"The System" (Part II): The Pitching Revolution

[Prodigal Son]

Part one of this series, from 2012, was entitled: "The System" (or How Leverage Killed Conventional Pitching Wisdom)

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=219702)

I would like to think that The Foreword below provides useful context and history for the vast majority of readers, but there are those in our community who are already very familiar with The System, and they may decide to proceed past The Foreword to Post #2, which is entirely devoid of context and theoretical underpinnings.

---

INTRODUCTION

It has been over six years since I introduced The System. What is this machination?

It's the future of pitching strategy.

It's a comprehensive system that encompasses everything from the small to the big. From the minutiae of determining which pitcher should enter the game to face the bottom of the lineup in the eighth inning of a game with a four-run lead to the question of whether to sign a star starting pitcher or star outfielder in free agency, The System provides solutions. This is an approach that allows a front office to slash at least 30% of its pitching rotation salary to allocate instead to position players, amateur signings, scouting, and other organizational needs. It can also trade at least 20% of its existing pitching prospect talent to acquire talent in other areas. By trading the hottest commodity in baseball -- above-average pitching prospects -- a team can stack its lineup. All of this can happen while actually increasing the effectiveness of the team's pitching staff.

"If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is," according to the old saying. But what if I told you that anything that sounds too basic to be true is probably terribly inefficient? What if I told you that the best pitchers in baseball spend dozens of innings per year -- millions of dollars worth of work -- throwing pitches in innings that are exceedingly unlikely to affect the outcomes of games? What if I told you that every time a closer comes in with a 2-3 run lead with the bases empty, most often avoiding the most dangerous one-third of the opposing team's lineup, to record an arbitrary "save" statistic, he wastes valuable stamina to do a job that a lesser reliever could do with minimal risk of failure?

What if it might be worth it to reallocate your #2 and/or #3 starting pitcher salaries to downgrade to a certain type of inexpensive starting pitcher, then spend the rest on relief pitcher or position player acquisitions, and in doing so head into every game with the confidence that your team has multiple elite pitchers to take the mound if the game remains close and the offense produces? What if you could jettison your #4 and #5 starting pitcher salaries, and instead acquire one or two good bullpen arms to shut down opposing batters when it matters the most, all while saving money to spend on position player upgrades?

What if I asked: If the first baseball game ever played took place tomorrow, and we eliminated all categories, constraints, and traditions of pitching, how would you manage your favorite team's pitching staff? That's the new world of baseball. Or the old world of System baseball.

In the real world, Sergio Romo recently made news as a reliever who started consecutive games for the Tampa Bay Rays. What if I told you that The System, during a one-season dynasty league run six years ago, started an average to above-average reliever to face the top of a deadly Yankees lineup in a playoff game in 2012, for all of the same reasons? http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...9&postcount=48

Who knows about The System? Who is reading? With the popularity of OOTP, nobody knows for sure, but baseball in 2018 is charging with a full head of steam toward the tenants of The System that were outlined back in 2012. Aside from the obvious nod of sending out relief pitchers to start a game, there are other indicators: Teams using minor league options and the modern 10-day disabled list to rotate slightly above-replacement value players in a 12 - 14 man pitching staff. Pulling starters in the fifth inning or prior with regularity. Pitching "bullpen games" to give the top three members of the starting staff rest and to play matchups.

There are imitators in the fantasy world and the real world, but there is only one System. We will now put it to the test, together, in a way that it has never been tested before. We will set it up to fail, remove any structural advantages, and see what happens. In doing so, we will not focus on whether or not it is dominant, but on whether or not it works. At this level of professional sports, with the world's top talent on the field and in the front office, success is defined on the margins. Will The System hold up? Will it return value?

While I am confident that this approach is revolutionary, this dynasty thread will not be an exercise in ego-stroking. This will be a test run. If the last thread was Alpha testing, and the OOTP Mariners team in it made the playoffs, then testing fundamentally shifted to external / Beta testing, especially when a real MLB team started a reliever and provided reasons in press releases that mirrored The System's tenets.

