2021 Cubs: The Reimagining

[JAF373]

2021 Owner Goals - Tom Ricketts

Make the Playoffs
Not happening, Tommy. By now, the issues with the lineup are well-documented, including, but not limited to, a roster overloaded with the same player archetype (high OBP, low hit tool). The starting pitching staff (more on this below) is an astounding collection of low-velocity arms. There’s also a complete dearth of impact prospects in the upper minors to supplement the roster.

Improve Your Team Starting ERA This Season
3.99 last year will be extremely hard to beat with Darvish gone and an array of soft-tossers reliant upon BABIP luck and health. I give this less than 10% chance of coming to fruition.

Re-sign Kris Bryant
Lots of hard choices looming with Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez all in the final year of their contracts. Of the group, Bryant is the most logical re-sign candidate, but his current demand (7 yr/$140M) belies his recent performance.

Win a World Series within four (4) years
Heh.

Date of Takeover: April 21, 2021 (Live Start)
Control: GM with control of lineups
2021 Payroll: $144.9M (12th)
Money for Free Agents: $44.8M
Minor League System Ranking: 25th
Owner Focus: Win Now
Fan Loyalty: 100/100
Projected Record: 79-83

League Settings
Trades: Very hard/Favor prospects
Ratings: 20-80 (increments of five)
Lineups: Analytics-heavy

FRANCHISE OUTLOOK
-It’s a unique situation with a loyal - and demanding - fan base that begrudgingly recognizes the mediocrity of its current roster but likely won’t put up with a prolonged rebuild. Additionally, Baez, Rizzo, and Bryant - all of whom are on expiring contracts - are perceived “cornerstone” players whose intangible value is partially derived by their marketability and name recognition, which poses issues for potential trades and cratering fan morale.

-With only Jason Heyward, David Bote, and Kyle Hendricks under contract beyond 2022, there’s an opportunity to wholly remake the organization in relatively short order...if the fans and ownership allow it.

-The looming issue is that, per MLB Trade Values, the Cubs don’t have a player in the top 100 in trade value. Ian Happ (30.9) and Wilson Contreras (28.7) both check in around #150, and neither would generate a franchise-altering trade return. Jason Heyward (-59.7) has the 6th-lowest value in baseball and Craig Kimbrel (-6.7) would also be a tough move unless we eat most (or all) of the money to enhance the prospective return.

-As I dig into the roster, the most glaring issue is that the team lacks “pure” hitters. As we attempt to turn over the roster in the next few seasons, finding more balance and diversifying hitter prototypes is arguably the top priority.

-The farm situation is...moribund. In the upper minors, only Nico Hoerner, Miguel Amaya, and Brailyn Marquez even have a chance to profile as *potential* everyday players, and none of this trio has “star” upside (all are 45-50 types). From top to bottom, the entire system is in dire need of a talent infusion.

-In summary, this is the worst of “both worlds” in that there are no valuable assets in the bigs and there is a distinct lack of upside in the minors. Tough scene.

Scroll below for month-by-month updates beginning with April 2021.

[JAF373]

Right on schedule! Second-worst offense and worst pitching staff in the NL. Fortunately, it appears we’ll avoid the dreaded purgatory scenario near the Deadline and won’t be caught between the rebuild and a playoff push.

-The only productive hitter has been Wilson Contreras (.269/.383/.654, 1.1 WAR). I’ve started exploring a potential extension (FA after next season), but he wants a 9-year deal. That’s simply not going to happen with a catcher who has already logged some massive workloads.

-Kris Bryant has been unlucky thus far (.230 BABIP) but has still posted a 128 wRC and .314 ISO despite the surface numbers appearing disappointing.

-Javy Baez has fanned 42% of the time. There’s nothing more to say here that hasn’t already been said.

-If Jake Arrieta (3.69 ERA, 4.07 FIP) can continue posting decent peripherals, he might be worth a 40 FV prospect at the Deadline. He’s making just $4M this season with a $10M team option next season.

-Zach Davies has never been a strikeout guy, but his control has deserted him this season. 16 strikeouts and 15 walks through 30 innings is astoundingly awful.

-Very rough first month for Adbert Adzolay (8.64 ERA, 5.86 FIP), who we desperately need to flourish into a serviceable arm. There remains a glimmer of hope with his 11.4K/9, but his extreme flyball tendencies and flat fastball leave him susceptible to blow-up innings.

April Transactions
-None

[JAF373]

05/07/21: DFA’ed 2B/SS Idelmargo Vargas
-An odd off-season signing by the prior regime, Vargas was duplicative on a roster that also included Eric Sogard, Matt Duffy, and David Bote. After playing the customary service time games, we replaced him on the active roster with Nico Hoerner (who was subsequently sent back down after a .595 OPS over three weeks of full-time ABs). Vargas cleared waivers and returned to AAA Iowa.

05/10/21: Released RHP Shelby Miller
-My predecessor inked Miller to a minor league deal in January and the team promoted him to the bigs a week prior to my arrival. In six forgettable appearances, he allowed ten runs over six innings and walked nine. Toronto signed him into a minor league deal a week after I cut him loose.

05/20/21: Placed RHP Brandon Workman on the 60-day IL
-The bullpen took a bit of a hit as Workman will miss the remainder of the season (and perhaps a bit of next season) with a torn UCL. He’s only under contract through this season.

05/24/21: Traded RHP Craig Kimbrel and $2,000,000 to Toronto for RHP Jordan Romano


Finally, some fireworks. For obvious reasons, cellar-dwelling teams do not need $16M closers. We agreed to eat the remainder of Kimbrel’s contract (approximately $11.7M this season) and added $2M in cash to bring in Jordan Romano, a late-blooming reliever who my scout confidently grades as a current (and future) 45. Most importantly, he’s under team control through 2025. He was a workhorse for Toronto, appearing in 15 of 46 games prior to the trade with 19 strikeouts in 16 innings but a high ERA due to an inflated BABIP (.375). Meanwhile, Kimbrel obviated a glaring roster need for the win-now Jays, who were struggling at the back end of the pen with Kirby Yates on the shelf for at least the next few months. We're going closer-by-committee with Dan Winkler getting the first crack at the gig, but it'll almost certainly devolve into an unpredictable and revolving door.

05/27/21: Signed C Wilson Contreras to a 6-year contract extension for $123.9M
-This one wasn’t easy, but after a few rounds of dancing (and getting his 9-year demand down significantly), we were able to lock in our most valuable roster piece. Willy is on his way to starting in his third consecutive All-Star game and is having a quasi-MVP caliber season (.302/.395/.616, 13 HR, 31 RBI, .420 WOBA) despite playing in a dysfunctional lineup. The sixth year is a team option and affords us some flexibility if he starts backsliding in the latter years of the deal. By way of relevant (and recent) comparison, Realmuto’s deal with the Phillies was 5 years/$115M. As an added bonus, we’ll also be able to dangle Miguel Amaya - universally regarded among the top ten catching prospects in baseball - as an appetizing trade piece. Through the first month, Amaya is more than holding his own as a 22-year old in Double A (.366 wOBA and equivalent walk and strikeout rates).

05/30/21: Signed RHP Collin McHugh to a 1-year/$650,000 contract
-With our rotation unable to provide length and the bullpen in tatters, we need useful arms from every possible source. The Rays cut McHugh loose after two brief IL stints (including an oblique injury) and a couple of rough outings, but I sent my scout out three different times to confirm that he’s still a 45. Really useful multi-inning guy who can hopefully rebuild a modicum of trade value in the next few months.

