Why do my guys always seem to get thrown out trying to steal?

[Qeltar]

I don't do it very often, but even guys with 70 speed and 65 stealing (for example) are constantly caught by guys who make perfect throws where afterwards it says "has now cut down 12 of 48 runners" or similar. So it's not like I'm running against guys with amazing records against SB attempts. I must be doing something wrong...

Thanks.

PS Meanwhile the AI steals on me with very high success despite a very good defensive catcher...

[D-BacksJosh]

I might be crazy, but I have had better results from players with less speed then stealing ability. Seems if there is more speed then stealing ability they get gunned down more often.

[timmermac]

How are you stealing? I've had similar problems using Force Send. Run and Hit seems to be working reasonably well for me.

[IanIachimoe]

are you "force" sending? I never use that & have had a lot of success with the SB (broke Henderson's record twice). I've also found that if they don't go on the first or second jump, they most likely will be caught.

[Qeltar]

I've never once used Force Send.

After a few "magical AI mind-reading" pitchouts I started sometimes taking the first pitch but it's actually made things worse.

Quite frustrating.

I sometimes hit and run but too often that also turns into an easy CS by a catcher who apparently can only throw out my runners.

[Noone_Uknow]

I've found that it seems like I have more guys thrown out when I send forced or use the run-and-hit; especially if playing one pitch/ab.

I've recently started doing pitch-by-pitch when I have a guy that can steal on base, and have him steal the base (#4) rather than run-and-hit or sending forced. It seems like about half the time, the runner doesn't go because they didn't get a good enough jump. Of the times they do go, the only time I seem to be thrown out is when a pitch out was called.

The only time I use the run and hit now is when the count is full and I have a guy that's not likely to strike out at the plate.

Since I've adjusted how I send the runners, my success rate has improved as well...

[Craig Scarborough]

Originally Posted by Qeltar

I don't do it very often, but even guys with 70 speed and 65 stealing (for example) are constantly caught by guys who make perfect throws where afterwards it says "has now cut down 12 of 48 runners" or similar. So it's not like I'm running against guys with amazing records against SB attempts. I must be doing something wrong...

Thanks.

PS Meanwhile the AI steals on me with very high success despite a very good defensive catcher...

So - can we have some data? Some examples of percentages?

[Qeltar]

I don't have any hard data. I just notice these numbers.. it seems the AI's catchers are much worse at throwing out the AI's runners than mine.

I'll experiment more with guys who have better stealing numbers, though 70/65 is already pretty good.

[chriskelly]

The pitcher hold ratings might have more to do w/ it than the catchers arm. Also......what era are you playing? If you are playing current day, remember steals are down in recent years, and success rates are around 70%. I bet that's why if you use the normal "steal" option you get "can't get a good lead" a lot....to keep attempts at historical levels. If you are using run and hit or force steal, you are kinda working around that......like you are forcing your guys to run more than what is normal these days. I wonder if that's part of it.

I notice if I try to focus on steals, I end up getting caught a lot no matter who it is.

[Qeltar]

Well that's just it. If success rates are around 70% why does every catcher have a throw-out rate well below 50%?

I think this may be partly an issue with stealing happening too much in AI vs. AI games.

[Qeltar]

Just happened again, straight steal with a guy who had 60 speed and 70 stealing.

He was out, it didn't look close, and the game said the catcher has now thrown out 8 of 32 runners. That seems wrong.

[Timofmars]

As I understand it, speed doesn't increase your stealing chance. It only makes you more likely to be able to get an attempted steal to actually go (get a good jump). That is also affected by the pitcher's hold rating.

The chance of stealing success is based on the steal rating alone, plus of course the defense, which includes the pitch thrown (pitch out obviously, but maybe also speed of a pitch) catcher's arm, and the pitcher's hold rating.

I don't really like guys below 80 stealing rating to attempt steals unless maybe they are really poor in speed but still at least 70 in stealing. The idea here is that a fast guy will be able to run the bases well and get to 3rd on lots of singles anyway, so don't risk it, but the slow guy is a DP risk and takes a lot of hitting effort to move him around the bases to score, so a successful steal is worth a lot more for the slow guy.

