How much do you value potential and do you factor in age?

[brian_msbc]

So when trying to compare prospect value to veteran value, do you only look at potential? My first instinct was to assume not all players reach their potential so a 65 potential prospect may only reach 55. Is there a rule of thumb, and do you consider age in that rule of thumb? (If a guy is 22 or 23 and still a 20 overall with a 65 potential, do you diminish his potential more than if he’s 18) How much do you care about work ethic and intelligence?

[jimmysthebestcop]

Don't go only off of stars and ratings that is what your scouts opinion is. You must go for what the players stat lines are. And for young guys you need at least 3 years worth of stats. So for a batter like 300+ at bats each year. Or a good 900-1000 total at bats so you can evaluate him.

No prospect will reach their potential in the minors. They must play in the MLB. That is the only way to see if they really develop fully.

[brian_msbc]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

Don't go only off of stars and ratings that is what your scouts opinion is. You must go for what the players stat lines are. And for young guys you need at least 3 years worth of stats. So for a batter like 300+ at bats each year. Or a good 900-1000 total at bats so you can evaluate him.

No prospect will reach their potential in the minors. They must play in the MLB. That is the only way to see if they really develop fully.

In that case... I have a 21 year old 3B in AAA that has hit .300+ and 4+ WAR at every level of the minors, and is currently hitting .300+ and 1.5 WAR in 50 AAA games. He’s overall 40 potential 50. Based on his stats should I consider giving him a shot at the majors? Or give him x amount of at bats at AAA?

[jimmysthebestcop]

Originally Posted by brian_msbc

In that case... I have a 21 year old 3B in AAA that has hit .300+ and 4+ WAR at every level of the minors, and is currently hitting .300+ and 1.5 WAR in 50 AAA games. He’s overall 40 potential 50. Based on his stats should I consider giving him a shot at the majors? Or give him x amount of at bats at AAA?

I look at 2 primary stats and 2 secondary stats. wOBA and WRC+ are my primary indicators. And I look at BB% and SO% to see where they fall on the scale. That helps me to determine his eye and his avoid K's. I guess there is a 3rd category Bapip just to see if it isn't extreme on scale. Any extreme bapip usually indicate and eventually return to the mean.

Just to show you that ratings and stars mean nothing lets examine this following player:


I just bought him near the end of Spring Training from and Independent Team. I needed a warm body for my A affiliate. At the time of purchase my scout had him current .5 stars and potential 1.5 stars. 108 plate appearances at Single A he exploded to 3.5 star potential and all of a sudden the #8 prospect in all of the MLB. From absolutely trash bin to top 10 prospect. His power is now at "75" it was like 40 or 50 when I bought him.

Now look at his WRC+ and wOBA for Single A. WRC+ over 160 is absolutely insane. And over .400 wOBA again insane. So I moved him up after 100 plate appearances. AA time got in 185 plate appearances and again he is putting up insane numbers and now also has the Scout Ratings to go with the numbers. Boom AAA. He will be called up this season. From A to MLB. He didn't even have spring training.

His bapip was normal in AA so that means it wasn't bad fielding or luck. And his BB% is there so his eye is developed for every level he has played in. And he is suppose to have SO% of over 20% and he does. Its not near or over 30% so that means his Avoid K's are developed too.

He can be on an MLB team by the all star break. All that just to show you how much ratings mean. Ratings/Scouts its just another piece of the puzzle. You have to put all the data together and run with it.

[jimmysthebestcop]

Yeah he got called up for half year. His next year won mvp 72+ homeruns. I'll update with a pic.

Meanwhile my 2nd Rnd pic from several years ago dropped to . 5 star and stats are awful. Also stamina plummeted think it was 60 now it's 35. And he always started.

[progen]

I'm old school, and an old guy, so I used to only look at average, strikeouts, HR's, RBI's, etc.

Now, I tend to go with wOBA and WRC for a hitter. Never really considered K% or BB%, but makes sense. I'll start looking at those.

Here's an excellent read on wOBA from FanGraphs. You can also find info on the other stats mentioned here, and what I like is, they give you the ratings on Excellent, Great, Above Average, etc.

https://library.fangraphs.com/offense/woba/

[ThePride87]

Originally Posted by jimmysthebestcop

I look at 2 primary stats and 2 secondary stats. wOBA and WRC+ are my primary indicators. And I look at BB% and SO% to see where they fall on the scale. That helps me to determine his eye and his avoid K's. I guess there is a 3rd category Bapip just to see if it isn't extreme on scale. Any extreme bapip usually indicate and eventually return to the mean.

