Stealing Bases

xgeoff · 08-20-2015, 04:08 PM

Am having an issue I am wondering if someone can help shed some light on. My baserunners are being cut down left and right stealing second. I think 9 out of my last 10 steal attempts are outs.

I ONLY steal on catchers that have arms of 11 or less. Here are the stats for the baserunners I am stealing with:

Billy Hamilton, Speed 20, Stealing 20
James Jones, Speed 18, Stealing 18
Chris Taylor, Speed 13, Stealing 18

I am thinking that the odds should be heavily in my favor here. I'm thinking of this in terms of a game of dice rolls, but it just doesn't add up. BTW, the successful steal was carried out by Chris Taylor. Billy Hamilton and James Jones are cut down at every opportunity.

What is also weird is that when Hamilton was with the Reds, he led the entire league in stolen bases. With me he gets gunned out at every opportunity, and by guys with weak arms.

Also, none of these were pitchouts. I would totally understand if it was a pitchout.

Anyone with advice?

xgeoff · 08-20-2015, 04:15 PM

FYI here are the stats for the aforementioned guys for the entire season. Remember that I only steal on guys with an arm of 11 or less:

Billy Hamilton, 4 SB, 5 CS
James Jones, 4 SB, 5 CS
Chris Taylor, 10 SB, 9 CS

I am losing games because of this phenomenon. The ratings compared with the results just don't make sense. The three guys above should not have collective stats of 18 SB and 19 CS! By guys with crappy arms...

xgeoff · 08-20-2015, 04:19 PM

I should also mention that my catcher, who has an arm strength of 15, has been unable to throw guys out stealing 3rd. Now, these have been guys with 16 and 18 Steal rating but jeez, teams have a success rate of 100% against me stealing 3rd, and I have a catcher with a good arm.

xgeoff · 08-20-2015, 04:23 PM

I should also mention that Jacoby Ellsbury steals at will against me. Have never been able to throw the guy out. I throw over to first, I select the setting to hold runners, i can never get him. His ratings are really good, I think 18 Speed and 18 Steal, but my guys are similar.

For the year he has 19 SB and 2 CS.

xgeoff · 08-20-2015, 04:37 PM

Just found a thread about this. Looks like I may switch all of my stealing to Run-and-Hit and see what happens.

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...does-work.html

Assos · 08-20-2015, 04:54 PM

I was in the same boat as you were back in 13. Then I switched to the Run and Hit with Shoeless Joe and I had my first 100 SBs season!

xgeoff · 08-20-2015, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Assos

I was in the same boat as you were back in 13. Then I switched to the Run and Hit with Shoeless Joe and I had my first 100 SBs season!

OK, I will definitely try it!

xgeoff · 08-20-2015, 06:14 PM

LOL, immediate results. 2-2 in stolen bases against the Tigers.

xgeoff · 08-20-2015, 08:48 PM

Ugh, spoke too soon. Taylor caught stealing twice by the Tigers catcher in the next game. His arm is an 11.

RchW · 08-20-2015, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xgeoff

Ugh, spoke too soon. Taylor caught stealing twice by the Tigers catcher in the next game. His arm is an 11.

Did you steal at an appropriate strategic base/out state?

A silly question though. The combination of pitcher and catcher may be too good.

The Game · 08-21-2015, 04:26 AM

Run & hit works better then straight steal in 1 pitch mode. Stealing bases in pitch by pitch will give you a better success rate. Personal opinion with no real data to back this up, but it seems players will always steal more when they dont play for you or if you sim.

r0nster · 08-21-2015, 08:59 AM

Completely agree with the game statement to run & hit in one pitch mode. Success rate was higher but is a bit streaky which is ok

Lukas Berger · 08-21-2015, 10:06 AM

Look at the overall percentages in your league and I'm betting you'll see they're actually pretty accurate.

You can't just steal bases at will even with fast guys and slow catchers in real life.

You have a really, really small sample size there, and it's hard to tell anything conclusive from that small an amount of attempts.

How far into the season are you? If you're just a bit into the season, then you may just be running too much.

Of your examples f.e., Chris Taylor has 8 SB and 4 CS in his rl MLB career so far. James Jones 128/54 in his 6 year minor league career. So even Jones typically only runs 30-40 times in a single year in real life.

You're probably just running too much with them. It's important to pick your spots, which doesn't just mean going against catchers with low arm ratings. If you're running too much, teams expect it you will get thrown out more even by weaker catchers.

