human being? If the free market can support it, then why should I judge the worth of a human being or what they 'deserve'? Kevin Durant in 2 years will be worth 200+ plus over 5 years. I have real issues with this deal in terms of it hamstringing payroll for years to come. Odds are just not good that Stanton will remain productive enough over 13 years to justify the money. Even if he wins a handful of MVPs. His years 32-38 will drag down his value to a point where he cannot possibly justify enough value to justify 'production per dollar' The odds of him actually seeing out this entire deal, I put at 3% or below. I see him either retiring due to old age/injury. Declining to the point where the Marlins negotiate a structured buy out or the Marlins being bad to the point where he asks for a trade and the Marlins trade him and agree to pick up a % of his contract for the remainder of his contract length. I understand the desire to tie up players long term. But the Marlins seem to be doing this out of a desperate attempt to remain relevant and even go as far as save baseball in Miami. The team spent a lot of money in 2009 when the new stadium was finished and the fans failed to respond. They finished poorly in attendance that year. Maybe professional baseball is just not cut out for south Florida. Also, this to me is a great argument for advanced statistics/sabermetrics vs 'traditional thinking' With enough data over the last 120 years and advanced prediction models, we can actually predict with a high degree of accuracy how Stanton's remaining years will play out and how he will age. And the odds are not pleasant if you are a Marlins fan. This deal has far too much risk for the potential of gain. Sports management is really very simple. It is all about using limited resources and applying them in such ways as to achieve the best possible outcome. You have to use all the data you can to make decisions if the resources you sink into something have a better than average chance of justifying the output per resource unit sunk. And you have to way in risk and opportunity cost. What is the Marlins used this money and put it into 3 other players. Could those players produce equal or better production? What is they had spent 40% of the resources in one player and gotten 65% of the production and then used the remaining resources in other areas. Is getting 65% of his production enough? How much would you need to improve in other areas to make up for the remaining 35%? How do you factor in diminishing returns? What is you paid 75% of Stantons salary for 90% of his production. Is that additional 10% worth the 25% salary? When you go up the production pyramid, each tenth of a percent becomes increasingly more expensive compared to the last tenth of a percent. This is simply because there are so few guys who can give you that top 10% And it is why it is so important to find those young guys and overlooked guys. They can give you unexpected production if you can get them on a contract where they are not paid for it. This is fascinating stuff to me. Especially as an economist where I deal in these exact same principals every day just in a different sector of industry. So my long and detailed answer is. No, I do not like this deal

11-19-2014, 12:58 PM	#9
TribeFanInNC Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 4,019	Then they will trade him. Somebody took A-Rod's contract. Somebody took Vernon Wells' contract. Somebody took Prince Fielder's contract. There is always somebody stupider than the deal.

11-19-2014, 02:37 PM	#10
Goody Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: South Korea Posts: 3,530	Oh my god, MLB.com writers, quit already! They just resigned the guy they already had... story over.