[JAF373]

June 18, 2021 (Team record: 25-42)

Transactions

06/02/21: Traded RHP Cory Abbott to Los Angeles Dodgers for 3B Cristian Santana and RHP Andre Jackson


On the surface, this seems like a minor move, but it's emblematic of what I'm trying to do in Chicago. Abbott entered the season as the 11th-best prospect in the organization and pitched quite well over 22.1 big league innings (all in relief), compiling a 3.22 ERA (4.94 FIP) with 27 strikeouts and 10 walks. Rather than waiting for the downfall (.235 BABIP), I struck while his stock was elevated and dealt him to the pitching-ravaged Dodgers, who have nearly half of their pitchers on the IL. Every scouting report pointed to Abbott's ceiling as a "spot starter" or multi-inning bulk eater. It's not that bulk guys aren't valuable in modern baseball (they certainly are), but more so that Andre Jackson is almost a full year younger and comes with a higher ceiling (and a lower floor). Since arriving in AAA Iowa, Jackson, 25, is 2-0 (3 starts) over 18 innings with more than a strikeout per inning (3.44 ERA). I'm not adding him to the 40-man for now, but he may get a big league shot later in the season. The real wild card here, though, is Cristian Santana, 24, who signed back in 2014 for $170,000. It's your typical "pull hitter" profile, but he's a premium defender on the corners (60 1B, 55 3B) and is showing vastly improved batting skills in AAA this season. Between OKC and Iowa, he's slashing a prolific .332/.363/.604 with 8 home runs in 100 at-bats (.277 ISO). Perhaps it's just a small-sample hot streak, but my scouts think he's a 45. Potential gem here and, maybe, just maybe, he'll find at some at-bats on the corners later this season if a certain guy (or two) are no longer occupying those positions at Wrigley...

06/07/21: Claimed 1B/OF Jake Bauers off Waivers from Cleveland
-60 defender at 1B and LF with 65 plate discipline (double-digit walk rates in each of his first four MLB seasons). Got squeezed out of Cleveland and was out of options. Had a .755 OPS at the time of the waiver claim and should be a decent fit backing up Rizzo and getting periodic starts in LF against RHP. If it goes well, he's an option for an increased role next season as he won't be arb-eligible until after 2022.

06/18/21: Traded SS Javy Baez to Oakland for LHP Sean Manaea, SS Elvis Andrus, and OF Luis Barrera


What the Cubs Get
Given the circumstances, it's a quality return. Sean Manaea is a durable innings-eater and just inked an extension last month with the A's (pre-trade) that will keep him in Chitown through 2025 at approximately $11M per season. We're desperate for length from our starters and he has the added perk of being a lefty in a rotation full of right-handers. The over-arching goal of this rebuild-that-isn't-truly-a-rebuild is to add high-floor pieces in the upper minors and majors while building the high-ceiling guys up from the low minors.

The key to consummating the deal was agreeing to accept pitifully under-performing Elvis Andrus, who currently grades out among all players with at least 100 PA's as the worst player in baseball. Yeah, it's that bad (.167/.207/.259). Fortunately, he's owed just $4M the rest of this season and $6.7M next season. We can bury him on the bench, or, if necessary, bite the bullet and cut bait. Things became so dire in Oakland that the A's parked Andrus on the bench and promoted Nick Allen - their top infield prospect - straight from High-A. Predictably, Allen has been overmatched by big league pitching (43 OPS+) and the A's - positioned to win now - felt that their organizational approach could fix some of Baez' longstanding woes and cure their internal shortstop deficiency. It's unlikely Baez re-signs in Oakland long-term, but the short-term marriage is a logical one and they rid themselves of a a burdensome 2022 salary hit with Andrus gone.

The other guy in the deal, Luis Barrera, 25, was Oakland's 7th-rated prospect per MLB Pipeline and is one who I specifically targeted because he offers a skillset anathema to the current Cubs organization with 65 speed and 60 steals/baserunning. He also possesses a rocket arm (65) tailor-made for right field at Wrigley. My scouts thinks he's an overall 45 with a chance to hold down a part-time outfield role as a premium defender and runner with a high-contact hitting approach. He took a major step forward at AAA Vegas prior to the trade, ranking near the top of the PCL in OPS (.321/.357/.513) and carried a paltry 13.9% K rate. He won't walk much, but he could carve out a role towards the bottom of the big league lineup as soon as mid-summer.

[Sanfi74]

Great recap ... good luck!

[JAF373]

Team Record: 28-55

Things happen slowly, and then all at once. A bad season quickly turned horrendous as we went 7-21 in June. The fans - despite knowing things would be tough this year - are in open rebellion. Predictably, the Baez trade incited quite a bit of fan anger.

Anyway, here's where things stand at the halfway point and with the trade deadline less than four weeks away.

Catchers
Wilson Contreras: .259/.351/.531, 17 HR, 38 RBI, 2.3 WAR
-Signed a 6-year, $123M extension in early June and having another really solid year despite the general ineptitude of the lineup. Currently third among all catchers in WAR.

Austin Romine: .209/.234/.264, 0 HR, 6 RBI
-On a competitive team, I would be concerned about Romine's futility, but in the context of this miserable season, he's the least of my concerns. We'll look elsewhere in the off-season for a back-up catching option, but for now, he'll continue catching about once per week.

First Base
Anthony Rizzo: .251/.339/.408, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 0.8 WAR
-Demanded a trade a few weeks ago and we're doing what we can to find him a viable suitor. He's still owed about $8.2M this season, but we'd consider picking up the tab in order to enhance the return in a potential trade. I've been kicking around some offers from the Yankees and my scouts have gotten quite a few looks at some of their mid-level prospects. Almost certainly a pure rental for a contender.

Potential Destinations: NYY, BOS, TB, SF

Jake Bauers: .141/.207/.282, 3 HR, 7 RBI
-Picked up off waivers from Cleveland about four weeks ago. Struggling to get going with 33 strikeouts in 85 at-bats (35.5% K rate) after striking out just 24% of the time in nearly 200 PA's with the Indians. Assuming Rizzo is dealt in the next few weeks, he'll get a major opportunity to right the ship and carve out a longer term role with our club.

Second Base/Shortshop
Ian Happ: .195/.320/.310, 8 HR, 30 RBI, -0.5 WAR
-The biggest disappointment in a season replete with them, Happ still has some trade value because he's only 26, can play all three outfield positions and second base, and is under team control through 2023. He's unlikely to turn things around in Chicago and we'll aggressively shop him in the next few weeks.

Eric Sogard: .259/.333/.342, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 0.2 WAR
-He's been our lead-off hitter for the last two months because he's essentially the only guy who can consistently get on base. Clearly, any season in which Eric Sogard has 200 at-bats at the end of June is a bad one, but that's hardly his fault. The Marlins have expressed some interest in acquiring him as a bench bat and backup infielder.

Nico Hoerner: .247/.276/.342, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 0.2 WAR
-Came up in the first week of May and looked completely overmatched (59 OPS+, .074 ISO). Went down to Iowa and ripped up AAA pitching (.922 OPS) over 76 PA's. We were set to bring him back to Wrigley when he went down with intercostal strain that put him on the shelf for a few weeks. Set to return to the bigs tomorrow and will get the remainder of the season to prove himself at either 2B or SS with Baez out of town (and potentially Sogard soon, too).