Bluenoser · 08-21-2015, 10:13 AM

Stealing a base involves a lot more than just being faster than a catcher can throw.

eg: A catcher doesn't need more than an avg arm if the pitcher has a quick delivery and his throws are accurate.

Also, check your league settings to see what SB Success % is set to.

xgeoff · 08-21-2015, 11:48 AM

Some great feedback here guys, thanks. I think that one of the things I am trying to point out is that my fast guys are thrown out all the time stealing 2nd while the computer's guys seem to steal on me with impunity. And my catchers have better arms and my runners have better ratings.

That, really, is my big issue. If I was able to throw Jacoby Ellsbury out as much as Billy Hamilton gets thrown out, I'd be a happy man.

DCG12 · 08-21-2015, 01:15 PM

The other component that you keep missing (or at least not mentioning in your posts) is the pitcher hold rating which combines with the catcher arm to get a result.

Izz · 08-21-2015, 06:24 PM

Doesn't the game also take into account a pitcher's hold runners rating?

ETA: whoops, missed post directly above mine. d'oh!

xgeoff · 09-14-2015, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DCG12

The other component that you keep missing (or at least not mentioning in your posts) is the pitcher hold rating which combines with the catcher arm to get a result.

I wasn't really clear on whether it affected stealing or not. I will bring that factor into my observations and see if it changes anything.

NoOne · 09-14-2015, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xgeoff

I wasn't really clear on whether it affected stealing or not. I will bring that factor into my observations and see if it changes anything.

it shoud results in a more honest lead-off when compared to a pitcher with a low hold ability, so i bet it affects the percentages in some way shape or form. it can be quantified to a fairly decent degree by the RL results.

the leageu totals modifiers can play a role too...

like others said, calculate league-wide SB success after the end of the season - and figure that single season total is still volatile

71.8-72.2% is a fairly good goal based on the last few decades, but you will need 50 or more years of data to know with confidence if you picked a good LTM for sb success.

i used to run long-simes to flesh this out. from what i read, the "Recalc LTM" option does a quicker 3yr type analysis to caclulate new mods based on current talent in the league? you could run that 10-20 times and average the results... i haven't tested this methed but it would be similar to 30-60 years if my memory of it's definition in the manual is accurate. this would be significantly faster than a 50-60 year sim.

RchW · 09-14-2015, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoOne

71.8-72.2% is a fairly good goal based on the last few decades, but you will need 50 or more years of data to know with confidence if you picked a good LTM for sb success.

Of all the LT and LTM settings available SB success, SB attempts et al are the easiest to reproduce. I've got extensive (decades of) data. I think reliable LTM based on reasonable (I use real life) LT can be achieved in 3 to 5 seasons. Obviously player creation and other settings must match what you want to achieve

08-20-2015, 04:08 PM	#1
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	Stealing Bases Am having an issue I am wondering if someone can help shed some light on. My baserunners are being cut down left and right stealing second. I think 9 out of my last 10 steal attempts are outs. I ONLY steal on catchers that have arms of 11 or less. Here are the stats for the baserunners I am stealing with: Billy Hamilton, Speed 20, Stealing 20 James Jones, Speed 18, Stealing 18 Chris Taylor, Speed 13, Stealing 18 I am thinking that the odds should be heavily in my favor here. I'm thinking of this in terms of a game of dice rolls, but it just doesn't add up. BTW, the successful steal was carried out by Chris Taylor. Billy Hamilton and James Jones are cut down at every opportunity. What is also weird is that when Hamilton was with the Reds, he led the entire league in stolen bases. With me he gets gunned out at every opportunity, and by guys with weak arms. Also, none of these were pitchouts. I would totally understand if it was a pitchout. Anyone with advice?

08-21-2015, 04:26 AM	#11
The Game Hall Of Famer Join Date: Feb 2012 Location: Inside The Game Posts: 30,937	Run & hit works better then straight steal in 1 pitch mode. Stealing bases in pitch by pitch will give you a better success rate. Personal opinion with no real data to back this up, but it seems players will always steal more when they dont play for you or if you sim. __________________ Go today don't wait for tomorrow It isn't promised, all the time you get borrowed Don't live your life for other people Don't bottle your emotions till they crack and fill a couple just sorrows Take your mind and refocus go get a paper write your goals out Throw your middle fingers to all your haters "Stay Strong"