We have an idea that The System can work, and that the highest levels of baseball are coming around. This thread continues this Beta testing. We will work through this together. A human with a software program can always find a way to "win," but that is not what is going to happen here. We will handicap the human-controlled team to isolate the effects of The System. The goals of this dynasty are as follows:

- To minimize the need for trades (which invite exploitation), it should start with an inaugural draft.

- To start on a below-level playing field. Given the advantage of being a human in an AI-controlled world, we need to pick a below-average payroll team. I've been a Braves fan for years, and OOTP tells me they have the sixth-lowest payroll. Perfect.

- To prove the merits of the system, the team should be immediately competitive. No drafting of prospects, building up the system, and simming years before we go "live." We're taking control of a team out of the gates and trying to win.

- Complete transparency: Facts. Like any dynasty thread, every at-bat won't be mentioned. Yet I will save every game log and box score. If anyone has a question about a game / time period / outcome, just mention it and it will be answered.

- Complete transparency pt. 2: Strategy. I will personally respond to any questions about my decision-making process.

[Prodigal Son]

Post 2: reserved for structural outline.

[Prodigal Son]

Inaugural Draft Results

Round 1, Pick #23 - RF Aaron Judge

With all the elite young SP's off the board, it hardly seemed worth it to use a first round pick on an arm from the next tier down of pitchers. Instead, the Braves grabbed a big-time power hitter who is only a little over a year into his MLB service time. He plays a respectable RF. The downside is that he struck out over 208 times last season, and it's hard to believe that he'd repeat his .284 batting average if he does that again. So he's no Mike Trout, but I'm happy with the pick.

Round 2 - 1B Cody Belinger

Again, with SP's going fast, this seemed like a perfect opportunity to pick up a very good all-around player. While I would have preferred to scoop up someone higher on the defensive spectrum than 1B, Bellinger was simply too good with the bat to pass up. With RHB Judge already drafted, Bellinger's lefty bat was perfect. He even handles LHP well, posting over a .900 OPS against them in 2017.

Round 3 - ML / SP Shohei Ohtani (RHP)

With star hitters gone and with the established SP's remaining looking like a mix of expensive veteran #2 / #3 types, the Braves decided they couldn't pass up the opportunity to draft two-way player Ohtani, who will be classified as a ML or SP. He will get regular work on the mound, in right field, and also pinch hitting. While I would have preferred to land a better long arm (traditional SP) in this spot, the talent simply wasn't available. This pick had its advantages. Ohtani's versatility should work great in The System, and that should help make up for the "reach" for him in terms of pure talent (there were much better hitters and pitchers available than Ohtani's ability at either).

Over the next rounds, most teams continued to make runs at the above-average and average starting pitchers, giving Atlanta the chance to load up on position players (from good to serviceable) and quality relievers. The team did pick up its second traditional SP, but it was able to hold off until Round 10 and still get a decent arm in Brandon McCarthy. With many teams drafting top prospects, I missed out on all of the blue chippers (4.5+ star SP's or position players), but I managed to nab four-star OF prospect Juan Soto, who is getting close to being ready for the show.

LF Kris Davis
CF Ender Inciarte
HL Ken Giles RHP
3B Ian Happ
HL Sean Doolittle LHP
ML Alex Claudio LHP, double play specialist
SP Brandon McCarthy RHP
2B Jed Lowrie
SP Pat Neshek
C Evan Gattis
ML/HL Michael Feliz
RF Juan Soto (prospect)
SS Starlin Castro
ML Darren O'Day RHP
3B Maikel Franco
ML Brad Ziegler RHP, double play specialist
ML Dan Otero RHP, double play specialist
ML/SP Juan Nicasio RHP
ML Jerry Blevins LHP
3B Jonathan India (prospect)
SP David Peterson (prospect)
(then autodraft)

The team didn't nab any five-star prospects, but it did fill out the minors nicely with solid prospects. The lineup is well-balanced, although the catcher spot looks to be a bit of a problem. Most importantly, here are The System assignments for the pitchers who project to see regular MLB time:

HL
Giles
Doolittle
Feliz
O'Day (ML/HL)

ML / Specialists
Blevins
Claudio
Ohtani
Ziegler (ML/LL)

