Too many starting pitchers drafted early?

GmOfTheYear · 04-25-2018, 11:18 AM

I am wondering if anyone has an issue with so many starting pitchers and even closers going early in the draft. I've seen something crazy like 11 SP and 2 RP in the top 13 picks. Either there aren't enough good hitters or the game is overdoing it on the sp's. What do you guys think? Or is this an issue they are working on right now?

Qeltar · 04-25-2018, 11:27 AM

I think SPs going early is pretty realistic.

I'm new to the game but I've noticed that good SPs are very hard to come by, while RPs are plentiful and sometimes even good ones are undervalued by the AI.

Again, this makes sense to me. Good, consistent SPs are hard to find. And prospects tend to be very risky.

I'm trying to improve my rotation in my first year and it's an upward battle. Many times teams with 1 star current and 3 star potential SPs won't trade them for anyone I have 1-on-1. Really good SPs seem to be impossible to get without giving away the farm.

NoOne · 04-25-2018, 11:59 AM

gm sliders that probably heavily prefer pitching on those teams.. if it doesn't work they'll lose their jobs shortly

and likely will unless they joined a team with heaving offense and for acouple years it might mesh well...

it's all very similar to RL.. ~40rounds and if you get 1-2-3 serviceable guys per year from the draft, you are doing really well. (excluding bench players and depth--serviceable in this context means willing to use them often in games or able to trade etc)

the draft is a lesson in futility, lol... like cold-calling... 99 no's and a yes.

the only time you should feel ~50% confident about a pick is the first 10-20 picks of any draft depending on the depth that particular year.

Reed · 04-26-2018, 03:48 PM

Are you playing historical or fictional? If historical, there has been discussion of it in the historical section of the forum and in the data base issues section of the tech support. If historical, is pre defined draft values selected or is this for the inaugural draft? There is suppose to be some tweaks for this if playing historical in an upcoming patch.

Calvert98 · 04-26-2018, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qeltar

I think SPs going early is pretty realistic.

I'm new to the game but I've noticed that good SPs are very hard to come by, while RPs are plentiful and sometimes even good ones are undervalued by the AI.

Again, this makes sense to me. Good, consistent SPs are hard to find. And prospects tend to be very risky.

Agreed.

And you need to pick your own strategy. I'm not fond of drafting big-up-side SPs out of High School early in the draft, so I will often look for College guys in very high competition leagues, who can move up the system rapidly.

Not that I'm opposed to SPs right out of HS; it's just I'd rather wait till after the first 10 rounds or so before I will consider it.

I also keep in mind the IFAs; I will more likely take chance on a posted pitcher from Japan for example, who has high ratings and an outstanding record in the ***.

Qeltar · 04-26-2018, 09:21 PM

I haven't gotten to posted pitchers yet, but I've seen a number of guys on other teams who came from that route, so I am hoping for the best.

Good SPs are scarcer than hen's teeth, and all the victims falling into the waiting rooms of Frank Jobe proteges is not helping.

During my amateur draft I actively hunted for hitters with potential as pitchers. I have a couple of RPs I want to try to convert to SPs but it always goes bad even when it shouldn't. (Chad Green used to be a starter, and has four solid pitches, but he just doesn't do well in the rotation for me for whatever reason. Maybe that's why the Yankees don't use him that way either even though they too need starters far more than relievers.)

Calvert98 · 04-26-2018, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Qeltar

I haven't gotten to posted pitchers yet, but I've seen a number of guys on other teams who came from that route, so I am hoping for the best.

Good SPs are scarcer than hen's teeth, and all the victims falling into the waiting rooms of Frank Jobe proteges is not helping.

I hear ya.

I’m on my third year as GM/manager of my current team, as I imported a 2017 MLB Orioles start from OOTP 18 to OOTP 19.

I was lucky to pick-up a IFA SP, not the best of the IFAs, but like #2 or #3 from the ***, who was around 26. Last year, he won Rookie of the Year. This year, he has regressed, but I think he will still come in around a high 4 ERA.

Overall however, it has been a bad year for my pitching staff. Last year they were ranked 1 or 2 in the American league for Starters ERA; this year, they are around 10th. One guy just went completely off the rails, and another was hurt; I was surprised how little depth I actually had in AAA, to your point about not having enough SP talent overall. This then caused me to over-use my #3 guy (Gausman,who really improved last year), who then started to go sideways as well. I think my pitching coach isn’t the best either and there may have been some acrimony with the Bench coach. Then my bullpen started having issues as well, due to overuse; it didn’t help that I put my go-to long RP guy into the rotation trying to patch things up (and he had been pinning for a starting role).

I feel like I learned a lot about this rotation and even some strategy through this process. I’m certainly going to reload AAA and add a lot more system depth next year.

Qeltar · 04-26-2018, 10:49 PM

I was surprised checking just now to find that my starters' ERA is 5th in the NL. But some are outperforming their ratings, and this is also due to some very heavy micromanagement on my part. I've assembled a very good bullpen (7th in the NL but that's inflated by a few guys I have left in to soak innings during blowouts) and I have a very quick hook.

