Ratings Current v Potential explain please

[Bobfather]

When I started playing OOTP I thought that current ratings would change over time which they do. I also though potential ratings were static. That they were a player's optimum. I was incorrect since potential also changes. My question is what do potential ratings mean?

[CBeisbol]

Are you using scouting?

Would you expect your scouts to see a player at 18, make a decision about how good they could be in a decade and never alter that opinion?

[Rain King]

A few things here.

1.) It was touched on above, but if you are using scouting then the potential rating could change just based on the the scout's opinion at that time. Scouts tend to become more accurate in their ratings the more established a player becomes and/or the more they see them.

2.) Player's underneath talent's do change. There is a setting within your leagues Development settings that controls how often that occurs.

3.) Injuries can affect potential (as well as current) ratings.

4.) Once a player gets to 30 the game no longer considers them to have "potential" and so instead shows their current and potential rating as being the same. It is still possible that their ratings can develop in some ways, but mostly from that point they are going to decline.


My favorite way to play the game is with Current Ratings (2-8), but no individual Potential Ratings aside from the "Overall Potential" (20-80). This feels more realistic to me as you don't get mucked up in the specific potential ratings and look more at the overall potential of the player. If you want to know more about their potential from there you can read the scouting report.

[Rain King]

Accidental duplicate posting.

[Bobfather]

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

Are you using scouting?

Would you expect your scouts to see a player at 18, make a decision about how good they could be in a decade and never alter that opinion?

I use full scouting.

[Biggio509]

Potential is the scouts idea of the best the player will become. Not all players will meet their potential rates but most will. The overall potential rating is based on where the player is ranked for that position. So if a star switches from SS to 3B and becomes the best first 3B then it has trickle down effects since overall potential and current overall are ranked based on position. You can turn that off and have it based on all players.

So as noted overall potential rating changes due to the pool or players but the contact, stuff, etc. potential ratings are absolute I think they don't seem to change when you change positions like current and potential do. If you suddenly see potential drop when you the player's position this is why. The position you switched them to have a deeper fool of players. Corner outfield and IB have less skill so you often see good hitters who are often less athletic there. While SS, C, etc. have a real specific set of skills fewer have.

Things that change the potential ability ratings (contact, power, etc.) and overall potential.

1. Random talent change: There is a possibility a player can get better or worse than expected. It is random. This can be affected by settings.

2. Aging: As player get past around 27 the player is pretty much what he is going to be there is usually just maintaining or decline after that. You can affect how fast players age and develop in settings too. Around 27 a player is the best he is going to be usually even if potential is > greater than current. As players hit their 30's most will begin to decline. I notice fielding declining first. You do have some guys who can DH because they still have a bat but you don't want them in the field. Sometimes the drop off is almost imperceptible and sometimes it seems drastic one year to the next.

3. As noted earlier injuries. I can't really predict what an injury will do. I think from what I have seen is it doesn't affect potential as much when a player is young. I have had some prospects injured for a long period who recover and develop. Older players tend to take current and potential hits after an injury, I have even seen starters become listed as bullpen only after an injury in their 30's. Again not sure this is a hard fast rule but what I have seen. Prospects tend to bounce back, veterans usually don't. Something to think about if you want a player who is fragile or wrecked not only do you have a higher probability that he will miss time there is also a bigger probability he won't come back as good after an injury if he is older. So the 35 year old wrecked guy who still pitches well is a huge risk especially with the contract he is likely to have.

I haven't seen it lately but it was a feature of older versions that potential would drop below current to show you your scout thought the player was on the decline. Not sure if it is still like that.

Like has been stated all ratings are your scouts opinion a scout leaving and a new one coming can make a change. A scout's better knowledge of the player might change the scouting reporting so you never know did the player change or did the scout just see more and change his mind about the player. So always look at the stats too, your scouts can be right on sometimes and dead wrong others.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Bobfather

I use full scouting.