LL
Bleier
Fiers

SP
McCarthy
Otero
Ziegler / Neshek (injured for 3-4 weeks)

And the lineups:

vs RHP

1. Inciarte CF
2. Bellinger 1B
3. Judge RF
4. K. Davis LF
5. Castro SS
6. Happ 2B
7. Gattis C
8. Lowrie SS

vs LHP

1. Inciarte CF
2. Judge RF
3. K. Davis LF
4. Bellinger RF
5. Franco 3B
6. Happ 2B
7. Gattis C
8. Marrero SS

Top bench players:
Ohtani RF
Andujar 3B
Swihart C

[Prodigal Son]

The usual rhythm of a System game goes something like:

The SP begins and works until he gets in trouble, which could be in the first inning or could be in the 5th+ inning (although that hasn't happened through the first month of the season). The SP or the 2nd pitcher of the game (or sometimes the third) is on the mound by the time the pitcher spot comes up in the lineup. A pinch hitter enters, which a decent amount of the time (depending on leverage and his rest level) is Ohtani, as he can then stay on to pitch. I had been hoping to land Mike Leake or another good-hitting SP or two in the draft for the same reason, but it was not to be. Ohtani is hitting poorly (OPS below .600), so that's not helping anything.

Of course, the games play out in an almost infinite number of ways from there. If we have a lot of rested arms, we can play matchups against the other team's lineup in high-leverage situations, regardless of inning. The team doesn't have all the quality arms it needs to regularly do that, however, so a lot of times guys are tasked to pitch in what I'd call a "leverage up" situation: a time when I'd prefer to have a different pitcher on the mound, but it's not viable due to rest reasons.

A big issue is that the masterminds behind MLB scheduling had us playing on 17 straight days. With our other Brandon McCarthy-type SP role-filler, Neshek, out with injury, this was brutal. Some AAAA-quality arms had to be sent down and recalled / rotated, and a lot of replacement-level pitchers were entering the game in medium-leverage situations. Clearly not ideal. The team managed remarkably to win 10 of the first 11 games of this stretch (including a double header one day), then the wheels came off a bit as we struggled to get rested arms. The Braves dropped four straight before getting back in the saddle.

This is an issue with The System. Attrition can take its toll when rest days are not forthcoming. In hindsight, I should have bit the bullet for a game or two and pitched a standard game with a AAA starter to get the staff some rest. It's so difficult to and runs counter to The System's goals to do so, but discretion would have been the better part of valor. The System requires an investment in rest every now and then, even if it's just 2-3 times per season, unless you can have a few decent #4 quality SP's just lying around (young guys on minimum contracts with option years would be perfect). The advantage of The System is to go into every game with big guns available; the last thing I want to do is head into a game handicapped by a below-average starter pitching a traditionally-managed game. But that may have been smart.

I've managed to work out a lot of kinks in strategy. I made a lot of managerial errors in the first month. Chiefly, I under-used some top arms in medium-leverage situations. Especially in the 6th inning and before, a lead or a deficit of three runs is far from dispositive of a baseball game's outcome. I lost some games I could have won when our offense exploded after I allowed a replacement-level pitcher to give up more runs after coming in to a +/- 3 runs situation, or, conversely, when I allowed subpar pitchers to work into jams and expected perfection from elite arms to work out of them.

I've been using the in-game WPA graphs along with experience to flesh this out. Clearly, I could do some more advanced statistical analysis to work out more specific guidance for how to manage in these situations. I had to remember that, originally, The System generally considered a +/- 3 run situation (with common sense exceptions) to be a medium-leverage situation. The lack of a lefty long-arm to come in and work the middle of the order in these situations is hurting us right now. McCarthy, Ohtani, and Neshek are all righties. A bit of a draft error. Claudio is pretty efficient with his pitch counts due to a low BB/9 rate, but he doesn't have SP-level stamina. He's also better used in medium-leverage situations, and I'd hate to waste his arm in low-leverage situations only to need him in a higher-leverage situation the next day. Oh well.

I haven't traded anyone yet. I did place 3-star SP prospect David Peterson on the trading block. We don't need no stinkin' starting pitchers!