David Bote: .187/.273/.304, 3 HR, 14 RBI, -0.6 WAR
-Yep, it's as ugly as it looks. Over nearly 200 plate appearances, he was among the very worst part-time players in the league. Such a massive disappointment after the prior regime locked him up long-term on a team-friendly deal through 2026. While the BABIP (.244) indicates some degree of bad luck, he wasn't driving the ball at all (.117 ISO). Fortunately, he had two options remaining and we sent him down to Iowa last week to try and rectify whatever is ailing him.

Third Base
Kris Bryant: .237/.321/.462, 13 HR, 35 RBI, 1.2 WAR
-Got hit in the finger with a pitch on June 18 and sustained a pretty nasty fracture that will keep him out until about a week before the Deadline. We approached him regarding an extension in May (and again in early June) but he wanted nothing to do with us. Reading the tea leaves, he appears set to test the free agency waters. Maybe we'll get a trade offer when he returns before the Deadline, but this whole situation is regrettable on all sides.

Potential Destinations: TBD

Matt Duffy: .235/.291/.353, 1 HR, 3 RBI, -0.1 WAR
-Spent about 2/3 of the season at Iowa, where he's been sub-replacement level. Came back up a few weeks ago when Bryant was hit in the hand by a pitch, but it's been more of the same. Complete overpay by the prior regime and we'll be parting ways with him this off-season.

Outfielders
Joc Pederson: .218/.320/.441, 16 HRI, 48 RBI, 1.1 WAR
-Things going about as expected here as Joc brought over from LA his standard low batting average, decent on-base skills, and above-average power. He, too, recently demanded a trade and I'm inclined to grant his wish if the return is sufficient. With just $2.2M left on this year's contract, he would be easy to move to a contending team. He also has an opt-out clause for next year (and we could decline his $10M team option). We've had recent (and decent) offers from the Yankees and Jays.

Potential Destinations: NYY, TOR, SD

Jake Marisnick: .221/.289/.308, 1 HR, 6 RBI, -0.1 WAR
-No surprises here. Marisnick is a glove-first guy who can play all three outfield positions. He's always been a high-K rate guy, but it's worse than ever season at 36.8% (and a 6.0% walk rate). Depending on how the roster looks post-deadline, he's a potential DFA candidate.

Jason Heyward: .234/.307/.326, 5 HR, 10 RBI, 0.3 WAR
-$23 million. 218 at-bats. 10 RBIs. And the temerity to demand a trade! This is, with perhaps the exception of Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis, the worst and most immovable contract in baseball. Believe me, J-Hey, if I could move your ass outta town, I would.

Luis Barrera: .216/.302/.378 over 43 PA's
-Acquired two weeks ago from Oakland in the Baez trade, Barrera looks like a key piece for us moving forward. As I noted in the post-trade write-up, he's a defensive stud with 65 speed and 60 stealing grades. He's shown a better eye than the scouting reports indicated (five walks already) and has bat-to-ball/contact skills that are sorely missing from the rest of this roster. He'll get all the playing time he can handle over the final three months of the season.

July Trade Candidates
1B Anthony Rizzo
2B/OF Ian Happ
2B Eric Sogard
OF Joc Pederson
C Miguel Amaya (at AA Tennessee)

[JAF373]

July 5, 2021

Cubs Acquire OF Mitch Haniger from Mariners for RHP Benjamin Rodriguez


This one made quite a bit of sense for both sides. Seattle is not contending and quickly promoted top prospects Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic, leaving Haniger in a part-time role in a crowded outfield. He's in his final Arb year next season and is projected to make $6.3M, a princely sum for the cost-conscious Mariners. Jerry DiPoto was practically giving him away this week and Haniger is an ideal fit for us next season as he plays his final year prior to free agency. Thus far, he's hit .256/.288/.459 with 13 homers, but the walk rate (3.6%) is downright putrid. His center field defense has slipped (currently a 40) but he's still above-average in the corners (60 LF and RF).

This move also throws the fans a bone and indicates that we're not purely in "tear down" mode.

Benjamin Rodriguez is a fringe top 30 prospect with a future "35" grade. He was old for rookie ball (21) but showed wipeout stuff with 53 strikeouts over 39 innings (seven starts). He slots in as #24 on Seattle's prospect list and I assume they'll give him a look at Low-A later this year.

In a corresponding move, we DFA'ed Jake Marisnick to free up a spot on the 40-man.

[JAF373]

Some news and notes from around the Cubs organization.





-Unsurprisingly, Wilson Contreras was our lone All-Star selection. Because, well, who else would it be?

-A few of the new arrivals have injected life into our moribund squad. Luis Barrera is on a heater over the last few week, flashing the tools that made him such an appealing trade target in the Baez deal. He's hit safely in ten straight games and hasn't made an error yet.

-Fellow Baez acquisition Sean Manaea needed no time to settle in to the National League, spinning a 1.06 ERA (3.67 FIP) in his first four starts. He's been somewhat lucky, but the contact management and efficiency are exactly what we desired. With 65 stamina, I'm hopeful that he'll age "gracefully" over the next few seasons.

-Mitch Haniger ingratiated himself with the Wrigley faithful in his first game, singling home the winning run in the bottom of the 12th to beat the NL East-leading Phillies. Super small sample (six games), but he's an excellent fit in the lineup.

-Miguel Amaya is among the hottest commodities in baseball after ripping up Double A South as a 22-year old full-time catcher. He's currently third in OPS+ (144) and second in WAR while drawing nearly as many walks (28) as strikeouts (30). Our scouts think he's currently a 45 (50 ceiling) and this is clearly a dude who could handle regular big league at-bats right now. There's little doubt about the defense, where he grades out as a 60.

Austin Romine was nicked by a foul tip and suffered a mild concussion in the final game of the Cardinals series. With three games remaining prior to the All-Star Break, we weren't sure how long he would be out. Amaya was the only other catcher on the 40-man and I didn't want to make a roster move to add another catcher, so we brought Amaya up to the bigs for a brief tryout. He certainly didn't disappoint, cracking a homer in game one and driving in the go-ahead run in a pinch-hit appearance in game two. Romine will likely be ready in time to back up Contreras in the first game out of the break, and we sent Amaya back to Double A to continue getting reps during the ASB. Of course, we're fielding plenty of calls for his services...

Trade Rumors
-One likely playoff team is interested in a package deal for Anthony Rizzo AND Joc Pederson. We're discussing a few different scenarios, but the likeliest return would include a guy who we view as an every day player right now. We're certainly not far apart and the deal could be consummated as soon as next weekend when the league returns from the ASB.

-I'm determined to flip Eric Sogard for something, most likely a 35+ FV prospect with 40ish upside.

-Very tepid interest in the Ian Happ market. I'd rather hang onto him into the off-season and hope for a late-season bounceback rather than selling him at his floor.

-Ditto for our relievers. Dan Winkler, Collin McHugh, Jason Adam, and Rex Brothers could help a contender down the stretch, but there's very little interest with three weeks remaining. McHugh in particular has value as a multi-inning arm and a history of pitching in high-pressure spots late in the season. Andrew Chafin would have been a trade piece, but he went out a few weeks ago with a 7-8 week shoulder injury that will keep him out until after the Deadline. He's pitched to a 3.32 FIP and struck out more than a batter per inning over 31 appearances. We have a team option next year, but at $5.2M, it's probably too steep.

