Which SP Would You Start Game 1?

[kq76]

Here's the scenario: the opposition has 1 superstar/ace SP (Onuma) and 3 guys of good to decent quality. We don't have a superstar, but we do have 4 very good SPs (solid #2s/3s you might say). We also have a better bullpen (theirs is above average, but ours is the best in the league), even with our closer out for the year.

Now here's what I'm thinking. It's a 7-game series and, knowing my team, we probably won't do well against their ace. Even though we have a very good offense (both teams do), I've just seen us get shut down by aces too many times this season. We might be able to get to him, but we can't count on it.

So, what if we start our #4 starter against their #1 and start our other 3 against their non-aces? It would definitely increase our chances to win the games their ace doesn't start, but I also think it doesn't kill our chances to win the games their ace does start. I'm not even sure it really lessens our chances in game 1.

You see, while our #4 SP (H. Ogawa) is young and his win-loss record and ERA are terrible (both of which I largely ignore), his K-BB% and SIERA are very good, the best of our rotation actually. The only thing he kind of sucks at is HR%. As a result he'll often have good stretches of innings, but then he'll just have 1 bad inning and that too often does him in. But what if I pull him at the very first sign of trouble? That could very well be too late considering their ace, but it might not be. With our guy you'll never know if he'll have the bad inning in the 1st or 7th (he's our most inconsistent/volatile SP by far, his QS% is only .278). But like I said, we do have a very good and rested bullpen. We could easily bring in another capable pitcher, even one who could go several innings if need be (Sakamoto is usually a SP, not a CL). And I figure if you're going to risk going to your bullpen early in a game, it's better to do it early in the series when everyone is rested, than late when you might not have any good options. If he's on, I think he could even pitch 5 or 6 shutout innings. He probably won't of course, but he has had a few games where he's pitched extraordinarily well.

So what do you think? It's risky, I know. I usually think you should start your best guys first (I'm a big believer in grabbing the lead first and forcing the opposition to play from behind as people often mistakes or play sub-optimally while doing that), but considering they're so top-heavy, I'm thinking maybe we shouldn't this time. Starting one of our other three SPs first might increase our chances of winning game 1 (and maybe 4 and 7), but I like the odds of increasing our chances of winning the other games even more. If we lose all 3 games against their ace, however, you have to think we won't win all 4 of the other games. Chances are something won't go to plan.

[jksander]

I'd go with a three man rotation, and move your #2 guy up to be your ace, but playoff series are a crapshoot much of the time ... their ace looks absolutely ridiculous, but then again so does your stopper (243.1 innings and only four saves? How many wins did HE get?)

[kq76]

Originally Posted by jksander

I'd go with a three man rotation, and move your #2 guy up to be your ace, but playoff series are a crapshoot much of the time ... their ace looks absolutely ridiculous, but then again so does your stopper (243.1 innings and only four saves? How many wins did HE get?)

That's a good point about the 3-man. I should consider it. If I went with that there'd be 3 days between each start. I usually like to see 4 or 5 days between starts.

I'll give it a few days to think about it.

Originally Posted by jksander

I'd go with a three man rotation, and move your #2 guy up to be your ace, but playoff series are a crapshoot much of the time ... their ace looks absolutely ridiculous, but then again so does your stopper (243.1 innings and only four saves? How many wins did HE get?)

He's not really our stopper, he's usually a SP (the AI setup the bullpen and since I manage my bullpen in game it doesn't really matter who is listed in what role). He was a trade deadline acquisition who, considering his ratings, has disappointed me. He got most of those IP with his previous team and while he's pitched decently for us, I don't think he's as good as the other 4.

I think it's probably a bit difficult to judge our rotation from the stats. Kageyama, who's probably our #1, was out much of the year and just got back. Suzuki is our most consistent and often goes deep into games, but I swear he has the worst luck. ****oshi Ogawa was a FA depth acquisition, but he was out with a long-term injury at the time and has only come back recently. He's by far the oldest at 39 and his ratings aren't great, but he's pitched great for us. The aforementioned Hideyoshi Ogawa was a draft pick last year and has put up great #s, but he is again very volatile. Then we have 2 LHPs, but Oshima is out for the year, and Ilda, who is a bit like Hideyoshi in that he's young and volatile, is cold so I've put him in the bullpen. Even Naito, who was another FA, can start, but he's also disappointed me as a SP so he's a last resort.

If there's one thing this team really needs, it's a shutdown ace like Setagaya has in Onuma. I like our depth a lot as it doesn't matter which SP we may lose to injury we'll probably get through it, but it's still so important in the playoffs to have that guy who can win you a game pretty much on his own.