Does This Happen Often ?

MghFond · 06-30-2016, 01:13 AM

Im well along in my first season of this great game - Im playing the Detroit Tigers of the 1967 season, which had one of the all time great AL pennant races in history.
Now my Tigers who finished second to the Red Sox are doing great, 22 games over .500 in late July. But the pennant winning Red Sox are like 12 games behind. But here is the part that bothers me.

The Baltimore Orioles are 3 games ahead of my Tigers with the best record in baseball and this coming from a team that historically finished in 7th place out of 10 teams.
These guys are incredible. I wouldn't mind losing the pennant race to a team like Boston or the Twins who really were in it right to almost the end, Detroit lost on the last day and the Red Sox won by 1 game.

But to see what should be a bad Oriole team dominate the league...it's tough to swallow.

Does this happen a lot in historical seasons?

David Watts · 06-30-2016, 08:45 AM

Not sure if I will ever think of OOTP as a single season replay game in the realm of DMB, ActionPC or Strat. It's a career sim. So, I don't think one can be too surprised if a team over/under achieves.

That being said, how are you doing your replay? Are you using real lineups? If you aren't using real lineups are you allowing trades? Injuries? Development on or off. Do you have pitchers roles set to imported season, 3 year period or career? Same for fielders? There are just so many factors that can play into changing a teams performance.

I know there are a few folks(Swampdragon for one) that use real lineups. I think those folks would be the ones to ask about teams whether or not teams over/under achieve too often. One thing I will say though, if you play out careers you will be amazed at how well OOTP simulates the overall career of a player. Oh gosh, I'm a fanboy

Reed · 06-30-2016, 01:13 PM

Even single season games like SOM and action PC (I've never played DMB) can have interesting results. A situation like this would be unusual but it happens in SOM/Action PC and OOTP. I think OOTP does play single season replay about as well as the others (depending on your settings as David said)
It sound like you have a great pennant race going. See if the Orioles can hold on or will they fold in Aug. like a lot of teams IRL.

MightyVotto · 07-01-2016, 09:16 AM

I've been using real transactions/real lineups for a few years. There are often differences in how a season plays out from the historical outcome. For example, I saw the Reds go to back to back World Series in the mid-20s, winning one of them.

More often than nought, though, if you have set it up correctly to emulate single season historical replay, you'll get really close to actual performance. I think if the league's pennant race was a close one in a given year, the results can really be different. I've tried seeing if the '90 Reds would repeat their historical performance, but I've never seen the results play out that way when I replay that year. It just goes to show how hard it is to predict this game from one year to the next. That '90 Reds team just had luck on its side that year.

thehef · 07-01-2016, 04:55 PM

Also, keep in mind that the 1967 season was a bit of an aberration for the O's in that they were a high-win, contending team every other year from 1964 thru 1971. So you've got to figure that the cast of characters on the 1967 team was pretty much pennant-worthy (as evidenced by their 88-73 Pythagorean W/L).

And now that I think about it, given that OOTP-as-a-historical-replay is stats-driven, in looking at the Pythagorean W/L I am not at all surprised that your '67 O's are contending. Basically, from a stats perspective the '67 O's were much-closer to a 90+ win contender than they were to a 76-win, 7th place team.

thehef · 07-01-2016, 07:38 PM

On the team standings page, baseball-reference.com tracks the difference between Actual W/L records and Pythagorean W/L records as "Luck" - and the '67 O's posted the 3rd worst "Luck" number (-12) in the history of baseball's Modern Era, surpassed only by the '93 Mets (-14) and the '86 Pirates (-13).

In all, 25 teams in history have posted a double-digit "Luck" number, including the three teams noted above and the 1972 O's.

So if the '67 & '72 O's had experienced some average "Luck" they could've achieved a mind-boggling 20-year stretch (1964 thru 1983) where they won at least 90 games 18 times, were on a 91-win pace for the strike-shorted 1981 season, and won 88 games the only other season (1976)... You can bookend this with 86 wins in 1963 and 85 wins in 1984...

Not a bad era to be an Oriole fan...

swampdragon · 07-02-2016, 11:01 AM

I'm playing the 1956 season on one of the single season competitors, and the Tigers are ahead by a couple of games on July 20. The Yankees are in second place, and I'd give odds they will catch them before the end. A few things to remember:

1. Any team can win any one game or series, just like real life.
2. The end of July is not the end of September, History is littered with surprise teams that collapsed in August and September.
3. The dividing line is about 10 games, but that's Pythagorean W-L. Over half the teams in the AL could easily have won that year, and the Orioles are one of those teams.
4. If you don't use historical transactions and lineups, that's an additional variable. If you have unhistorical injuries, that's still another.
5. Play the season and embrace the differences. That's why you picked the season, after all. If you want a winning favorite, play the 1927 AL.

Chillidog · 07-07-2016, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MghFond

Im well along in my first season of this great game - Im playing the Detroit Tigers of the 1967 season, which had one of the all time great AL pennant races in history.
Now my Tigers who finished second to the Red Sox are doing great, 22 games over .500 in late July. But the pennant winning Red Sox are like 12 games behind. But here is the part that bothers me.

The Baltimore Orioles are 3 games ahead of my Tigers with the best record in baseball and this coming from a team that historically finished in 7th place out of 10 teams.
These guys are incredible. I wouldn't mind losing the pennant race to a team like Boston or the Twins who really were in it right to almost the end, Detroit lost on the last day and the Red Sox won by 1 game.