Then, yeah, scouts change their mind as they see players more, and players develop differently based on coaching and luck

[akilleusjm]

Hello, in this case, how can you know the ideal position that a player performs or that a player should perform better?

That is, are there characteristics that should be taken in particular? By position?

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by akilleusjm

Hello, in this case, how can you know the ideal position that a player performs or that a player should perform better?

That is, are there characteristics that should be taken in particular? By position?

A player with 100 for each defensive rating will be excellent at any position

There's a reason I'm saying that.

Typically, you want a player at the most difficult position they can play

Catcher: +12.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

While also considering the skills of their teammates

Certain positions emphasize different skills relative to similar positions
Outfield
Your best defensive OFer should play CF. Range is very important here.
RF emphasizes arm

Infield
Your best defensive infielder should play SS. Again range is important.
Strongest arm plays 3B
Weakest arm plays 2B
Worst infielder plays 1B

There's a link in my signature to User Studies. In that link is a link to a defense study by Argonaut that may interest you. Note: read the entire thread as some of the results are called into question

[kriscolic]

I think that people often conflate "potential" with "ceiling".

Imagine an 18-year old behemoth, Joey Longball. He's the sort who can jack 500-foot dingers in batting practice. Scouts would say that he has an 80-grade ceiling for power (20-80 scale, like real life scouts use). His potential power, though, would reflect a scout's best guess as to how much of that power would translate into home run production during that players prime. If Joey can only crush fastballs, his potential power would be somewhere below 80. If, 3 years later, a 21-year old Joey has learned to hit breaking balls his potential grade would have improved to something closer to 80.

Hope that makes sense...

[kriscolic]

Come to think of it, "Ceiling" would be a lovely feature to find in a future version of OOTP...

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Bobfather

When I started playing OOTP I thought that current ratings would change over time which they do. I also though potential ratings were static. That they were a player's optimum. I was incorrect since potential also changes. My question is what do potential ratings mean?

Potential does not get imported correctly and play no factor in player over age 30, sadly

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Biggio509

Potential is the scouts idea of the best the player will become. Not all players will meet their potential rates but most will. The overall potential rating is based on where the player is ranked for that position. So if a star switches from SS to 3B and becomes the best first 3B then it has trickle down effects since overall potential and current overall are ranked based on position. You can turn that off and have it based on all players.

So as noted overall potential rating changes due to the pool or players but the contact, stuff, etc. potential ratings are absolute I think they don't seem to change when you change positions like current and potential do. If you suddenly see potential drop when you the player's position this is why. The position you switched them to have a deeper fool of players. Corner outfield and IB have less skill so you often see good hitters who are often less athletic there. While SS, C, etc. have a real specific set of skills fewer have.

Things that change the potential ability ratings (contact, power, etc.) and overall potential.

1. Random talent change: There is a possibility a player can get better or worse than expected. It is random. This can be affected by settings.

2. Aging: As player get past around 27 the player is pretty much what he is going to be there is usually just maintaining or decline after that. You can affect how fast players age and develop in settings too. Around 27 a player is the best he is going to be usually even if potential is > greater than current. As players hit their 30's most will begin to decline. I notice fielding declining first. You do have some guys who can DH because they still have a bat but you don't want them in the field. Sometimes the drop off is almost imperceptible and sometimes it seems drastic one year to the next.

3. As noted earlier injuries. I can't really predict what an injury will do. I think from what I have seen is it doesn't affect potential as much when a player is young. I have had some prospects injured for a long period who recover and develop. Older players tend to take current and potential hits after an injury, I have even seen starters become listed as bullpen only after an injury in their 30's. Again not sure this is a hard fast rule but what I have seen. Prospects tend to bounce back, veterans usually don't. Something to think about if you want a player who is fragile or wrecked not only do you have a higher probability that he will miss time there is also a bigger probability he won't come back as good after an injury if he is older. So the 35 year old wrecked guy who still pitches well is a huge risk especially with the contract he is likely to have.