Just to show you that ratings and stars mean nothing lets examine this following player:
Attachment 696169

I just bought him near the end of Spring Training from and Independent Team. I needed a warm body for my A affiliate. At the time of purchase my scout had him current .5 stars and potential 1.5 stars. 108 plate appearances at Single A he exploded to 3.5 star potential and all of a sudden the #8 prospect in all of the MLB. From absolutely trash bin to top 10 prospect. His power is now at "75" it was like 40 or 50 when I bought him.

Now look at his WRC+ and wOBA for Single A. WRC+ over 160 is absolutely insane. And over .400 wOBA again insane. So I moved him up after 100 plate appearances. AA time got in 185 plate appearances and again he is putting up insane numbers and now also has the Scout Ratings to go with the numbers. Boom AAA. He will be called up this season. From A to MLB. He didn't even have spring training.

His bapip was normal in AA so that means it wasn't bad fielding or luck. And his BB% is there so his eye is developed for every level he has played in. And he is suppose to have SO% of over 20% and he does. Its not near or over 30% so that means his Avoid K's are developed too.

He can be on an MLB team by the all star break. All that just to show you how much ratings mean. Ratings/Scouts its just another piece of the puzzle. You have to put all the data together and run with it.

What gets me here is the 2-star overall rating....and I know what you and many others who are experienced would say: "don't just go off of overall/potential!' I know. And I look at those hitting ratings....and I'm like, why the heck is this guy just 2 stars? Ok, he's not great defensively or on the bases, but he's not awful either. If I didn't see the overall rating and guessed what he'd be just off of his ratings to the left, I'd have guessed a 4-out-of-5 star guy. Elite power with average contact and a good eye, that's a player I want on my team.

[ThePride87]

I guess that's the biggest curse I have to shake off with this game....I try to keep things simple. I love the idea of a final number telling me yay/nay on a player. But the thing is, I'm a heavy sabermetrics guy....I know the type of players I'd prefer (OBP and power over speed/defense....."Stuff" over "pitch to contact"), but that OVR/POT you see...I don't really know what all that encompasses. If I don't value speed, then chances are that rating is not going to be what I want. I gotta get out of that habit of trying to make one number dictate my thinking and read the whole profile.

[progen]

Originally Posted by ThePride87

What gets me here is the 2-star overall rating....and I know what you and many others who are experienced would say: "don't just go off of overall/potential!' I know. And I look at those hitting ratings....and I'm like, why the heck is this guy just 2 stars? Ok, he's not great defensively or on the bases, but he's not awful either. If I didn't see the overall rating and guessed what he'd be just off of his ratings to the left, I'd have guessed a 4-out-of-5 star guy. Elite power with average contact and a good eye, that's a player I want on my team.

I never use stars. And like many other things in this game, it's a point that can be hashed over, and rehashed over a thousand times. First, they're annoying as hell to me, and secondly, they lull me into laziness. Who should I sign to play 2B for me, a three star player, or a 3.5 star player. Averages are close, HR's close, so I'll just sign the 3.5 player. For me, I find it takes away the "drilling" down of stats, like we are discussing here. Everyone has their own style to play which what makes this game great. In many of my universes I do "stats" only, but lately, I've added the Current and Potential Ratings, just to play the game another way.

I always learn something visiting these forums, which is so helpful, and enables me to get the most out of the game.

[ThePride87]

Originally Posted by progen

I never use stars. And like many other things in this game, it's a point that can be hashed over, and rehashed over a thousand times. First, they're annoying as hell to me, and secondly, they lull me into laziness. Who should I sign to play 2B for me, a three star player, or a 3.5 star player. Averages are close, HR's close, so I'll just sign the 3.5 player. For me, I find it takes away the "drilling" down of stats, like we are discussing here. Everyone has their own style to play which what makes this game great. In many of my universes I do "stats" only, but lately, I've added the Current and Potential Ratings, just to play the game another way.

I always learn something visiting these forums, which is so helpful, and enables me to get the most out of the game.

Absolutely, lot of intelligent/experienced minds here I have a lot of respect for. Sometimes I'll bitch because so many years later, we're still left to figure out how exactly things work with the game, but don't get me wrong, the effort and opinions here are appreciated, even if I come off wrong sometimes. These forums MAKE the game for me....I'd be lost without it. The manual just doesn't cut it for me.