Did Freeman's 2nd walk off WS HR send him to Cooperstown?

[Cobra Mgr]

I try not to be a prisoner of the moment. So I wanted to give myself some time to think on it. One of the ?'s I ask myself when it comes to the HOF in baseball & basketball (not football) is "if I was a historian and was seeking to catalog what happened in the sport during a player's time in the league, is it possible that I could accurately & reasonably recall it w/o mentioning that player's play on the field?".
I don't think we can retell this era of baseball & not include Freeman. Then add his numbers.

For me, that HR put him in.

What do you think?

[Amazin69]

He'd be a 50-50 case right now, IMO. Obviously, he's not retiring right now (half a season away from 2500 hits), but I don't know if projecting the future qualifies as "already in". Still close enough, I suppose.

In any event, I'm reluctant to give too much weight to one incident (in Game 3 of the Series), when the Hall's rules are specifically against it. Don Larsen isn't in the Hall. Mazeroski isn't in the Hall for his one HR; it was a career of exceptional defense that made the case. JMO.

(If we're making plaques for Game 3 Heroics, where's Tommie Agee's?)

[Westheim]

I selected "he's already in", but I used some projection. He looks like he'll be pretty good for another 2-3 years, at which point he should have 2,800+ hits, 400+ homers, 600+ doubles (he's the active leader in that category), and just that one Gold Glove, but he also had the misfortunate of going up against Rizzo and Goldschmidt all the time before they in succession got Yankeed into the AL. He's just a few spots behind Bryce Harper in the career OPS table (and well inside the top 100), and I don't think anybody doubts that Harper will make the Hall.

And I know they don't make plaques for being a good neighbor either, but Freeman has always appeared to me like a genuinely good guy. He did the most unspeakable things to the Metsies for over a decade, and I still can't hate him.

I *did* hate Bryce Harper, but with age and mellowing I am closing in on begrudging acceptance of his greatness...

[low]

Already in for me.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by Amazin69

In any event, I'm reluctant to give too much weight to one incident (in Game 3 of the Series), when the Hall's rules are specifically against it. Don Larsen isn't in the Hall. Mazeroski isn't in the Hall for his one HR; it was a career of exceptional defense that made the case. JMO.

He wouldn't be in for one thing. Again, TWICE hitting walk offs in WS is the highlight. But he has an MVP, Series MVP, multiple all star games, 2 rings. I looked it up and he also has won the Hank Aaron award & a Gold Glove. Currently 69 hits from 2500, 33 HR from 400, 178 short of 1500 RBI & a .300 career BA & .897 OPS.

The numbers are borderline. The awards are stacked. And the moments are unique.

So if he were to go in tomorrow, it would be for more than just one thing.

[Amazin69]

Right, which means he could have retired before the Series and been just as qualified.

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by Amazin69

Right, which means he could have retired before the Series and been just as qualified.

No. Not for me anyway. Because the moments wouldn't have been exclusive to him. There have been a number of walk off HR's in the WS. Monday, he became the 1st to do it twice. Now it becomes exclusive. That puts him over the top for me. I wouldn't go into a debate with anyone that thought he was HOF worthy before Monday night. But as you say, before then it was 50-50 for me. And 50-50 isn't HOF to me.

[Amazin69]

No, 50-50 is a judgment call. There are dozens of HoFers that people debate.

And if he'd struck out and gone on to play the next few seasons, he'd be far beyond any debate. So he hit two walk-offs in two Series…so what? Frank Isbell had four doubles in Game 5 of the 1906 Series. And?

Fabulous Freddie is in the final third of a HoF career. Trying to claim that one particular game is the demarcation point seems…unnecessarily precise, IMO.

(What happens if the Dodgers lose the Series?)

[Cobra Mgr]

Originally Posted by Amazin69

No, 50-50 is a judgment call. There are dozens of HoFers that people debate.

And if he'd struck out and gone on to play the next few seasons, he'd be far beyond any debate. So he hit two walk-offs in two Series…so what? Frank Isbell had four doubles in Game 5 of the 1906 Series. And?