[ayaghmour2]

I'm really looking forward to reading this! I read the first part a little while back when you commented on it, and it'll be really cool to see the results of this with a fantasy draft. Good luck!

[Prodigal Son]

Posts above have been updated after fixing the fallout of the game crash I suffered...

[Prodigal Son]

Originally Posted by ayaghmour2

I'm really looking forward to reading this! I read the first part a little while back when you commented on it, and it'll be really cool to see the results of this with a fantasy draft. Good luck!

Thanks for following along. I also think the fantasy draft adds a layer of honesty, as it forces me to start with an even playing field of talent.

I'm interested in finding the truth of this thing and documenting the conversation. Does it work? Why? Does it not work? Why? I'm along for the ride at this point.

[Prodigal Son]

nm

[Prodigal Son]

nm - game crash issue deleted to avoid confusion

[Prodigal Son]

nm - game crash issue deleted to avoid confusion

[Prodigal Son]

The team ranks 30th in SP talent a few weeks into the season, and Brandon McCarthy was a totally wasted pick in the 10th round, when a lot of good position players were available. I'm starting to think that it's not at all worth it to spend any resources on SP's other than draft picks / free agency deals. He's just not a game-changer, and the whole idea of The System is to keep guys like him from pitching important innings. I should have drafted a good position player or reliever with the plan to rotate replacement-level arms to cover McCarthy's innings.

I've actually placed him on waivers. He is unlikely to be claimed, so I'll probably keep trotting him out there. Oh well, lessen learned.

[Prodigal Son]

I'll get some stat screenshots up to give some context, but in the meantime, here are some early observations and musings about running The System:

1. While eschewing SP salary is a great feature of The System, using replacement level pitchers in low-leverage situations presents its own set of problems. Right now, due to team composition, I am forced to use them in any situation where I can think, hope, or pray to get a few outs and save the better pitchers. Here's the issue: Normally, with a "traditional" 5-man rotation, you can expect an average of 5+ innings pitched from a pitcher who is likely above-replacement level. In The System, you might bring in a replacement-level pitcher to, let's say, work the bottom of the 3rd or 4th inning against the bottom of the other team's order in a game where you are winning by 3-4+ runs. (The System calls these pitchers NL's - No Leverage pitchers.)

And yes, more often than not, you will keep the lead. But imagine that you were trying to have NL's pitch the rest of the game: 6 or 7 innings. What's replacement level? Based upon my experience in this dynasty so far, in my league it seems to be ERA (or FIP, for that matter) around 5.00. So over the course of 6-7 innings, assuming even distribution of runs across appearances (more on that later), NL's are going to give up that four run lead basically half of the time (especially accounting for an occasional extra innings game). Now of course your offense is going to score more most of the time, so the actual percentage may be more like 20 - 30% of times when you would lose by allowing an NL to ride out the 3-4 run lead. That's way too high.

Clearly this means you are likely to need to use some good arms, even with an early 3-4 run lead. You can't sit back and wait until the tying run comes to the plate to bring in a higher-leverage pitcher. You have to pull the replacement guys early in the situation, perhaps even if one guy is on base with a 3-run lead, especially if the hitter has power and there are fewer than two outs in the inning. I've been burned on this a few times. What would be really helpful would be obtain several pieces of data:

a. What's the league-wide distribution of runs surrendered in an inning? In other words, I would doubt that pitchers surrender runs linearly according to their ERA. I don't know how best to explain this without consulting my old college stats textbooks, but I would guess that the following would not be a true statement: Pitchers surrender two runs in an inning exactly half of the time that they surrender one run in an inning.

b. Does this distribution vary by pitcher? I would wager it does.

c. How does it vary by pitcher -- randomly, or based upon the pitcher's performance. I would posit the latter. It would seem to me that pitchers with high control would have the lowest variance, and pitchers who have low control would have the highest variance. This would be due to the ubiquitous nature of the home run. I would expect a pitcher's HR/9 rate to be the second largest factor. I wonder if anyone has statistics on this? Seems like something tangotiger might do.