Even so, this staff is not exactly amazing on paper. All the guys are 1.5 to 2.5 stars currently, and at least one is a converted RP. It was assembled from spit and bailing wire. When I started, I had a 1 star guy who never belonged higher than AAA in the rotation, for example.

As the thread says, the few good SPs were gone before I even got my first draft pick (Miami had the worst of both worlds: won enough games last year to get only 13th overall, then gutted their team). The IFA pool had no SPs worth spending money on. I've done a bunch of trading and tinkering but most of my decent SP prospects are a ways out.

I did just pick up Carson Fulmer, which the ChiSox for some reason decided they were done with. He needs a year and then maybe will be pretty good.

Trying to get a true "ace" SP is nearly impossible. There aren't even any slated to come up as free agents for next year in my game -- the only decent one is Keuchel and he's not exactly an ace. So we muddle through.

I'm swimming in good RPs and the AI seems to undervalue them so I may just go with "try to survive five or six" and then use lots of bullpen arms. But the long stretches without days off, and the weakness of the game when it comes to swing men, makes this a challenge.

The walks with these inferior pitchers are infuriating. I hate walks. Finding anyone with good stuff who can also throw strikes is so hard, SP or RP.

It doesn't help that my offense sucks. And the last few games we've been slumping, even when they hit the ball hard, it's all "at-ems".

ETA: And there goes my latest idiot starter, 1 1/3 in and already 3 hits, a home run and a walk. Meanwhile my guys are doing nothing against their SP, who has an ERA twice as high. No wonder managers have gray hair.. if they have any left at all.

And another game lost to fail pitching and no offense. I think I got spoiled when we had a win streak in early July. I should have known this team simply isn't good enough to stay more than within 1 or 2 games of .500.. or worse. Grr.

Qeltar · 04-26-2018, 11:21 PM

Aaaand the one starter I had on contract for a few years (with the team I traded for him picking up much of the salary) just got some BS injury and is out not just for the rest of this year but into next year as well.

Right after I spent a fortune on the best trainer available...

Why am I doing this again.

(I think I got too wrapped up in this season and forgot my original long-term goals...)

Calvert98 · 04-28-2018, 07:20 AM

Long-term goals do start to get lost in bad situations. My Orioles won the division in 2019, but last year (2018), was a 100 loss season (and that was in OOTP 18); Some things I did last year going into 2019 in retrospect were short-term, aside from extending Manny (Yea, that was expensive! and I kept him at 3B) and that IFA seemed a good long-term move, despite the regression this year.

On the pitching side, I signed SP J.Happ, traded for SP Martin Perez, and brought in that outstanding IFA from Japan for about $14 million a year. I let Britton walk. An I Let Jones and traded Trumbo, but had to retain about 50% of his salary (still helped), and I extended Scope early. Also, I have had great success in turning a couple mid-20's AAA/Utility great glove kind of guys into everyday players, to make up for the loss of power.

In 2020, it all fell apart. With the SPs, I sort of panicked, and signed Max Scherzer, with the Nats only picking up about $5.0 million per year of his contract. Since I’m in 2020, he upside is that I only have a year to deal with it, and he will be 36, so I think he will want to test FA and decline the qualifying offer, which should bag me another draft compensation pick.

Anyway, I’m going to try and rebuild that depth going into 2021.

04-25-2018, 11:18 AM	#1
GmOfTheYear Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 402	Too many starting pitchers drafted early? I am wondering if anyone has an issue with so many starting pitchers and even closers going early in the draft. I've seen something crazy like 11 SP and 2 RP in the top 13 picks. Either there aren't enough good hitters or the game is overdoing it on the sp's. What do you guys think? Or is this an issue they are working on right now?

04-26-2018, 09:21 PM	#6
Qeltar Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 382	I haven't gotten to posted pitchers yet, but I've seen a number of guys on other teams who came from that route, so I am hoping for the best. Good SPs are scarcer than hen's teeth, and all the victims falling into the waiting rooms of Frank Jobe proteges is not helping. During my amateur draft I actively hunted for hitters with potential as pitchers. I have a couple of RPs I want to try to convert to SPs but it always goes bad even when it shouldn't. (Chad Green used to be a starter, and has four solid pitches, but he just doesn't do well in the rotation for me for whatever reason. Maybe that's why the Yankees don't use him that way either even though they too need starters far more than relievers.) Last edited by Qeltar; 04-26-2018 at 09:23 PM.