Fabulous Freddie is in the final third of a HoF career. Trying to claim that one particular game is the demarcation point seems…unnecessarily precise, IMO.

(What happens if the Dodgers lose the Series?)

Ok. so then for you, Mon's HR did nothing to sway your opinion. And that's fine. I want your, and everyone else's, opinion.

I'm saying it did affect my opinion. I'm not saying it couldn't have potentially been swayed to the same conclusion by some other factor(s) in the future. But for me, Monday morning, he was 50-50. Still work to do for me to say yes. But I wouldn't roll my eyes at the notion like I would, say, Joe Mauer. Tuesday AM, now that he added to the resume, he's in w/o reservations from me. The HR didn't make him a HOF. The HR w/everything else made him a HOF. The gift is wrapped. Now its a matter of adding accessories.

[Westheim]

In general I don't think that one single game should make or break the case for the Hall of Fame.

...lest we'd have to discuss Scooter Gennett's HOF case...

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by Westheim

In general I don't think that one single game should make or break the case for the Hall of Fame.

...lest we'd have to discuss Scooter Gennett's HOF case...

Rick Wise, Fernando Tatis Jr., and dozens of other dudes can be mentioned.

Freeman has an .897 OPS. There are a LOT of dudes with a higher one. Right now, Jimmy Edmonds has a .904, and a double handful of Gold Gloves.

One has a WAR of 63.6, the other is 52.5. I know WAR isn't perfect, but it is as useful as most other stats. (Freeman gets murdered by his crap defense of -12 dWAR).

[Amazin69]

Edmonds has a decent case and it's a shame that he was one-and-done'd by the writers; he deserved better.

OTOH…

Freddie has led his league in Runs 3 times, Hits 2 times, Doubles 4 times and OBP once. His "black ink" (League Leader points) total 25, 99th in history. The average HoF batter has 27 Black Ink

Jimmy never led his league in any batting stat. Big fat zero for the black ink, He's tied with me on the all-time list.

Freddie has 182 points of "gray ink" (awarded for finishing in the top 10 in your league), 66th of all time. This puts him well above the HoF average of 144 pts.

Jimmy has 66 points of gray ink, 551st of all time. He hasn't reached even 50% of the HoF average.

Bill James created the Hall of Fame Monitor, tracking both single-season achievements and career totals to project how likely a player is to be elected, given the Hall's past voting. 100 points is a player with good chance to be inducted; 130 points is a virtual cinch.

Freddie has 128 points on the Monitor. Jimmy has 89.

Freddie won an MVP and a World Series MVP in the same season. Jimmy came 4th in one MVP vote and 5th in another.

Freddie also came 3rd in an MVP race, 4th in two others, 5th once, and 6th once. All in all, he's received MVP votes in 10 different seasons (and we'll see what happens this season) and been selected for 9 All-Star teams.

Jimmy only placed in the MVP top ten those two times and received votes in 6 seasons. He was selected to 4 All-Star teams.

Jim did get 6 Gold Gloves to Fred's 1 (dWAR aside, Freeman has led the league in POs 3 times, DPs 4 times, and Assists once)…but Freddie has won 3 Silver Slugger awards to Jimmy's 1.

And, as Westheim noted above, Freeman is about to cross several major counting thresholds.

Edmonds is a decent HoF candidate…but IMO Freeman is clearly ahead of him, and widening the gap.

[monkeyman576]

My ranking of the top 30 active players in order of liklihood to be inducted into the hall of fame:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Aaron Judge
3. Mike Trout
4. Justin Verlander
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Max Scherzer
7. Julio Rodriguez
8. Elly De La Cruz
9. Juan Soto
10. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
11. Paul Skenes
12. Freddie Freeman
13. Terik Skubal
14. Cal Raliegh
15. Mookie Betts
16. Kenley Jensen
17. Kyle Schwarber
18. Manny Machado
19. Max Fried
20. Christain Yelich
21. Paul Goldschmidt
22. Trea Turner
23. Nick Kurtz
24. Logan Gilbert
25. Craig Kimbrel
26. Gunnar Henderson
27. Bryce Harper
28. Emmanuel Clase
29. Chris Sale
30. Francisco Lindor