-The Miguel Amaya proposals are all over the place, but unlike the soon-to-be FA veterans, the Amaya suitors include some smaller market teams with no playoff aspirations. My asking price is pretty high right now and I'm inclined to ask for one big league regular (SP or position player) as part of the return.

-Kris Bryant is on track to return approximately a week prior to the Deadline, but there likely won't be enough time for him to re-establish his trade value. Looks like he's stuck with us until the end of September.

[JAF373]

July 26, 2021

Out of nowhere, the team has played solid baseball in July (11-8) despite a roster that remains in flux. In the last two weeks, we've moved a few of our most tradeable assets in advance of the Deadline.

07/12/21 - Traded OF Jake Marisnick to Milwaukee for C Payton Henry


We DFA'ed the uber-struggling Marisnick (.221/.289/.308 over 114 PA's) to make room for Elvis Andrus, who was ready to return from the IL. With Marisnick in DFA limbo (he refused to be outrighted) the outfield-needy Brewers inquired about his services and agreed to ship us Payton Henry, 24, a 40 FV prospect who may eventually carve out a backup role as a glove-first backstop. Given how aggressively we were shopping Miguel Amaya, it made sense to shore up the uppers minors catching depth. He's a likely candidate to be added to the 40-man in the off-season.

07/20/21 - Traded C Miguel Amaya and 2B Eric Sogard to Miami for SP Elieser Hernandez, 1B Luken Baker, and SP Chris Mokma


After dangling Miguel Amaya on the market for several weeks, we finally found the return we were seeking. It made little sense to stash him behind Contreras when we knew he was more than ready for consistent big league reps. The Marlins didn't have a catcher among their top 30 prospects and were desperate for a replacement for the chronically-underperforming Jorge Alfaro (.574 OPS, .055 ISO, -0.1 WAR). Following the trade, Amaya immediately took over primary catcher responsibilities for the Fish.

Miami was consistently the only team to express interest in Eric Sogard, who piled up 272 plate appearances in Chicago this season and served as the primary lead-off hitter from May onward. I wanted him out of the way to free up at-bats for an infield that is suddenly crowded. He'll be a bench bat in Miami behind Jazz Chisolm and Brian Anderson.

Elieser Hernandez, 26, is in the midst of a quasi-breakout season and fits our desired mold as a durable starter with several years of team control. Over eight starts in Miami, he flashed legitimate upside (3-1, 4.74 ERA, 3.67 FIP) with 45 strikeouts and just six walks in 38 innings. Our scouts grade the changeup as an 80 and he carries 60 stamina. He became expendable for the pitching-rich Marlins, who just promoted Braxton Garrett and have arms galore in the upper minors. If things develop as anticipated, Hernandez will join Kyle Hendricks and Sean Manaea as locks for the 2022 rotation.

Luken Baker, 24, is a hulking 6'4, 275-pound first baseman who entered the season as the 10th-ranked prospect in the Cardinals' system but was dealt to Miami for Paul Campbell. The Marlins didn't really have a need for a bat-only 1B with Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper in the bigs and well-regarded Lewin Diaz playing at AAA. I'm higher than most on Baker, who brings 55-grade HR power (potential 60) and 55 discipline. Over two stops at AAA, he crushed pitchers with a .319 ISO and very reasonable 21.5% strikeout rate. If he keeps the strikeouts at around 25% in the bigs, he'll be a useful bat as soon as next year, particularly if we need to replace Rizzo.

Chris Mokma, 20, was Miami's 25th-ranked prospect entering this season. He's your typical "pitchability" LHP at 6'4, 190 with a 4-pitch mix. There's a decent floor here as a low-end starter. The Marlins gave him an aggressive assignment to Low-A (he just turned 20) and he more than held his own with a 4.06 ERA (3.86 FIP) while adding velocity (now sits 93-95). He's never going to miss a ton of bats, but the command and advanced arsenal gives him a shot to move more quickly than most mid-round picks.

07/24/21: Traded OF Joc Pederson to NYY for SP Clarke Schmidt and OF Jacob Sanford


We had a decent offers from the Red Sox and Mets, but I preferred Schmidt over the other options. The Yankees were getting paltry production from much of the outfield with Aaron Hicks (.693 OPS), Gio Stanton (.711) and Mike Tauchmann (.723) all struggling intermittently. Pederson won't do much to help the batting average, but his .214 ISO and pull-heavy swing will play well at Yankee Stadium. He was only owed about $1.9M at the time of the trade and the Yankees are free to decline next year's $10M team option. Joc was an odd signing by the prior regime and never looked like a future part of our plans.

Clarke Schmidt, 25, was the Yankees' 4th-ranked prospect at the start of the season (borderline top 100 consensus) and has endured various injuries since being picked in the first round back in 2017. He didn't get going until June this season and made just four AA starts before a quick promotion to AAA for two starts prior to the trade. He struck out 33 over 31 innings but was victimized by a .451 BABIP that inflated his surface stats. I do have some concerns about his endurance and he may end up only being a 5-inning guy in the bigs, but the 4-pitch mix and groundball tendencies give him a mid-rotation ceiling. I sent him to Double A following the trade, but if things go well, he can finish the season at AAA with a chance to compete for a big league rotation spot next spring.

Jacob Sanford, 23, is a power-first, 3-true-outcomes corner OF bat. Despite being a college player, he's going to be quite a project because the hit tool is so ordinary. The power (55-60) is real, but we'll have to be patient as he slowly climbs through the system. He'll finish out this season at Low-A with a goal of lowering his current strikeout rate (24%) while maintaining a double-digit walk rate.

[JAF373]

The wait is over. After a very public trade demand and some ugliness on all sides, we were able to extend free-agent-to-be Anthony Rizzo on a 5-year, $87M deal that will keep him on the North Side through 2026. Along with Wilson Contreras , the Rizzo extension is emblematic of a managerial approach that is attempting to strike a delicate balance between "rebuild" and "reload." Rizzo unambiguously rejected the 5-year, $70M deal prior to the season and demanded a 6-year, $117 deal in early July. We went back and forth a few times before finalizing the new pact four days prior to the Deadline.

We made two small deals during Deadline week, and neither of them involved Kris Bryant, who refuses to negotiate during the season. We're hopeful to talk when free agency opens, but his return looks increasing dubious.

07/27/21: Traded RHP Dan Winkler to Chicago for LHP Bailey Horn


Dan Winkler turned in a strong season for us and performed capably as a closer following Craig Kimbrel's departure (10 saves in 11 opportunities). His ERA (2.50) was more than a full run below his FIP (3.76), but it wasn't entirely fluky as he struck out 10.4 per 9. Given that he's 31 and on a 1-year deal, his trade value was essentially non-existent, but the White Sox found a spot for him in one of the league's best bullpens. Bailey Horn, 23, isn't a top 30 guy and likely won't ever miss enough bats to reach the bigs, but he'll provide innings in the upper minors.

07/29/21: Traded 1B Jake Bauers to Boston for RHP Connor Seabold


Jake Bauers was an early June waiver claim from Cleveland but never figured it out in Chicago, scuffling to a .177/.252/.315 line with a 32% K rate over 144 PAs. He's a valuable defender in 1B and LF (60 both) and has drawn double-digit each season in the majors. Boston leads a tight 3-team race in the AL East and was getting below-average production at 1B with Bobby Dalbec and Marwin Gonzalez and in left field with Francy Cordero (72 OPS+, demoted following the Bauers acquisition). Realistically, Bauers' ideal positional fit with the Sox helped us squeeze out a better prospect return.