I haven't seen it lately but it was a feature of older versions that potential would drop below current to show you your scout thought the player was on the decline. Not sure if it is still like that.

Like has been stated all ratings are your scouts opinion a scout leaving and a new one coming can make a change. A scout's better knowledge of the player might change the scouting reporting so you never know did the player change or did the scout just see more and change his mind about the player. So always look at the stats too, your scouts can be right on sometimes and dead wrong others.

This is why i stopped playing.....bs that players can't have peak years over 30......it happens often.

[Dave Stieb II]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

This is why i stopped playing.....bs that players can't have peak years over 30......it happens often.

I haven't encountered this to the same frequency as you seem to indicate.
In spite of (declining?) ratings, did players not have good years regardless?
Did you try adjusting the player aging speeds?

[Biggio509]

There used to be a spreadsheet for min ratings for each position. Got a 404 when I searched for it. Essentially if ratings are too low a player won't even learn the position. Going from memory so I could be wrong.

SS has a min rating on everything dealing with IF. I know 50 in any category will get a qualification but will be below average (80 scale)

2B everything but arm has a min

3B Arm has a min

1B anyone can play but doesn't mean they will get even a decent rating if it is all 20 out of 80

RF and LF I believe have arm min could be anyone can get a rating though

CF has min ratings for range and error. I don't think it has one for arm.

Not sure how pitching fielding rating is determined IF?

There is a spectrum again from memory so I might have one or two flipped. From hardest to easiest to get a rating.

SS>2B>3B>1B
CF>LF/RF

I have noticed some players with good ratings learn positions quickly others don't. Maybe intelligence and work ethic plays a role?

[Biggio509]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

This is why i stopped playing.....bs that players can't have peak years over 30......it happens often.

Not sure that is true. It isn't the same for every player. I have had guys maintain batting and fielding after 30. A peak year then is just variation from the mean for the ratings. A set of rating doesn't give pre-determined stats. So a 31 y/o could have a peak year but it is highly unlikely his ratings got better more likely he just got lucky with the RNG.

I have had some players particularly pitchers peak after 30. I have also seen a 28 y/o develop the third pitch enough to go from bullpen/emergency starter to a starter. So it isn't hard and fast a player will stop developing at 27 or decline after 30. Players can get better after 27 but on average that is about when they stop developing.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

This is why i stopped playing.....bs that players can't have peak years over 30......it happens often.

Players CAN have peak years after 30. Don't blame the game that Bobby Thompson didn't in real life and so won't in the game.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Dave Stieb II

I haven't encountered this to the same frequency as you seem to indicate.
In spite of (declining?) ratings, did players not have good years regardless?
Did you try adjusting the player aging speeds?

He's been in multiple threads about this. This is a specific complaint posing as a general one. The problem is he wants Bobby Thompson to be a star in his 30s when he wasn't.

[Brad K]

Here you go. Here's Bill Robinson in my current game. Historically he was much better in his 30s. In my current game he came to the Pirates at age 30 so its convenient to look at his PIT records in the screen shot.

BA, OPS, and SLG for his age 30 up years are all higher than his lifetime numbers. 66% of his PAs were age 30 and up but 80% of his WAR occurred during those years.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by kriscolic

I think that people often conflate "potential" with "ceiling".

Imagine an 18-year old behemoth, Joey Longball. He's the sort who can jack 500-foot dingers in batting practice. Scouts would say that he has an 80-grade ceiling for power (20-80 scale, like real life scouts use). His potential power, though, would reflect a scout's best guess as to how much of that power would translate into home run production during that players prime. If Joey can only crush fastballs, his potential power would be somewhere below 80. If, 3 years later, a 21-year old Joey has learned to hit breaking balls his potential grade would have improved to something closer to 80.

Hope that makes sense...

Yea not a ceiling. I don't see that this has been specifically addressed but current ratings can go up and exceed previous potential rating. At least this is what happens with real players on three year recalc. I don't play fictional players so can't say what happens there.