[dsvitak]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

My ranking of the top 30 active players in order of liklihood to be inducted into the hall of fame:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Aaron Judge
3. Mike Trout
4. Justin Verlander
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Max Scherzer
7. Julio Rodriguez
8. Elly De La Cruz
9. Juan Soto
10. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
11. Paul Skenes
12. Freddie Freeman
13. Terik Skubal
14. Cal Raliegh
15. Mookie Betts
16. Kenley Jensen
17. Kyle Schwarber
18. Manny Machado
19. Max Fried
20. Christain Yelich
21. Paul Goldschmidt
22. Trea Turner
23. Nick Kurtz
24. Logan Gilbert
25. Craig Kimbrel
26. Gunnar Henderson
27. Bryce Harper
28. Emmanuel Clase
29. Chris Sale
30. Francisco Lindor

Yeouch. Schwarber has barely a thousand hits, and a lifetime batting average of .231. And he's already 32.

[monkeyman576]

Yeah he could be lower.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by dsvitak

Yeouch. Schwarber has barely a thousand hits, and a lifetime batting average of .231. And he's already 32.

I am more concerned about #8, who so far has led the league in strikeouts once.

[Déjà Bru]

monkeyman, if even just a third of this list gets into the Hall of Fame, it just highlights what a revolving door that "honor" has become. It's more of a social club and partying excuse than a pantheon of baseball greats now.

[Amazin69]

Originally Posted by monkeyman576

My ranking of the top 30 active players in order of liklihood to be inducted into the hall of fame:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Aaron Judge
3. Mike Trout
4. Justin Verlander
5. Clayton Kershaw
6. Max Scherzer

23. Nick Kurtz
24. Logan Gilbert
25. Craig Kimbrel
26. Gunnar Henderson
27. Bryce Harper
28. Emmanuel Clase
29. Chris Sale
30. Francisco Lindor

I grant you that Bill Harper's grandbaby has never won a ring, and that in his younger days he was such an obnoxious dickwad that I was on Papelbon's side…

…and I grant you that his black and grey ink are surprisingly lacking since the vast majority of his ink came in his two MVP seasons…

…but he's above Edmonds on the Monitor already (Bryce has 93 points; 100 is "decent chance" territory), he's most likely going to reach 2000 hits and 500 HRs, and I can't think, off-hand, of any eligible player who has 2 MVPs (and a ROY, to boot) who hasn't been selected…

So, I'm a touch surprised to see him four spaces behind a rookie on a bad team who has hardly any resume and who is, at the moment, best known for a "4 HR" game that deserves an asterisk the size of Cuddle-Buns Cal Raleigh's Caressable Cheeks. I mean, the Anthony Rendon 6-6 3HR game was IMO more impressive, and he hit one of those off of Kevin Plawecki, who might claim he deserved part of two CYAs, but still.

JMO.

[Westheim]

Originally Posted by Amazin69

I grant you that Bill Harper's grandbaby has never won a ring, and that in his younger days he was such an obnoxious dickwad that I was on Papelbon's side…

Same

Originally Posted by Amazin69

…but he's above Edmonds on the Monitor already (Bryce has 93 points; 100 is "decent chance" territory), he's most likely going to reach 2000 hits and 500 HRs, and I can't think, off-hand, of any eligible player who has 2 MVPs (and a ROY, to boot) who hasn't been selected…

Wikipedia has a list of all the award winners.

Multiple winners that have not been inducted and have been eligible:

Barry Bonds (7)
Alex Rodriguez (3)
Juan Gonzalez (2)
Roger Maris (2)
Dale Murphy (2)

For completeness' sake, multiple winners that are NOT eligible yet / still active:

Shohei Ohtani (3)
Albert Pujols (3)
Mike Trout (3)
Miguel Cabrera (2)
Bryce Harper (2)
Aaron Judge (2)

[monkeyman576]

There's a real chance harper could not get in. I doubt Kurtz will be on the As his whole career.