Connor Seabold, 25, is a polarizing prospect who ranked 8th on FanGraphs' list and 14th at MLB Pipeline. Scouts are split on his viability as a starter, but he's solely worked in that capacity this season at AAA Worcester (10-3, 2.63 ERA, 3.67 FIP) over 15 starts. I'm pretty confident in the floor because he's a consistent strike-thrower and has a deep repertoire, but the ceiling remains an unknown. He's a candidate for a late-season call-up when rosters expand but could also be the first guy in line to replace an injured starter in the big league rotation.

[JAF373]

Team Record: 51-83

We're in a heated 4-team race for the #1 pick in 2022!

Some updated stats as we head down the stretch...



Can't blame Wilson Contreras for this miserable season. He's second among all catchers in WAR (Realmuto) and 11th in MLB in ISO. His contract extension is on a very short list of bright spots in 2021.

Austin Romine is standard, replacement-level fodder as a modern backup catcher, but he's not worth $1.5M. Hopefully Payton Henry can win the job out of camp next season. Otherwise, we may get stuck with Romine or a comparable veteran.



-The offensive "bar" for third basemen grows higher each year and Kris Bryant ranks outside of the top 15 in OPS+ among full-time 3B. The .236 ISO is adequate for the position, but a .334 OBP doesn't justify his likely asking price on the open market. Even if he's willing to talk to us after the season, I'm just not sure he's really worth the money (especially given the injury history) as we prioritize spending up for one of the big ticket shortstops.

-Anthony Rizzo's .331 wOBA is his lowest in a full season since 2013, but I'm optimistic that he'll (mostly) bounce back next season in what will likely be a far more functional lineup. The walk and strikeout rates are in line with recent seasons and, with the distraction of the contract situation behind him, I'd expect a better performance in 2022.

-It's been an interesting year for Nico Hoerner, who looked overwhelmed in May after opening the season at the alternate site. After a month-long reset in Iowa, he posted a combined .355 wOBA in June and July while playing shortstop full-time for us out of necessity. We'll be heavily-involved with the loaded SS class this off-season and he may be able to shift back to 2B next season.

-Totally lost season for David Bote. After two "find yourself" months in Iowa, I brought him back to Chicago for the entirety of August and gave him a full complement of at-bats (94). And yet, again...nothing (.576 OPS, 33% K rate). He has a minor league option remaining next season if we need to stash him at Iowa again. Maybe the most disappointing the development of our entire 2021 season.

-Dealing with Elvis Andrus' ineptitude was the price to pay for a strong return in the Javy Baez deal. Fortunately, we've only had to give him 59 at-bats in his 2.5 months with the team. He's completely done as a hitter (30 overall rating) and isn't even useful defensively anymore.

-So far, so good for Luken Baker, who came to the North Side in the Miguel Amaya deal. After 82 productive ABs at Iowa, I added him to the 40-man and a few days later to the big league roster in advance of a 6-game swing through the AL. There's an obvious ceiling here because of the defensive limitations, but that ceiling - if everything clicks - could be a right-handed hitting Nate Lowe. With Rizzo sticking around for awhile, his future with the club might be contingent upon whether MLB adopts the universal DH in 2022. Otherwise, he's a useful trade target for an American League team.






I don't have enough superlatives for Luis Barrera, who ranks tenth among all rookie hitters in WAR despite not debuting until late June following the Baez trade. He was NL Rookie of the Month in July while hitting .402, including a 13-game hitting streak, nine of which were multi-hit games. While most young left-handed hitters struggle with southpaw pitching, he's been significantly better versus lefties (.965 OPS LHP; .805 RHP). He's dynamic at the top of the order and is striking out just 18.2% of the time. His aggression on the basepaths is sorely needed on our stationary roster, but he needs to improve his efficiency (7/13 on SB attempts). After a few years of searching for a lead-off hitter, the Cubs appear to have found "the guy," and he's become an immediate fan favorite with his electric style of play.

Mitch Haniger has underwhelmed since arriving from Seattle in early July. I didn't expect much in the on-base department, but the power disappeared after he left the Mariners (.203 ISO to .114 ISO). He seemed like a lock for next year's roster, but it's a closer call now, especially if he demands $5M+ entering his final arb year.

Alfonso Rivas is our 16th-ranked prospect and offers one of the most unique profiles in the system as a high-OBP/low power 1B/LF. Our scouts label him a current 40/future 45 with 65 discipline and a potential 60 hit tool. He was second in Double A East in on-base percentage prior to a mid-August big league promotion (.419), but the complete lack of power at 1B/LF makes him a dicey long-term fit. There's very little recent precedent for this type of player, but I'm giving him an extended two-month look to finish out this season.

By the way, how often do you see this spray chart from a left-handed hitter?

[JAF373]

Sometimes, in a lost season, it's the little things that are the most gratifying. A day after losing 19-3, the worst pitching staff in baseball deployed Dillon Maples as an opener in front of Andre Jackson, who was making his MLB debut.

After the dust settled and all ten pitchers took the mound, much-maligned Adbert Adzolay, who recorded just one out and allowed five runs the evening prior, struck out Luis Urias with the tying run at second to record his first (and probably only) career save.

[JAF373]

Hitting







Pitching

[JAF373]

November 15, 2021

In the updated rankings, our system is now 18th after starting last season 25th. The infusion of talent continues apace and we now have six prospects in the top 110. Among the top 30 in our system, nine were acquired since we took over in April, including #32 overall Jordan Wicks (LHP from Kansas State, our first round pick). Incrementally, the future is looking more promising in Wrigleyville.

Despite the horror show of a season, ownership nonetheless bequeathed us with a substantial budget for 2022. We have an obscene $78M available this off-season, partly due to shedding some bigger contracts.

So, with that, off we go.

Zach Davies and Rex Brothers were released in mid-September to open up roster spots for some of the younger arms. Both were on one-year deals and are now free agents.



Elieser Hernandez was stellar following his arrival in the Miguel Amaya trade. His general weakness is an extreme fly-ball rate, but he was never particularly victimized by the pernicious Wrigley wind. This is his first arb year and he should remain cost-effective through the end of team control. He'll be a key cog in next year's rotation.

Trevor Williams more or less met (low) expectations, but with a wave of higher-upside young pitching in the upper minors (Seabold, Schmidt, Marquez, Andre Jackson) he's nothing but an impediment at this point. Non-tender.

Ryan Tepera, Kyle Ryan, and Jonathan Holder are all 40's with obvious warts. Holder walked as many as he struck out in the bigs this season and Ryan doesn't have the stuff to miss bats. Non-tenders.

Tony Wolters is a predictable entity at this point in his career. He's among the best defensive catchers in baseball and is worthwhile insurance for a cheap price. I'm seeking a higher-upside option to back up Contreras in the bigs, but it's reassuring to have Wolters at Iowa should the need arise.

I'm begrudgingly re-upping Matt Duffy, whose versatility is at least moderately useful as a "quad-A' type of player.

Mitch Haniger was the toughest call. He picked things up in the final weeks of the season but there's reason for concern after his walk rate cratered in 2021. He's still above-average in RF and is a needed right-handed hitting complement to our (present) group of left-handed hitting outfielders. His $5.3M demand was rather steep, but this settle in somewhere in the low-to-mid $4M+ range. This will be his final season before free agency.

