How Do I Steal Bases Successfully?

LanceS · 05-25-2015, 11:15 AM

Having problems getting caught stealing. I'm playing deadball era, where average success rates are 50-60%; even so, I'm stealing only 1 in 3 bases so far

. I'm familiar w/the basics; runner steal rating, pitcher hold rating, catcher arm rating. What am I failing to account for?

Thanx in advance,

Lance

RchW · 05-25-2015, 11:53 AM

Hit and run, run and hit. Many steals come from both plays especially run and hit.

r0nster · 05-25-2015, 12:01 PM

I only do run and hit. The straight steal is annoying to me much of the time. Run and hit forces the runner to listen to me and move his butt.

jlking · 05-25-2015, 12:36 PM

I am not sure this carries over to the game, but oddly enough high velocity pitchers are easier to steal against than the slower pitchers. The pitchers in real life with the lowest steal ration have both low SO and walk numbers. For the worst pitchers, they collectively have a SO% of almost 22%, a BB% of 8.8%, and every guy averages at least 90 mph on his fastball.

I think it might have to do with delivery time. To get that high velocity pitch you will tend to wind up for a bit longer. You don't steal against catchers, you steal against pitchers.

I am not sure any of this is true in the game, but it might be fun to find out.

Cinnamon J. Scudworth · 05-25-2015, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jlking

I am not sure this carries over to the game, but oddly enough high velocity pitchers are easier to steal against than the slower pitchers. The pitchers in real life with the lowest steal ration have both low SO and walk numbers. For the worst pitchers, they collectively have a SO% of almost 22%, a BB% of 8.8%, and every guy averages at least 90 mph on his fastball.

I think it might have to do with delivery time. To get that high velocity pitch you will tend to wind up for a bit longer. You don't steal against catchers, you steal against pitchers.

I am not sure any of this is true in the game, but it might be fun to find out.

That's interesting. I'd guess that in real life, part of it also has to do with high velocity pitchers generally being younger, higher strikeout pitchers who are still learning to control the running game after being used to blowing everyone away.

jaysdailydose · 05-25-2015, 01:03 PM

Just curious, what kind of sample size are we looking at here? If it is a portion of a season or maybe even a full season, you could chalk it to variance. If we are talking multiple seasons, I'd probably ask you to post a screenshot of your "stats and ai" page in your league settings.

Also, is this league set for replay or for career play? I'd be much more worried if it was set replay style and I was getting these outcomes if I was playing with recalc and real stats, for example.

r0nster · 05-25-2015, 01:04 PM

take a look at the HOLD rating for the pitcher if low then run on them and if even combined with a LOW arm catcher. I would run with everyone.

LanceS · 05-25-2015, 01:05 PM

OK, I guess I'm not missing anything too obvious then. Been using 4 most of the time, mix in a fair amount of hit & runs, only used run& hit a couple times. Figured run & hit would have a slightly lower success %. I haven't played much, so maybe it's bad luck.

Off topic: just had a guy get suckered on a hidden ball trick after hitting a triple. Nice chrome.

Drayjones007 · 05-25-2015, 01:08 PM

r0nster is preaching the gospel on HOLD and catcher arm. Only thing I am curious about is, how many throw outs against you were on pitch outs?.,., I have found that even the best base stealers can get nabbed by some below average catchers on a pitchout. If that is happening to you, try and take pitches until the count is in your favor that he cant afford to pitchout, then RUN Forest RUN

r0nster · 05-25-2015, 01:13 PM

yes the pitchout is a gotcha moment but thankfully the AI doesn't pitchout everytime

WHEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!

r0nster · 05-25-2015, 01:14 PM

I should note that I double steal nearly 100% of the time unless the runner at first is slow like a catcher.

Drayjones007 · 05-25-2015, 01:17 PM

I do as well r0nster,. at times it almost feels like cheating at the success rate of it.

r0nster · 05-25-2015, 01:18 PM

Now you know why I do it dray ... they get me on the pitchout I get my revenge. Balances out at least. However I do get caught stealing sometimes my lead runner sometimes the trailing runner. better success rate though

rpriske · 05-25-2015, 01:22 PM

I always switch to pitch-by-pitch when I want to steal.

One there, never attempt to steal on the first pitch if you have high ratings... you will run into a pitch-out way too often.

I prefer to steal when 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1

It works pretty well.

NOTE: I am not a big fan of the engine for stealing bases in the game. It seems very hard to do BETTER than the normal margin, even if you do a better job at it.

LanceS · 05-25-2015, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

Just curious, what kind of sample size are we looking at here?.

Could be the issue; 15-20 games. I'm playing games out myself, so the issue isn't AI settings.

LanceS · 05-25-2015, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drayjones007

[H]ow many throw outs against you were on pitch outs?

Very few.

sreem · 05-25-2015, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LanceS

Could be the issue; 15-20 games. I'm playing games out myself, so the issue isn't AI settings.

I would echo what someone else said, take a look at the success rate of your team vs. league at the end of the season, and see how it settles out

jaysdailydose · 05-25-2015, 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LanceS

Could be the issue; 15-20 games. I'm playing games out myself, so the issue isn't AI settings.

Um, I said the "stats and AI" page. Which has the league totals that the league is supposed to hit in it, which definitely affects how many runners get thrown out and not, whether you are playing the games out or not.

But yeah, 15-20 games is obviously a super small sample size in the scheme of things... I wouldn't look anymore into it than bad luck or running in bad spots, at least at this point.

Check your league-wide numbers when you get to the halfway point.

