historical start advice

[Galeg]

In the past I have only ever dabbled in historical starts, and I don't quite understand all of the settings and options. I am considering a historical start, perhaps somewhere between '08-'13, but with non-historical drafting and player progression from then on. I also am not in full understanding of the rolling 3-year/career/etc ratings for historical players and what would make for the best choice.



Any advice would be much appreciated. Thanks!

[AdequateRandomGaming]

Originally Posted by Galeg

In the past I have only ever dabbled in historical starts, and I don't quite understand all of the settings and options. I am considering a historical start, perhaps somewhere between '08-'13, but with non-historical drafting and player progression from then on. I also am not in full understanding of the rolling 3-year/career/etc ratings for historical players and what would make for the best choice.



Any advice would be much appreciated. Thanks!

Recalc is there to ensure players perform in the neighborhood of what they did during the recalc period (so if you use 3 year, the average of those 3 years will be used to determine the spectrum said player will land on). It typically (but not always) leaves very few surprises as everyone should be playing close to that average.
If you turn recalc off and use the game engine to handle player progression instead, you may end up with a few more surprises along the way compared to how they did in real life as the game engine will use potential and aging+development attributes for each player.

It's really a personal choice at that point. Any form of recalc gives you a rough estimate of how a player should play (assuming you are already familiar with the player). Game Engine also should give you a rough estimate, with a greater chance of variance.

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by AdequateRandomGaming

Recalc is there to ensure players perform in the neighborhood of what they did during the recalc period (so if you use 3 year, the average of those 3 years will be used to determine the spectrum said player will land on). It typically (but not always) leaves very few surprises as everyone should be playing close to that average.
If you turn recalc off and use the game engine to handle player progression instead, you may end up with a few more surprises along the way compared to how they did in real life as the game engine will use potential and aging+development attributes for each player.

It's really a personal choice at that point. Any form of recalc gives you a rough estimate of how a player should play (assuming you are already familiar with the player). Game Engine also should give you a rough estimate, with a greater chance of variance.

That is a pretty good explanation. Under each of those scenarios how would POTENTIAL effect the outcomes?
Say you set 200 Power potential. Its seems the recalc would ovveride it?

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

That is a pretty good explanation. Under each of those scenarios how would POTENTIAL effect the outcomes?
Say you set 200 Power potential. Its seems the recalc would ovveride it?

https://forums.ootpdevelopments.com/...=319531&page=2

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

That is a pretty good explanation. Under each of those scenarios how would POTENTIAL effect the outcomes?
Say you set 200 Power potential. Its seems the recalc would ovveride it?

Potential would have an effect on:

a. random in-season talent changes. Players over 25 usually don't get talent bumps but as long as a guy has POT > current ratings, they could. Those changes get overridden at the beginning of the next offseason by the recalc ratings but for, you know, 6 months or something your Devon White could turn into Jim Edmonds.

b. Once the game runs out of seasons to recalc from, all it uses from then on are the POTs. Obviously that means this happens if you play past 2021 but also consider a situation in which you're running the Angels in the mid-70s and choose not to retire Lyman Bostock when he was shot to death IRL. The game will happily let him play out his career as though he were a fictional player with fully fictionalized aging.

[Brad K]

Originally Posted by Galeg

In the past I have only ever dabbled in historical starts, and I don't quite understand all of the settings and options. I am considering a historical start, perhaps somewhere between '08-'13, but with non-historical drafting and player progression from then on. I also am not in full understanding of the rolling 3-year/career/etc ratings for historical players and what would make for the best choice.



Any advice would be much appreciated. Thanks!

If you're playing 2010 and have three year recalc selected the player is rated on his actual performance for 2009, 2010, and 2011. When neutralized stats are selected they're neutralized against some park factors database although I haven't been able to learn what data base.

"Real Stats", listed as a choice are not actual un neutralized stats as might be assumed from the description.. They are neutralized against OOTP's era_ballparks file (OOTP's internal park factors) with may not be the same factors used to neutralize neutralized stats. Also "Real Stats" reduce historical home run counts considered to be outliers (example_ Maris 1961) when determining the ratings.

This information probably isn't very helpful to you in making a decision however after playing a lot of historical games I've settled on neutralized stats and 3 year recalc non weighted. However players will still vary from historical performances. There is no feedback loop to keep players close to their rating. The rating goes in and what comes out has a lot of randomness.

As examples in my current game Tony Armas hit .320 with 44 home runs in 1982 and in 1983 he hit .179 with 12 home runs. Richie Hebner hit 31 home runs at age 35 when his real life best was 25 at age 25 and his real life average is 17 per 162 games.

As a human GM you know how good players were while AI GMs don't know that. However a player in OOTP even for a career can be somewhat better or somewhat worse than real life. Still, if you're drafting, you can cherry pick the draft. AI GMs will pick guys you know were duds in the first round leaving guys who started for 8 or 10 years in the second round for you to pick up. For that reason I suggest historical rookies rather than a non historical draft.