04-26-2018, 10:49 PM	#8
Qeltar Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 382	I was surprised checking just now to find that my starters' ERA is 5th in the NL. But some are outperforming their ratings, and this is also due to some very heavy micromanagement on my part. I've assembled a very good bullpen (7th in the NL but that's inflated by a few guys I have left in to soak innings during blowouts) and I have a very quick hook. Even so, this staff is not exactly amazing on paper. All the guys are 1.5 to 2.5 stars currently, and at least one is a converted RP. It was assembled from spit and bailing wire. When I started, I had a 1 star guy who never belonged higher than AAA in the rotation, for example. As the thread says, the few good SPs were gone before I even got my first draft pick (Miami had the worst of both worlds: won enough games last year to get only 13th overall, then gutted their team). The IFA pool had no SPs worth spending money on. I've done a bunch of trading and tinkering but most of my decent SP prospects are a ways out. I did just pick up Carson Fulmer, which the ChiSox for some reason decided they were done with. He needs a year and then maybe will be pretty good. Trying to get a true "ace" SP is nearly impossible. There aren't even any slated to come up as free agents for next year in my game -- the only decent one is Keuchel and he's not exactly an ace. So we muddle through. I'm swimming in good RPs and the AI seems to undervalue them so I may just go with "try to survive five or six" and then use lots of bullpen arms. But the long stretches without days off, and the weakness of the game when it comes to swing men, makes this a challenge. The walks with these inferior pitchers are infuriating. I hate walks. Finding anyone with good stuff who can also throw strikes is so hard, SP or RP. It doesn't help that my offense sucks. And the last few games we've been slumping, even when they hit the ball hard, it's all "at-ems". ETA: And there goes my latest idiot starter, 1 1/3 in and already 3 hits, a home run and a walk. Meanwhile my guys are doing nothing against their SP, who has an ERA twice as high. No wonder managers have gray hair.. if they have any left at all. And another game lost to fail pitching and no offense. I think I got spoiled when we had a win streak in early July. I should have known this team simply isn't good enough to stay more than within 1 or 2 games of .500.. or worse. Grr. Last edited by Qeltar; 04-26-2018 at 11:07 PM.

04-26-2018, 11:21 PM	#9
Qeltar Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 382	Aaaand the one starter I had on contract for a few years (with the team I traded for him picking up much of the salary) just got some BS injury and is out not just for the rest of this year but into next year as well. Right after I spent a fortune on the best trainer available... Why am I doing this again. (I think I got too wrapped up in this season and forgot my original long-term goals...) Last edited by Qeltar; 04-26-2018 at 11:37 PM.

04-25-2018, 11:27 AM	#2
Qeltar Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 382	I think SPs going early is pretty realistic. I'm new to the game but I've noticed that good SPs are very hard to come by, while RPs are plentiful and sometimes even good ones are undervalued by the AI. Again, this makes sense to me. Good, consistent SPs are hard to find. And prospects tend to be very risky. I'm trying to improve my rotation in my first year and it's an upward battle. Many times teams with 1 star current and 3 star potential SPs won't trade them for anyone I have 1-on-1. Really good SPs seem to be impossible to get without giving away the farm. Last edited by Qeltar; 04-25-2018 at 11:29 AM.

04-25-2018, 11:59 AM	#3
NoOne Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,228	gm sliders that probably heavily prefer pitching on those teams.. if it doesn't work they'll lose their jobs shortly and likely will unless they joined a team with heaving offense and for acouple years it might mesh well... it's all very similar to RL.. ~40rounds and if you get 1-2-3 serviceable guys per year from the draft, you are doing really well. (excluding bench players and depth--serviceable in this context means willing to use them often in games or able to trade etc) the draft is a lesson in futility, lol... like cold-calling... 99 no's and a yes. the only time you should feel ~50% confident about a pick is the first 10-20 picks of any draft depending on the depth that particular year.

04-26-2018, 03:48 PM	#4
Reed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,339	Are you playing historical or fictional? If historical, there has been discussion of it in the historical section of the forum and in the data base issues section of the tech support. If historical, is pre defined draft values selected or is this for the inaugural draft? There is suppose to be some tweaks for this if playing historical in an upcoming patch.

04-28-2018, 07:20 AM	#10
Calvert98 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 579	Long-term goals do start to get lost in bad situations. My Orioles won the division in 2019, but last year (2018), was a 100 loss season (and that was in OOTP 18); Some things I did last year going into 2019 in retrospect were short-term, aside from extending Manny (Yea, that was expensive! and I kept him at 3B) and that IFA seemed a good long-term move, despite the regression this year. On the pitching side, I signed SP J.Happ, traded for SP Martin Perez, and brought in that outstanding IFA from Japan for about $14 million a year. I let Britton walk. An I Let Jones and traded Trumbo, but had to retain about 50% of his salary (still helped), and I extended Scope early. Also, I have had great success in turning a couple mid-20's AAA/Utility great glove kind of guys into everyday players, to make up for the loss of power. In 2020, it all fell apart. With the SPs, I sort of panicked, and signed Max Scherzer, with the Nats only picking up about $5.0 million per year of his contract. Since I’m in 2020, he upside is that I only have a year to deal with it, and he will be 36, so I think he will want to test FA and decline the qualifying offer, which should bag me another draft compensation pick. Anyway, I’m going to try and rebuild that depth going into 2021.