Ian Happ is missing from the above screenshot because...

11/14/21: Traded 2B/OF Ian Happ to LA Dodgers for SS Jacob Amaya


Jacob Amaya just turned 23 and put up a nearly 5.0 WAR season at Double-A. Following the trade, he checks in as our 24th-ranked prospect, which I think is somewhat low given his advanced approach (.392 OBP) and 55 glove at SS (45 at 2B). I'm unclear how this offseason will shake out with the loaded shortstop FA market, but at a minimum he can function over the next few seasons as a competent backup at either middle infield spot with potential upside for more than that.



The Dodgers targeted Ian Happ's multi-position flexibility and on-base skills as a switch-hitter. Despite his horrid 2011 season, he still wanted $4.6M in his second arb season. I didn't feel that he could turn things around in Chicago and opted to cut bait now rather than undertaking another potentially painful season with him in 2022.

Voided Team Options

Jake Arrieta ($10M) - easiest decision since taking over the franchise. Arrieta looks completely washed and isn't worth $2M, let alone $10M. Left-handed hitters slugged .445 off of him and he walked 13 more LH hitters than he struck out.

Andrew Chafin ($5.5M) - still a quality relief arm, particularly against LHB, but not worth the money at this juncture. I'd be happy to bring him back at a number closer to his 2021 salary ($2.5M).

Qualifying Offers


Almost assuredly, this will be the end of the Kris Bryant era. I fully expect him to reject the qualifying offer and choose free agency. If so, we'll receive a comp pick and wish him a fond farewell.

Non-Compensatory Free Agents


I'd love to have Collin McHugh back for around $1M-$1.5M, but he's not interested in chatting at the moment. He was a damn workhorse for us after the Rays let him go in late April but looked worn down in the final month and his numbers took a hit. He made 55 appearances and functioned at some point in just about every possible role (opener, follower, middle relief, high-leverage).

[Highlander]

Good stuff here....good luck in 2022!!

[JAF373]

Originally Posted by Highlander

Good stuff here....good luck in 2022!!

Much appreciated. This has been good fun.

[JAF373]

Things...have been happening.

The NL is adopting the DH in 2022 and this change played a significant role in our approach to the off-season.

Transactions

11/02/21: Acquired SS Jacob Amaya from LAD for 2B/OF Ian Happ
-Discussed in detail in previous post. Amaya will likely open the season at AAA Iowa but is near the front of the line for a big league promotion.

11/29/21: Acquired RHP Dylan Floro from HOU for 1B Cameron Balego
The Astros spent money like drunken sailors early in free agency (Bryant, Robbie Ray, D'Arnaud) and needed to clear of their lower-tier assets off the books. Floro was awarded $2.1M at arbitration but was expendable from a loaded Houston bullpen. He was a workhorse in 73 innings pitched last season with a 2.71 ERA (3.24 FIP) and immediately bolsters the soft underbelly of our middle relief group. Balego is 26 and scuffled to a 98 OPS+ in Double A last season. There's some power, but he's unlikely to ever reach the bigs.

12/06/21: Signed free agent 3B Nolan Arenado to a 4 yr/$142M contract
-Oh yes. It happened. Following a contentious season in St. Louis and a much-publicized disagreement with Mike Schildt, Arenado opted out of his contract and joined the Dark Side. I thought he might be back in the market for a 6 or 7-year deal, but instead he was content with four years and a comparable amount of money to what he had in St. Louis. There's little need for me to elaborate any further. He's one of the best ten overall position players in baseball and more than eases the pain of losing Kris Bryant at third base. The initial plan is to bat him cleanup behind Barrera, Contreras, and Rizzo.

12/10/21: Acquired LHP Brent Suter from MIL for RHP Wilkeman Ramirez
-Very similar story to the Floro situation with the Brewers in salary purgatory and unable to afford luxuries like $1.8M arb awards for middle relievers. Suter wasn't nearly as efficient as his 2020 season and uncharacteristically allowed 11 homers in 55 innings, pitching to a 3.63 ERA (4.67 FIP). He's still hell on lefties and the overall K/BB rate remained elite (47 K, 12 BB). Really strong addition to our 'pen and takes away a bullet from a division rival. Wilkeman Ramirez, 21, is an actual prospect - not just organizational fodder - and slots in at #27 in the Brewers' system rankings. My scout thinks he has a 40 ceiling with a potentially elite changeup but otherwise underwhelming offerings. We have enough organizational pitching depth now to occasionally deal away a fringier type guy to help the big league roster.

12/17/21: Selected LHP Damon Jones in the Rule 5 Draft from PHI
-A rare instance of our scouting department being higher on a player than OSA, Jones, 27, is now essentially just a 2-pitch guy after abandoning his changeup. Fortunately, those two pitches are both electric (70 fastball, 75 slider) with 60 movement and 65 stuff with the fastball topping out at 96. He posted a 3.57 ERA (3.32 FIP) over 35.1 IP in AAA Lehigh Valley, striking out 39 and walking 16 with two just two homers allowed. At 6'4 with a left-handed FB/slider combo, he could be a Jake Diekman clone with better command.

12/26/21: Signed free agent RHP Collin McHugh to a 1 yr/$1.2M contract
-Mentioned my affinity for McHugh in the end-of-season recap and we struck a new deal with him shortly after the start of free agency. He's still an overall 45 with accompanying 45 stamina and can fill a variety of roles within the 'pen.

01/08/22: Signed free agent LHP James Paxton to a 1 yr/$9.7M contract
-Major risk/reward play on Paxton, who missed all of 2021 following TJ surgery. I've obtained three separate reports on him and my scouting department insists - with "very high" confidence - that he's still a 65. I'll believe it when I see it, but even if he's only a 50-55, this would be an excellent deal for us. He's unlikely to remain healthy enough to make 30+ starts, but on a one-year "prove it" deal, I'll roll the dice in search of a lofty ceiling.

01/20/22: Signed free agent C Curt Casali to a 1 yr/$1.3M contract
-Casali is an upgrade over Austin Romine, who the prior regime paid $1.5M last season to post a -0.2 WAR. He's a 60 defensively with a history of posting above-average on-base percentages. I hoped to be able to turn over back-up duties to Payton Henry, but he's not quite ready yet offensively and will open the season in AAA Iowa.

01/25/22: Signed free agent RHP Corey Knebel to a 2 yr/$10.3M contract
-The late-season Jordan Romano closer experiment fared rather poorly last season, though in fairness to Romano, he wasn't brought here to be a closer and was thrust into the role following the Dan Winkler trade. Knebel has a checkered injury history, but he was among the best closers in baseball a few years ago and thrived in a setup role for the WS champion Dodgers in 2021, posting a 3.51 FIP over 69.1 innings, striking out 95 (12.4K/9). He initially asked for a 3-year deal, but I added a bit of money to bring him back down to two.