But to see what should be a bad Oriole team dominate the league...it's tough to swallow.

Does this happen a lot in historical seasons?

Also remember that the 1966 Orioles were the best team in the AL and won the 1966 World Series 4 games to 0

so they had an awesome team even in 1967, though underperformed in 1967. But I am certain there is a residual effect in the OOTP game due to their previous seasons success. So I am not at all surprised they are doing good in your 1967 sim

06-30-2016, 01:13 AM	#1
MghFond Bat Boy Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 10	Does This Happen Often ? Im well along in my first season of this great game - Im playing the Detroit Tigers of the 1967 season, which had one of the all time great AL pennant races in history. Now my Tigers who finished second to the Red Sox are doing great, 22 games over .500 in late July. But the pennant winning Red Sox are like 12 games behind. But here is the part that bothers me. The Baltimore Orioles are 3 games ahead of my Tigers with the best record in baseball and this coming from a team that historically finished in 7th place out of 10 teams. These guys are incredible. I wouldn't mind losing the pennant race to a team like Boston or the Twins who really were in it right to almost the end, Detroit lost on the last day and the Red Sox won by 1 game. But to see what should be a bad Oriole team dominate the league...it's tough to swallow. Does this happen a lot in historical seasons?

07-02-2016, 11:01 AM	#7
swampdragon Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Lonely Mountain Posts: 2,509	I'm playing the 1956 season on one of the single season competitors, and the Tigers are ahead by a couple of games on July 20. The Yankees are in second place, and I'd give odds they will catch them before the end. A few things to remember: 1. Any team can win any one game or series, just like real life. 2. The end of July is not the end of September, History is littered with surprise teams that collapsed in August and September. 3. The dividing line is about 10 games, but that's Pythagorean W-L. Over half the teams in the AL could easily have won that year, and the Orioles are one of those teams. 4. If you don't use historical transactions and lineups, that's an additional variable. If you have unhistorical injuries, that's still another. 5. Play the season and embrace the differences. That's why you picked the season, after all. If you want a winning favorite, play the 1927 AL. __________________ “Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies." -- C.S. Lewis

06-30-2016, 08:45 AM	#2
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,704 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Not sure if I will ever think of OOTP as a single season replay game in the realm of DMB, ActionPC or Strat. It's a career sim. So, I don't think one can be too surprised if a team over/under achieves. That being said, how are you doing your replay? Are you using real lineups? If you aren't using real lineups are you allowing trades? Injuries? Development on or off. Do you have pitchers roles set to imported season, 3 year period or career? Same for fielders? There are just so many factors that can play into changing a teams performance. I know there are a few folks(Swampdragon for one) that use real lineups. I think those folks would be the ones to ask about teams whether or not teams over/under achieve too often. One thing I will say though, if you play out careers you will be amazed at how well OOTP simulates the overall career of a player. Oh gosh, I'm a fanboy

06-30-2016, 01:13 PM	#3
Reed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,339	Even single season games like SOM and action PC (I've never played DMB) can have interesting results. A situation like this would be unusual but it happens in SOM/Action PC and OOTP. I think OOTP does play single season replay about as well as the others (depending on your settings as David said) It sound like you have a great pennant race going. See if the Orioles can hold on or will they fold in Aug. like a lot of teams IRL.

07-01-2016, 09:16 AM	#4
MightyVotto Minors (Double A) Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 125	I've been using real transactions/real lineups for a few years. There are often differences in how a season plays out from the historical outcome. For example, I saw the Reds go to back to back World Series in the mid-20s, winning one of them. More often than nought, though, if you have set it up correctly to emulate single season historical replay, you'll get really close to actual performance. I think if the league's pennant race was a close one in a given year, the results can really be different. I've tried seeing if the '90 Reds would repeat their historical performance, but I've never seen the results play out that way when I replay that year. It just goes to show how hard it is to predict this game from one year to the next. That '90 Reds team just had luck on its side that year.

07-01-2016, 04:55 PM	#5
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,345	Also, keep in mind that the 1967 season was a bit of an aberration for the O's in that they were a high-win, contending team every other year from 1964 thru 1971. So you've got to figure that the cast of characters on the 1967 team was pretty much pennant-worthy (as evidenced by their 88-73 Pythagorean W/L). And now that I think about it, given that OOTP-as-a-historical-replay is stats-driven, in looking at the Pythagorean W/L I am not at all surprised that your '67 O's are contending. Basically, from a stats perspective the '67 O's were much-closer to a 90+ win contender than they were to a 76-win, 7th place team.

07-01-2016, 07:38 PM	#6
thehef Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 5,345	On the team standings page, baseball-reference.com tracks the difference between Actual W/L records and Pythagorean W/L records as "Luck" - and the '67 O's posted the 3rd worst "Luck" number (-12) in the history of baseball's Modern Era, surpassed only by the '93 Mets (-14) and the '86 Pirates (-13). In all, 25 teams in history have posted a double-digit "Luck" number, including the three teams noted above and the 1972 O's. So if the '67 & '72 O's had experienced some average "Luck" they could've achieved a mind-boggling 20-year stretch (1964 thru 1983) where they won at least 90 games 18 times, were on a 91-win pace for the strike-shorted 1981 season, and won 88 games the only other season (1976)... You can bookend this with 86 wins in 1963 and 85 wins in 1984... Not a bad era to be an Oriole fan...