Why Max Scherzer so bad this year

[vpapa524]

In 2016 he was 20-7 with 2.96 ERA. Check out rating from scouting he was given at beginning of year. How do you explain this? Up to this point in season he is 4-11 with 7.05 ERA. Does anyone understand how this happens? Thought this game was realistic to actual game.

[slugga27]

Players have down years all the time…


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[NavalHistorian]

Originally Posted by vpapa524

In 2016 he was 20-7 with 2.96 ERA. Check out rating from scouting he was given at beginning of year. How do you explain this? Up to this point in season he is 4-11 with 7.05 ERA. Does anyone understand how this happens? Thought this game was realistic to actual game.

It is. That's why Scherzer's having a seemingly inexplicable poor year for your team in OOTP. Inexplicably bad weeks/months/seasons happen in MLB every year.

In Scherzer's case, he's 37. Statistically, Scherzer having a poor season is more likely than not. Back in the late 90s, an ESPN columnist did a study and found that from 1982-97, no pitcher age 35 and older finished a season in the top 5 in win share. (Definition of win shares: https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Win_Shares )

The fact that in real life Scherzer's 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA so far in 2022 illustrates that he's a HOF talent Historically most MLB pitchers just don't do what he's done since he turned 35. Between 1900-97 only 28 pitchers age 35 or older have finished a season in the top five in win shares. By the late 90s, 18 of those guys were either already in the Hall of Fame or were considered locks to get in. Another three had good shots to get in. By now, all 21 are probably in the HOF.

That's how special Max Scherzer is. I'm not a programmer or game developer, so I'm not sure if it's even technically possible to program video game in such a way where certain specific players do things that statistically they shouldn't be doing, while other players are programmed to end up with the stats that are in line with 100+ years of data from MLB games.

[MathBandit]

To add another data point, in my current Mets sim he pitched 220.2 Innings in 2022 with a 2.16 ERA, 292 Ks, 0.86 WHIP, and 7.8 WAR (led the NL in each of those categories).

[5-4-3]

Because he’s old?

[LansdowneSt]

MathBandit, is providing the context. It depends on your roll of the dice. You'd need to rerun that game with all the same settings 100 times and then look at it to have idea of what the distribution of the resulting outputs turned out to be. Here's the projections of Max for this year. Not nearly as bad as your sim and not as good as MathBandits'...

[vpapa524]

Originally Posted by NavalHistorian

It is. That's why Scherzer's having a seemingly inexplicable poor year for your team in OOTP. Inexplicably bad weeks/months/seasons happen in MLB every year.

In Scherzer's case, he's 37. Statistically, Scherzer having a poor season is more likely than not. Back in the late 90s, an ESPN columnist did a study and found that from 1982-97, no pitcher age 35 and older finished a season in the top 5 in win share. (Definition of win shares: https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Win_Shares )

The fact that in real life Scherzer's 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA so far in 2022 illustrates that he's a HOF talent Historically most MLB pitchers just don't do what he's done since he turned 35. Between 1900-97 only 28 pitchers age 35 or older have finished a season in the top five in win shares. By the late 90s, 18 of those guys were either already in the Hall of Fame or were considered locks to get in. Another three had good shots to get in. By now, all 21 are probably in the HOF.

That's how special Max Scherzer is. I'm not a programmer or game developer, so I'm not sure if it's even technically possible to program video game in such a way where certain specific players do things that statistically they shouldn't be doing, while other players are programmed to end up with the stats that are in line with 100+ years of data from MLB games.

I understand all that about his age. But if in real life he performed as he did, my question is why the simulation did not mirror his performance? I thought that is the purpose of this game.

[BaseballGOAT]

Originally Posted by vpapa524

In 2016 he was 20-7 with 2.96 ERA. Check out rating from scouting he was given at beginning of year. How do you explain this? Up to this point in season he is 4-11 with 7.05 ERA. Does anyone understand how this happens? Thought this game was realistic to actual game.

The aging curve in Ootp really doesn't allow for older players to be successful. You would have to edit the aging numbers and the talent random change to get the game to effectively model players like Max, Adam Wainwright, Nelson Cruz and etc

[Raniel3]

Originally Posted by vpapa524

I understand all that about his age. But if in real life he performed as he did, my question is why the simulation did not mirror his performance? I thought that is the purpose of this game.

I think you do not understand what a simulation is. Or what statistics are. Do you really expect the game to do exactly the same things as in real life? Like the same results?