01/31/22: Acquired 2B/SS Jorge Polanco from MIN for RHP Adbert Alzolay, SS Luis Vazquez, and OF Edmond Americaan
-With Nico Hoerner developing into an above-average defender at shortstop (in addition to a 65 grade at 2B), we had a choice in finding his double-play partner. The best option was Polanco, who the Twins put on the block to clear a massive infield glut that now includes Royce Lewis, Luis Arraez, and free agent acquisition Jose Iglesias (along with Sano, Donaldson, J.T. Riddle, and Jorge Mateo). Polanco's contract (signed after the 2019 season) is a bit risky in that he'll make a reasonable $5M in 2022, but that number climbs to $7.5M in 2023 and $10M in 2024. His on-base skills have eroded over the past two seasons (.304 and .297 OBP), but I envision him hitting at the bottom of the lineup, where his elite contact profile and above-average gap power should play rather well. He's also a 60-grade defender at 2B and rounds out an infield that should be among the best in the league defensively. He was furious at his situation in Minnesota and should be much happier in an every day role with us.

Meanwhile, the pitcher-needy Twins envision Alzolay, 26, as a worthy reclamation project. He was among the most frequently scouted players in our system, and the result was always the same - he's a 40 with no further upside. His lack of command led to too many combustible innings and he lacks the stamina to get deep into games. With one minor league option remaining, the Twins may see him as a Quad-A player who can bounce between AAA and the bigs as needed. Vazquez, 22, is a light-hitting defensive wizard with 70 range at shortstop who hit just one home run in 362 PAs at High-A. He's not a top 30 guy, but the prolific glove may eventually carry him into a bench role. Americaan, 24, is a rangy outfielder (65) who almost certainly won't hit enough to "make it." He's decent upper minors depth, but his 103 OPS+ in his age-24 season at High-A points to rather limited upside.

02/02/22: Claimed RHP Felix Pena off waivers from LAA
-Pena won his arbitration case against the Angels, who promptly put him on waivers rather than paying his $1.4M award. I really like him as a multi-inning guy who could open or follow against right-handed heavy lineups. He pitched to a 4.56 FIP over 39 innings, striking out 46 and walking 18. The left/right splits were stark, as has been the case throughout his big league career.

02/02/22: Acquired 1B/DH Mike Ford from NYY for SP Erich Uelmen
-With the NL adopting the DH in 2022, Ford became an attractive trade target. After spending most of 2021 obliterating AAA pitching, he was again unlikely to find much playing time on a loaded Yankees roster that needs to find at bats for a slew of high-priced names. Over 426 PA's at AAA, Ford tied for the league lead in homers (32) and led in OPS+ by a wide margin (166) with a .416 wOBA. I envision him hitting fifth or sixth against RHP. Uelmen, 25, turned in a strong year AA Tennessee and finished second in the Pitcher of the Year voting. With just a 7.4 K/9 rate, I view his ceiling as rather limited, but he's tremendous at staying off the barrel with 60 movement (only nine HRs allowed in 149 IP). He's the Yankees' #17 prospect.

02/07/22: Acquired OF Jimmy Herron from COL for RHP Andre Jackson and OF Owen Caissie, and $1.3M cash
-I'm enamored with outfield versatility and Herron, 25, fits the bill with 60 range and an ability to play all three spots. He was the gold glove winner in LF at AA South and made just two errors over 89 games at AA/AAA. Over 362 PA's at AA, he hit .295/.393/.442 with 8 HR and 40 RBI and a 132 OPS+. He's a current 40 with 45 upside and the skillset is tailor-made to compete for a big league role next season. He'll open this season at Iowa and is our 25th-ranked prospect. Andre Jackson arrived in the organization last season in the Cory Abbott deal and pitched relatively well over 90 innings at Iowa, striking out 100 but walking 65 (4.51 FIP a full run higher than his ERA). He had a 3-game sniff of the majors in September and held his own, but ultimately, the 35-grade command is going to keep him from being a reliable arm. Caissie arrived last year from San Diego in the Darvish deal and has 45 upside, but I think he's too much of a free-swinger. A 69:13 K/BB rate in rookie ball portends some future trouble and he's well below-average defensively in the outfield. He's now the 16th-rated prospect in a barren-but-improving Colorado system.

02/14/22: Acquired OF Adam Duvall from MIA for SS Scott McKeon
-With Mike Ford the likely DH against RHP, we needed another bat against LHP. Duvall was unhappy with his role in Miami, and the Marlins were equally unhappy about paying him $2.6M to play mediocre OF defense and strike out 30% of the time. He's a one-trick pony with 65 power and should provide some balance within a high-contact Cubs lineup. Despite being 33, he'll be a free agent for the first time in the off-season and should be motivated to perform in Chicago. McKeon, 24, became expendable for us after the Jacob Amaya acquisition. He's a fast runner with decent defense at 2B and SS, but the bat likely relegates him to a fringe bench role in the absolute best-case scenario. He's well outside of the Marlins' top 30.

Up Next: 2022 40-man Preview

[JAF373]

March 3, 2022
Spring Training Day 1

40-Man Roster: 39/40

Catchers


-Barring injury, Casali will open as the back-up and Henry will report to Iowa for his first full AAA season. He's ready defensively, but the bat needs more time.

First Base


-Rizzo needs no introduction. Ford will open the season as the DH against RHP and could draw a sporadic start at 1B when Rizzo needs a breather. Baker will start in Iowa but would be up immediately with an injury to either of the starters.

Second Base


-Polanco is the starter and will ideally play just about an everyday role. We need him to regain some of his prior on-base ability with .320 a realistic target. Bote is only the roster because of his immovable long-term contract, but with a minor league option remaining, we could park him in Iowa again if he turns in a repeat performance from '21. Andrus remains an impediment to optimal roster construction, but we're deep enough on the infield that he won't get more than a rare start.

Third Base


-Duffy is on the bubble to open in the majors, but part of my rationale in bringing him back this season was his two remaining minor league options. Assuming we keep Bote and all five outfielders, Duffy would likely be squeezed out (at least to start the season). Santana will repeat AAA after posting a .449 SLG (18 HR) but a mind-boggling 102:9 K/BB rate. This is a carbon copy of the old Juan Francisco profile. Morel predictably struggled in an aggressive AA assignment last year. He'll get another shot this year and won't turn 23 until July, but because the prior regime added him to the 40-man roster so prematurely, he'll burn his second option this season and will have just one remaining heading into next year when he's unlikely to be ready for the bigs. Given the option predicament, he's a prime trade candidate.

Shortstop

-We desperately need a breakout year from Nico Hoerner, who was maddeningly mercurial last season but made some adjustments in September that offered a potential harbinger of promising things to come. The offensive bar for middle infielders remains low, so an OPS+ around 100 would be sufficient given his above-average glove and contact rates. Amaya has an advanced skillset at the plate and should be decent enough with the glove. He's the most recent addition to the 40-man as it seems inevitable that he'll be up at some point this season.

Outfielders


-Almost no roster uncertainty here as Rivas is damn close to a lock. His 137 OPS+ in 265 MLB plate appearances in August and September was a stunning development. Even the most optimistic Rivas advocate could not have predicted a .285/.380/.503 line. Barrera was arguably the best rookie in the NL last year and reprise his lead-off role against both LHP and RHP. I'm not sold that he'll hit .318 again, but the bat-to-ball skills are so advanced that he's unlikely to fall into prolonged slumps. We brought Duvall in to balance the lineup against LHP. He'll primarily DH but could draw an occasional start in one of the corners. Haniger needs to regain some of his prior plate discipline, but he'll hopefully be motivated by his impending free agency. Heyward remains among the five worst contracts in baseball and I fully expect another 65 OPS+ season.