Though if you play the game out, you can look at the catcher and pitcher to check for poor ratings and maybe steal more often than you normally would. Or if your team is a bit weak in hitting, it might be worth stealing a bit more since you can't depend as much on hitting. But my teams are heavily offensive, even if it costs defense and speed, so I really have a high bar for % stealing success to be worth it.

[Orcin]

I have found the most significant success factors to be a poor pitcher’s hold rating and some element of surprise. By the latter, I mean going on a strange count in pitch by pitch mode or at least not running on the first pitch/batter after an obvious base stealer reaches base.

[Qeltar]

And again... I get thrown out after taking a couple of pitches and letting the runner choose his time.

The catcher's arm rating is 45. That's below average. And he too has nailed under 1/3 of runners this year. But had no problem with mine, of course. Like every other catcher.

Sorry but none of this makes a lick of sense to me.

[Orcin]

Just a question... how many attempts per game do you average? The MLB average last season was somewhere around 0.75 per game.

[Qeltar]

That's probably what I average now, or even less, since I am tired of giving outs away.

[IanIachimoe]

Originally Posted by Orcin

I have found the most significant success factors to be a poor pitcher’s hold rating and some element of surprise. By the latter, I mean going on a strange count in pitch by pitch mode or at least not running on the first pitch/batter after an obvious base stealer reaches base.

I'll go on the first pitch with someone like Matteo (80/80) & every pitch after until he stops short a few times. almost never caught stealing, only aborted attempts.

after 3-4 tries, I've found it's 50/50.

[timmermac]

I run early and I run often, especially with guys like Rogers and Mays. Rogers is 9/15 and Mays is 11/13 since the Braves traded for him.

[NoOne]

unless it's a max / max+ speed and stealing ability, it will mostly depend on context. those guys can maintain a higher % even if you do the things i speak about below.

things that reduce %:

if you try to steal every single time your 'fast' player is on base, by the 2nd/3rd single the ai will 'hold runner' way more often... stealing a 2nd+ time reduces %'s.

if you try to steal and he either doesn't go or whatever... then continue to mash on 'steal 2nd' that will also be a reduced chance. they are definitely 'holding runner' every pitch after that.

the ai will even start using pitchouts and such if you always mash steal with 1 player.

a 60-80speed (out of 100) with 60-80 stealing isn't going to do more than 20-40sb a year.. so if you try an attempt, don't keep clicking with those types if it doesn't work out the first time. wait for the next time they get a single/double. not all 80spd/80 stealing players will do ~50sb a year.

steal when it's less expected -- not on 0-0 but 0-1 or 1-1- etc.. mix it up a bit. obviously, i don't recommend stealing with 2 strikes.

i notice a ramp up for many of the speedy guys. they seem to get better at it with a little bit of experience... a year or 2 from what i observe with a naked eye (ie total guess, lol, take with a grain of salt). i don't play games out but i adjust the individual game strategies for stealing per player.. if a rookie and max steal/speed rating i will not use as high of a slider for stealing.. maybe middle or 1-2 ticks up... once they show they can steal ~80%, or thereabouts, i bump it up to the dark blue area over time... if they maintain a high percentage i keep bumping it up. (my coach is a middle slider for stealing frequency, it is relative to that -- if i have a high frequency stelaing coach, i won't start at the "middle" for individual sliders -- all relative to overall strategies for team as outlined by coach.)

the numbers i used are based somewhere near default settings for SB/sb%. if you elevate or reduce these modifiers after auto-calculating them, you can increase expectations. ootp18 i had it for ~4500steals a year with a ~71-72% league average. that's probably a bit elevated compared to default. ... but it allows teh max+ guys to break 100SB a year, which is how i make that decisions about the SB/SB% modifiers.

[Qeltar]

Okay but I am still confused about why every AI catcher I have encountered has a way-way-below-.500 CS rate.