[Ron2112]

Originally Posted by Raniel3

I think you do not understand what a simulation is. Or what statistics are. Do you really expect the game to do exactly the same things as in real life? Like the same results?

On a single run, a simulation may or may not duplicate the real-life thing/system it is modelling. BUT, after many simulation runs, the model should start to converge on something close to real life, if it's a good model, and is seeded with the proper performance assumptions.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Ron2112

On a single run, a simulation may or may not duplicate the real-life thing/system it is modelling. BUT, after many simulation runs, the model should start to converge on something close to real life, if it's a good model, and is seeded with the proper performance assumptions.

Also worth noting (and something I've seen echoed in other threads) that 2021 performance is not the same as projected 2022 performance.

Old players who were good in 2021 will likely not be as good in 2022.

[ryanivr]

Originally Posted by vpapa524

In 2016 he was 20-7 with 2.96 ERA. Check out rating from scouting he was given at beginning of year. How do you explain this? Up to this point in season he is 4-11 with 7.05 ERA. Does anyone understand how this happens? Thought this game was realistic to actual game.

Just to clarify, are you running a 2022 sim, or are you running a 2016 sim?

[locuspc]

He had a 2.98 ERA for me in 2022, not one of the top pitchers but well above average. I think that's fair, players are expected to decline as they get older and he's still going relatively strong. It seems like you got the bad end of some random variance.

There are differing philosophies of simulation. Some people would argue that the simulation should try to keep as close to the median outcome as possible, and not add variance that could keep the results away from the most likely result. Others would say that part of what's being simulated is the impacts of variance, and if you don't include realistic variance, the probabilities of everything will be all wrong. If you sim 1000 times, there should be sims where Scherzer has a bad year. You can't say the probability he has a bad year is 0. He's getting older.

[itsmb8]

You also have to take into account that aging in the game is 100% a thing, and is always happening vs only being calculated in the offseason. Im not sure of thats something the projections calculate.

So if you were to turn off aging and injuries and run 100 sims, you would most likely get stats that are completely in line with Max's projections. But with those on, they will both affect him more because he is older and the stats from the 100 sims will likely be a bit higher.

[tward13]

The WAR info in the earlier post ends at 1997. If you continued another 20 years or so you'd find a lot more successful older pitchers.

It's tough for a sim to work for certain type players. Old guys who are still successful. Players who change positions and do extraordinary things. I think the two that have had the most trouble in various sims I've run over the years are Pete Rose and Nolan Ryan.

[Lukas Berger]

There are some things about aging related to players who are already older in the 2022 MLB quickstart we're taking a closer look at, and we will probably make some tweaks here so that guys like Scherzer, Verlander etc don't fall off quite so quickly so often.

[cubsin5ive]

Lukas, I think that is a good call. Max has regressed substantially in June of my 2022 campaign in PT23. Of course, it's quite possible that a similar regression will happen in his IRL season—and if not in 2022, then '23 or '24. But there is obviously a reason that Steve Cohen felt comfortable paying Max $42m AAV, and it's not just because he has hedge fund blood money and a huge crush. Some players are built to last.

[vpapa524]

Originally Posted by ryanivr

Just to clarify, are you running a 2022 sim, or are you running a 2016 sim?

I started in 2014 and moved the Yankees forward from then. Acquired him via free agency. I love the game. Don't get me wrong. Was just curious why in this case his performance seemed to be way off. No big deal. Was just wondering if others had similar experience

[vpapa524]

Originally Posted by Raniel3

I think you do not understand what a simulation is. Or what statistics are. Do you really expect the game to do exactly the same things as in real life? Like the same results?

That is funny to think that of when you have no clue about my knowledge whatsoever.

[ayaghmour2]

Originally Posted by vpapa524

I started in 2014 and moved the Yankees forward from then. Acquired him via free agency. I love the game. Don't get me wrong. Was just curious why in this case his performance seemed to be way off. No big deal. Was just wondering if others had similar experience

Well there's your answer. If you started in 2014, and now it is 2016, that is two full seasons of OOTP randomness. His performance could be accounted for aging, a talent drop, injury, etc. Plus it could just be bad luck. Regardless, unless you have auto calculate turned on, there will be a lot of variation in your sim results and real life. You can't expect a Max Scherzer created in 2014 with two years of gameplay to mimic the real life 2016 Scherzer.