Based on the above, my theory is that the best NL's for The System to use would be high control pitchers, preferably with decent HR/9 rates. Clearly you're not gong to get a guy with average k rates and average HR rates to go with above-average control, because then he wouldn't be replacement-level. But a low k rate and below-average to average HR rates are fine if the walk rate is where it needs to be.

This makes the opposing team's BABIP the primary factor in determining the number of runs given up. I'll take the probability behind BABIP (roughly .285 or whatever x .285 minimum to surrender one run in an inning) as the factor any time, for multiple reasons. The main ones being that it's the most predictable / lowest variance data point and the other being that opposing hitters' BABIPs are known commodities, more or less. This allows the manager to adjust to increasing leverage situations. The one thing that cannot easily be adjusted from is a multi-run home run.

Having NL's force below-average BABIP hitters with below-average power to rack up multiple runs without walking them is the ideal NL pitching situation.

[Prodigal Son]

At 31 games in (just shy of 1/5th of the season), we are playing good baseball at 18-13. Of course, Cody Bellinger is on pace to hit 90 HR's, and Ohtani is pitching out of his mind. They'll come back to earth, so hopefully some of the scuffling relievers, Ender Inciarte, and Aaron Judge will pick up their lackluster production to make up for that.

Here are some pitching and hitting stats. Jed Lowrie has missed some time due to injury, as has Neshek. Other than that, most guys have stayed fairly healthy. I've sat a few guys with minor injuries that risk being aggravated (sore backs, etc.) but overall I can't complain about health too much. Nobody has sustained a month+ injury yet.

Edit: McCarthy wasn't on there because he was sitting on waivers/DFA. It kills me to pay a guy with his talent level (granted, he took a talent hit right after I started the franchise) a salary of $9 million per season. Anyway, nobody is biting on waivers, as expected. He's pitching fine, I guess. I sent Flande down and recalled him to the bigs. Here are his stats:

[Prodigal Son]

Because of the 5 minimum IP required to get a win, those who start games in The System do not get wins. Three pitchers have started 5+ games: Neshek, Otero, and McCarthy. Their combined record in 19 starts is 0-2. Clearly, they are being pulled from games prior to entering situations that are likely to affect the game either way, as they don't have many losses either.

Neshek has the most starts on the team (8). I've attached his game log. He has never thrown more than 50 pitches in a start. He did almost reach five innings in his last start! Otero and McCarthy also each have one game where they reached 4.2 IP. So close. I have nothing against leaving SP's in to hit that 5 IP mark, but it just hasn't been in the cards.

The shortest outing for a pitcher who started a game was Evan Mitchell. He went 0.0 IP and surrendered two hits on two total pitches!

How is that realistic? Would you have a pitcher warmed up? The answer is yes. The opposing team had an injury and had been starting a subpar leadoff hitter, and the thought was to allow Mitchell to attempt to get him out. Failure. After surrendering a single, the thought was to allow Mitchell to try to get a DP, as he's an extreme GB pitcher. I also figured it'd let the pitcher hypothetically warming up get in a few extra tosses. Failure. But here's the point: we knew going in there was a good chance that Mitchell wouldn't make it out of the first inning, and we knew the batters slotted to bat 3rd and 4th. In the real world, I'd have had his replacement (Doolittle) tossing in anticipation of coming in.

I always try to make realistic replacements to account for warmup time. That sometimes means that I leave in a pitcher for an extra batter or two, if I don't believe I would have gotten the reliever warmed up in time based upon the circumstances. For example, if a NL gives up a solo HR to cut a lead from 4 to 3, I wouldn't replace him immediately unless I had a reason to think I already had a guy warming up (such as if the pitcher on the mound had already thrown a lot of pitches). I'd give at least another batter and use a mound visit.

Anyway, I predict that MLB will change the 5 IP minimum rule for awarding wins to SP's. Probably sooner than later.

[Prodigal Son]

The Braves are rolling! The team has posted a record in May of 11-3 (.786 win pct).

This is a team that started the season 2-6. Since then, the team is 25-10 (.714 win pct) for a total record of 27-16 (.628 win pct) and a 2.5 game lead over the second-place Nationals. And, there was a unicorn sighting. Pat Neshek just started a game and posted a line of:

5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 K, 0 BB for the WIN.