The Game · 05-25-2015, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LanceS

Having problems getting caught stealing. I'm playing deadball era, where average success rates are 50-60%; even so, I'm stealing only 1 in 3 bases so far

. I'm familiar w/the basics; runner steal rating, pitcher hold rating, catcher arm rating. What am I failing to account for?

Thanx in advance,

Lance

Some deadball era guys would have 35 SB 30 CS. So to me your % is right where it needs to be. Don;t know when CS become an official stat but i started with 1915. I checked 1911, 1907 & 1906 and CS was not listed.

jlking · 05-25-2015, 06:26 PM

I was just reading the that the early years failed to capture 'caught stealing' stats. ‘Caught stealing’ records were kept only in 1914 and 1915 in the American League and 1915 in the National League. Further, it really isn't know how many stolen bases were really just a failed hit and run.

Maybe stolen bases in the dead ball era never really was as high as 57%. Between 1901 and 1910, a mere 50 stolen bases would have been enough to lead the American League. Maybe the game gets it right, and it is our expectations that are wrong.

05-25-2015, 11:15 AM	#1
LanceS Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 37	How Do I Steal Bases Successfully? Having problems getting caught stealing. I'm playing deadball era, where average success rates are 50-60%; even so, I'm stealing only 1 in 3 bases so far . I'm familiar w/the basics; runner steal rating, pitcher hold rating, catcher arm rating. What am I failing to account for? Thanx in advance, Lance

05-25-2015, 11:53 AM	#2
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	Hit and run, run and hit. Many steals come from both plays especially run and hit. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

05-25-2015, 01:03 PM	#6
jaysdailydose Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 2,325	Just curious, what kind of sample size are we looking at here? If it is a portion of a season or maybe even a full season, you could chalk it to variance. If we are talking multiple seasons, I'd probably ask you to post a screenshot of your "stats and ai" page in your league settings. Also, is this league set for replay or for career play? I'd be much more worried if it was set replay style and I was getting these outcomes if I was playing with recalc and real stats, for example. __________________ Manager - Motor City Marshals Perfect Manager/Discord Name: jaysdailydose

05-25-2015, 01:22 PM	#14
rpriske Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2012 Location: Spencerville, ON, Canada Posts: 26,668	I always switch to pitch-by-pitch when I want to steal. One there, never attempt to steal on the first pitch if you have high ratings... you will run into a pitch-out way too often. I prefer to steal when 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 2-1 It works pretty well. NOTE: I am not a big fan of the engine for stealing bases in the game. It seems very hard to do BETTER than the normal margin, even if you do a better job at it. __________________ Rusty Priske Poet, Canadian, Baseball Fan ````````````````````````````````````````

05-25-2015, 12:01 PM	#3
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,053	I only do run and hit. The straight steal is annoying to me much of the time. Run and hit forces the runner to listen to me and move his butt.

05-25-2015, 12:36 PM	#4
jlking Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 85	I am not sure this carries over to the game, but oddly enough high velocity pitchers are easier to steal against than the slower pitchers. The pitchers in real life with the lowest steal ration have both low SO and walk numbers. For the worst pitchers, they collectively have a SO% of almost 22%, a BB% of 8.8%, and every guy averages at least 90 mph on his fastball. I think it might have to do with delivery time. To get that high velocity pitch you will tend to wind up for a bit longer. You don't steal against catchers, you steal against pitchers. I am not sure any of this is true in the game, but it might be fun to find out.

05-25-2015, 01:04 PM	#7
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,053	take a look at the HOLD rating for the pitcher if low then run on them and if even combined with a LOW arm catcher. I would run with everyone.

05-25-2015, 01:05 PM	#8
LanceS Minors (Rookie Ball) Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 37	OK, I guess I'm not missing anything too obvious then. Been using 4 most of the time, mix in a fair amount of hit & runs, only used run& hit a couple times. Figured run & hit would have a slightly lower success %. I haven't played much, so maybe it's bad luck. Off topic: just had a guy get suckered on a hidden ball trick after hitting a triple. Nice chrome.

05-25-2015, 01:08 PM	#9
Drayjones007 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 53	r0nster is preaching the gospel on HOLD and catcher arm. Only thing I am curious about is, how many throw outs against you were on pitch outs?.,., I have found that even the best base stealers can get nabbed by some below average catchers on a pitchout. If that is happening to you, try and take pitches until the count is in your favor that he cant afford to pitchout, then RUN Forest RUN

05-25-2015, 01:13 PM	#10
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,053	yes the pitchout is a gotcha moment but thankfully the AI doesn't pitchout everytime WHEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!

05-25-2015, 01:14 PM	#11
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,053	I should note that I double steal nearly 100% of the time unless the runner at first is slow like a catcher.

05-25-2015, 01:17 PM	#12
Drayjones007 Minors (Single A) Join Date: Mar 2015 Posts: 53	I do as well r0nster,. at times it almost feels like cheating at the success rate of it.

05-25-2015, 01:18 PM	#13
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,053	Now you know why I do it dray ... they get me on the pitchout I get my revenge. Balances out at least. However I do get caught stealing sometimes my lead runner sometimes the trailing runner. better success rate though

05-25-2015, 06:26 PM	#20
jlking Minors (Single A) Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 85	I was just reading the that the early years failed to capture 'caught stealing' stats. ‘Caught stealing’ records were kept only in 1914 and 1915 in the American League and 1915 in the National League. Further, it really isn't know how many stolen bases were really just a failed hit and run. Maybe stolen bases in the dead ball era never really was as high as 57%. Between 1901 and 1910, a mere 50 stolen bases would have been enough to lead the American League. Maybe the game gets it right, and it is our expectations that are wrong.