08-21-2015, 10:06 AM	#13
Lukas Berger OOTP Developments Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Nice, Côte d'Azur, France Posts: 21,363	Look at the overall percentages in your league and I'm betting you'll see they're actually pretty accurate. You can't just steal bases at will even with fast guys and slow catchers in real life. You have a really, really small sample size there, and it's hard to tell anything conclusive from that small an amount of attempts. How far into the season are you? If you're just a bit into the season, then you may just be running too much. Of your examples f.e., Chris Taylor has 8 SB and 4 CS in his rl MLB career so far. James Jones 128/54 in his 6 year minor league career. So even Jones typically only runs 30-40 times in a single year in real life. You're probably just running too much with them. It's important to pick your spots, which doesn't just mean going against catchers with low arm ratings. If you're running too much, teams expect it you will get thrown out more even by weaker catchers. Last edited by Lukas Berger; 08-21-2015 at 10:54 AM.

08-21-2015, 10:13 AM	#14
Bluenoser Hall Of Famer Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: In The Moment Posts: 14,209	Stealing a base involves a lot more than just being faster than a catcher can throw. eg: A catcher doesn't need more than an avg arm if the pitcher has a quick delivery and his throws are accurate. Also, check your league settings to see what SB Success % is set to. Last edited by Bluenoser; 08-21-2015 at 10:57 AM.

08-21-2015, 06:24 PM	#17
Izz Hall Of Famer Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,470	Doesn't the game also take into account a pitcher's hold runners rating? ETA: whoops, missed post directly above mine. d'oh! __________________ Not only do I play OOTP but I also write science-fiction: My Website A brief history of the Australia-New Zealand Baseball League (AUNZBL 2019-2119)--A Dynasty Report The National Penterham Four-Bases Association--A Dynasty Report

08-20-2015, 04:15 PM	#2
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	FYI here are the stats for the aforementioned guys for the entire season. Remember that I only steal on guys with an arm of 11 or less: Billy Hamilton, 4 SB, 5 CS James Jones, 4 SB, 5 CS Chris Taylor, 10 SB, 9 CS I am losing games because of this phenomenon. The ratings compared with the results just don't make sense. The three guys above should not have collective stats of 18 SB and 19 CS! By guys with crappy arms...

08-20-2015, 04:19 PM	#3
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	I should also mention that my catcher, who has an arm strength of 15, has been unable to throw guys out stealing 3rd. Now, these have been guys with 16 and 18 Steal rating but jeez, teams have a success rate of 100% against me stealing 3rd, and I have a catcher with a good arm.

08-20-2015, 04:23 PM	#4
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	I should also mention that Jacoby Ellsbury steals at will against me. Have never been able to throw the guy out. I throw over to first, I select the setting to hold runners, i can never get him. His ratings are really good, I think 18 Speed and 18 Steal, but my guys are similar. For the year he has 19 SB and 2 CS.

08-20-2015, 04:37 PM	#5
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	Just found a thread about this. Looks like I may switch all of my stealing to Run-and-Hit and see what happens. http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...does-work.html

08-20-2015, 04:54 PM	#6
Assos All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Just on the fair side of the foul pole! Posts: 1,772	I was in the same boat as you were back in 13. Then I switched to the Run and Hit with Shoeless Joe and I had my first 100 SBs season!

08-20-2015, 06:14 PM	#8
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	LOL, immediate results. 2-2 in stolen bases against the Tigers.

08-20-2015, 08:48 PM	#9
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	Ugh, spoke too soon. Taylor caught stealing twice by the Tigers catcher in the next game. His arm is an 11.

08-21-2015, 08:59 AM	#12
r0nster Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Location: Michigan Posts: 3,053	Completely agree with the game statement to run & hit in one pitch mode. Success rate was higher but is a bit streaky which is ok

08-21-2015, 11:48 AM	#15
xgeoff Minors (Single A) Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 57	Some great feedback here guys, thanks. I think that one of the things I am trying to point out is that my fast guys are thrown out all the time stealing 2nd while the computer's guys seem to steal on me with impunity. And my catchers have better arms and my runners have better ratings. That, really, is my big issue. If I was able to throw Jacoby Ellsbury out as much as Billy Hamilton gets thrown out, I'd be a happy man.

08-21-2015, 01:15 PM	#16
DCG12 All Star Starter Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Traveling through another dimension-not one of only sight and sound,but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundries are those of imagination. Posts: 1,161	The other component that you keep missing (or at least not mentioning in your posts) is the pitcher hold rating which combines with the catcher arm to get a result.