Starting Pitchers

-Four of the five are set here with Paxton, Manaea, Hendricks, and Hernandez. Seabold and Schmidt are both candidates for the fifth spot, but we may end up piecing together bullpen games to start the season. As Spring Training begins, Seabold is a bit ahead of Schmidt. Steele put together an under-the-radar season at AAA (3.2 WAR, 9.4K/9), but his pedigree is well behind Seabold and Clarke. The issue is that he's out of options and might not get through waivers. Marquez is the second-best pitcher in the system and top 70-ish overall, but he's increasingly looking destined for the bullpen. With 45 stamina and 40 control, I'm skeptical that he'll ever be able to work his way through big league lineups. He'll end up with some sort of role later this season, and long term, he could be an answer as a flame-throwing closer. For now, he'll anchor the rotation at Iowa after finishing third in the AA South Cy Young voting.

Relief Pitchers


-Knebel is the big-ticket acquisition at the back end of the bullpen and needs to repeat 2021's clean bill of health. Floro, Pena, Suter, and Damon Jones are the other new arrivals with Jones required to stay on the roster for a minimum of 90 days as a Rule 5 pick. Pena still has an option remaining despite his "advanced" age (31) and, like McHugh, is a versatile piece who could open or follow. Romano struggled as a high-leverage guy last year but should be much more comfortable working in middle relief this season. He's due for substantial positive regression (3.85 FIP, 5.70 ERA) after being victimized by a .380 BABIP and surreal strand rate (63.4%). We ended up bringing Chafin back, but he looks like a drastically-depleted pitcher after ending last season as a 50/55. With Jones and Suter around, we hopefully don't need to lean on him to handle lefties. Wick and Maples look like DFA candidates as out-of-options 40s bumped way down the pecking order with the arrival of the off-season acquisitions. Maples struck out 11.7 K/9 and a decent 4.43 FIP. We DFA'ed fellow RHP Jason Adam last week to open up a spot on the 40-man. Manuel Rodriguez was the AA South Reliever of the Year last season and wiped out hitters with a 0.96 ERA (2.29 FIP) and 50 strikeouts in 37 innings. The walks will likely remain a problem (4.8 BB/9), but he's in line to jump into the bigs as soon as one of the bullpen guys goes down.

2022 Out of Options
SP Justin Steele
RP Dillon Maples
RP Rowan Wick

[JAF373]

Projected Record: 69-93 (4th NL Central)

-With the DH now in the NL and less need for pinch-hit flexibility, we opted for 14 pitchers and 12 hitters. In what was presumed to be an either/or competition, we ended up sending down both David Bote and Matt Duffy.

-Bullpen roles aren't set in stone, but after quite a bit of tinkering, I'm optimistic about the current setup.

-In what was expected to be a close competition, Connor Seabold ran away from Clarke Schmidt for the fifth starter's spot, firing a 1.35 ERA over 20 innings with a 25:3 K/BB ratio.

-Of the three out-of-options pitchers, I opted to keep Justin Steele as the long man/spot starter. He was almost certainly going to be claimed if we DFA'ed him and he can eat up far more innings than either Wick or Maples.

-Along with Seabold, Brailyn Marquez was the star of the spring. He struck out 21 batters over 11 innings (six walks) with each appearance between 35 and 45 pitches. He'll continue working as a starter at Iowa, but the future is clearly as some sort of high-leverage, multi-inning weapon a la how the Brewers used to deploy Josh Hader.

Transactions:
04/01: Released LHP Andrew Chafin
-We took a big salary hit here ($2.2M) but he was clearly a shell of his prior self. Regrettable, but I wasn't going to continue tying up a roster spot.

04/01: Designated for Assignment RHP Rowan Wick
-Out of options, I assume Wick will end up clearing waivers and returning to the organization as decent bullpen depth in the upper minors.

04/03: Designated for Assignment RHP Dillon Maples
-He's a bit more likely than Wick to be claimed, but the lack of control (25) was too much to stomach.

[JAF373]

May 24, 2022

Well, not great, but certainly in better shape than at this time last year. As set forth in the stats section below, we've had breakout seasons from Mike Ford and Nico Hoerner and complete busts from Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco. And, a few days ago, we found a new home for disaffected Jason Heyward.







After a last place finish last season, the revamped bullpen is paying dividends. In a completely unforeseen development, Justin Steele is the team leader in FIP. He's pitched in some big spots and often goes multiple innings. James Paxton's FIP is two full runs lower than his ERA and portends success moving forward this season. He's running a completely unsustainable .380 BABIP, but the velocity (96-98) is back to pre-injury levels. Kyle Hendricks might be finished. Low-velocity arms across baseball (even those with good control) are getting shellacked. He's still owed $14M through next season, though we'll able to decline the team option in 2024. Connor Seabold was smoked in three of his five starts and is now back at Iowa. I'm sure he'll get another opportunity this season, but it's an unfortunate turn of events. His stuff is too flat and hittable right now. Clarke Schmidt replaced Seabold in the rotation last week and will get a long leash in his bid to establish a foothold. Damon Jones' surface numbers look fantastic, but he's on borrowed time with equivalent walk and strikeout rates.





Transactions:

04/30/22: Purchased the contract of OF Nick Martini
-We needed another outfielder when Alfonso Rivas went down with a month-long injury in late April. Martini posts consistently elite on-base numbers and passable corner outfield defense with zero power. With an option remaining, we were able to send him back to Iowa upon Rivas' return a few days ago.

05/19/22: Traded OF Jason Heyward, 3B Chris Morel, 1B Jared Young and RHP Peyton Remy to HOU for SS Grae Kessinger and RHP Tyler Ivey


-Just a bit to unpack here. Amidst his vocal trade demands, Heyward was still owed approximately $38M over this season and next season (approximately $6M already paid this season). After some wrangling, Houston agreed to eat 20% of the remaining deal (approximately $7.6M) and shipped us their 7th-best prospect, Tyler Ivey, and borderline top 30 guy Grae Kessinger. Of course, Houston is arguably the most barren system in baseball at the moment, and some of their guys in the mid-teens wouldn't crack the top 30 in a system like Detroit. Ivey is a fringe big league starter who pitched to a 4.99 FIP at AAA last year with a 10.6K/9 rate. He was much improved over seven starts this season prior to the trade and could factor into the big league spot starter/bulk inning mix later this season. Kessinger is "glove-only," but finished with a 1.1 WAR at AA last season and posted a .372 OBP. He was Houston's 2nd round pick in 2019 and fills an immediate need as the everyday shortstop at AA Tennessee.

The prospect headliner in the deal is Chris Morel, 22, who was our 9th-ranked prospect at the start of the season. The issue with Morel is that next year will be his final option year and he's nowhere near ready for the bigs. The prior regime erred in prematurely adding him to the 40-man roster, and with Arenado blocking him at third, I couldn't find a path to big league playing time for him next season. He's off to a decent start in his second go-round at Double A (91 OPS + this year; 80 OPS+ last year), but ultimately, his value to us was as a conduit to removing the some of the yoke of the Heyward contract.

Jared Young, 26, is a first base-only prospect who made the AA South ASG last season en route to a 2.8 WAR. He doesn't hit for enough power to clear the bar at first base (.112 ISO) and is unlikely to develop it at his advanced prospect age. The top of our organization is loaded at first base with Rizzo, Ford, Luken Baker, and (maybe) Christian Santana. Peyton Remy is organization filler and a minimum-rated player (20).