The Braves have just two pitchers on pace to toss more than 110 innings: Ohtani and McCarthy. Giles and Doolittle are on pace for a shade under 80 IP each.

This is going well.

[Prodigal Son]

And of course we lost the next two after that post about how well we're playing. Am I superstitious?

[Prodigal Son]

For fun, here's a narrated game. Braves versus Marlins.

We come into this game with a well-rested pitching staff. Every HL pitcher is available. SP Brandon McCarthy gets the start, but I tell LL/ML Brad Ziegler to get warm as well. If McCarthy gives up a baserunner, we'll call in Ziegler to keep the ball in the yard and potentially coax a double play. Kris Bryant is the opposing #3 hitter.

Addison Russell smacks a one-out double, so Ziegler sits down and we decide to intentionally walk Bryant. After him is lefty Matt Olson, so do we signal McCarthy to give the ol' "unintentional intentional walk" to give us time to warm up a LHP to face Olson?

I decide that's what we'll do, as the two hitters after Olson actually hit righties better as well. We signal for ML Alex Claudio to get warm. He isn't our best lefty K artist, but he keeps the ball in the park and is an extreme GB pitcher, so we could possibly get the DP. McCarthy takes his time issuing a four-pitch walk, and then I make a mound visit to bring in Claudio. Runners on first and second, one out. This is a big situation.

Olson hits a massive fly ball to center, but he gets under it and Inciarte makes the grab. Russell tags and heads to third. Claudio loads them up with a walk, then goes to a full count on Nick Williams. Huge pitch, and ... he strikes out. Whew.

That took Claudio 16 pitches, so we're going to be going deep into that rested 'pen barring an offensive outburst.

Bellinger takes a walk and goes first-to-third on a single by Khris Davis (he was running on a 3-2 count), and Castro drives him home with a single before the innings comes to an end. 1-0 Braves.

I trot Claudio back out, but with six straight RHB's due up, I get LL/ML Ziegler warm again. With this being his second warm-up, he'll have to come in or else sit the rest of the game. Do I warm up HL Feliz too? Tough call. With a one-run lead and with being on the 6th day of a 9-day stretch with no days off, I leave Feliz sitting. If Ziegler comes on, he's going to need to face a few hitters, period.

Claudio surrenders a leadoff single, so Ziegs comes on. He gets a fly out, then he notches a putout at second base on a poor bunt by the opposing pitcher, then strikes out Anthony Alford for the third out. He is due up third in the inning, so we'll need to warm someone up if the first hitter gets out. Fortunately for us, the first two hitters get on base. Normally I'd still pull the pitcher, but Ziegler is a very good bunter. He promptly bunts into 1-6-4(3?) double play. Then this groundball specialist gives up a solo HR in the next half-inning. Baseball is awesome.

The Braves take a 2-1 lead on the baseball event with the widest disparity between label and excitement level: the wild pitch.

Ziegler does manage to stay on to pitch 3 innings before giving way to a pinch hitter, Ohtani, who crushes an RBI double. He may only be hitting .173, but at least he has 7 XBH in 75 AB's. Still better production than teams get from their pitcher spot in the order.

SP / HL Ohtani stays on to pitch to see if he can make it through the righties. ML / HL Blevins warms up to face the string of LHB, SH, LHB that are due up 4th, 5th, 6th in the inning (or to face them starting the next inning). Ohtani strikes out two and walks Bryant, but Blevins gets the final out. Braves go quietly in the bottom of the innings while Aaron Judge racks up what feels like his 900th strikeout of the year. The score is 3-1 Braves after 5.

Blevins stays on to pitch the bottom of the Marlins' order. We're hoping this is all his inning, as the bullpen sits quiet, and he responds by going 1-2-3 against Miami's worst hitters. His spot comes up in the bottom of the 6th with two outs and a runner on second, so I bring in Maikel Franco and have NL Jordan Lyles warm up. HL Ken Giles stretches and tosses, with the opposing 9-1-2 spots due up.

Lyles gets one out in the 7th before surrendering a single. Giles comes on to face Russell and Kris Bryant, clinging to a 3-1 lead. Big situation with the tying run at the plate. Alford steals second. Russell F-9. Then Bryant lines out to LF to end the inning. Whew. Would have been nice to have Lyles make it through, but them's the breaks.

Judge cranks a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 7th, so I warm up NL Bleier. With Giles having only thrown 5 pitches, I decide to leave him in to attempt to get at least the first out of the 8th. He strikes out Olson. At 10 pitches in, do I leave him in to get one more out? With a 4-run lead, I decide not to. Double switch, bringing in SS Marrero (who is slick with the glove), bumping Starlin to 2B, Lowrie to 3B, and pulling Ian Happ.

Aaron Judge racks up his 4th K. 1-5, HR, 4 k's. Sounds about right. Braves tack on another run, Bleier finishes it up without any drama (and without anyone else having to warm up in the 'pen), and we get the 6-1 win.

Analysis: A nice win. It would have been nice if McCarthy or Lyles could have given us more innings, but in a close game they were on a short leash. All of the top arms pitched like it. We used 8 pitchers who compiled 11 K / 3 BB / 1 HR.

Ziegler gets the W to move to 2-2. Holds go to Blevins (3), Lyles (1), and Giles (5). No scorer's discretion save awarded to Bleier, who came in with a four-run lead and pitched 1.2 innings.

[Prodigal Son]

We know that I bring in the best pitchers in high-leverage situations. Of course, we also know I bring them in early in games regularly, and depending on rest and number of pitches thrown, a HL will often stay on to keep pitching even after the high leverage situation is resolved.

Thus, my HL's have high, but not astronomical, average leverage (pLi) statistics. Giles is at 1.73, Doolittle 1.64, and Feliz 1.53.

Ohtani and Ziegler, our better long arms (Ziegler is a reliever but is very pitch-efficient and is on pace for over 90 innings) are tied at 1.09, which is high for pitchers used in starting pitching situations. Among 176 qualified pitchers on FanGraphs in MLB as of 6/21/2018 (this excludes most closers / relievers), a 1.09 would rank 14th. Just for context.

So I'm happy about using our good arms in the right situations. But here's the really interesting thing: let's sort the other direction.

Jordan Lyles has a pLi of .61 in 13 IP (projects to 45 IP for the season). Richard Bleier has a pLi of .65 in 16 IP (projects to 55 IP for the season). McCarthy is on pace to pitch 144 innings of pLi .81 baseball. Neshek is on pace for 93 IP at .84.

For context, the lowest pLi score in MLB among the 176 qualified pitchers is Corey Kluber's .76. All of the four pitchers just named would be in the bottom five in pLi in MLB in 2018, if qualified. (Well, not if they were all in the bottom five, because then they'd be bumping each other out, but I digress...)

How does this translate to traditional counting stats? Well, Ohtani is 8-3 with 1 save and 3 holds in 49.1 IP. Doolittle is 6-2 with 1 save and 4 holds in, get this, 23.2 IP. Feliz is 0-3 with 1 save and 3 holds in 18.2 IP. So Ohtani is on pace for stats along the lines of 28 wins, 11 losses, 4 saves and 10 holds in 165 IP. Doolittle is on pace for 80 IP, 21-7 record, 3 saves, and 14 holds!

This is really the bread-and-butter of The System. Every time a replacement-level or well below-average pitcher throws a low leverage inning, an angel gets its wings.

ETA: Man, these guys look exhausted! Oh wait, I need to advance the day. Had me worried for a minute...

[Prodigal Son]

I advanced the day, which made me think I should mention this: So how many arms are available on any given day? Obviously, it varies significantly. We are sitting pretty good right now, especially considering that this is day 7 in a row without a rest day. I would say the attached image is somewhat typical, maybe a little better than normal, in terms of rest status of the staff.

[Sowega]

Wow, this without a doubt one of the best threads I’ve read here.

Are you seeing large discrepancies in Era V FIP for your staff? Wondering if the unique usage affects the differential more or less than normal life. May be too early to tell early in season but as season goes on would be interested to follow.


What are your current offense and pitching league ranks? And do you emphasize good defense infield with the pitching emphasis on ground ball specialists?


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