How is it...

[WhiskyTango]

What kind of at bat does this guy typically have? He is unlikely to walk but more likely to K. Doesn't the good eye mean he picks over pitches and waits for his (at least IRL)? How else do you interpret this? If he's selective how come he strikes out so much? He should be more likely to get a piece of the ball, at least.

[Bobfather]

To me, it means he doesn't swing at pitches outside the zone. See Rafeal Devers' first few games of this season. Struck out at a record pace, but on pitches in the zone.

[kidd_05_u2]

Google "three-true-outcomes players".

[venflaalachi]

You can have a good eye and still strike out a lot, like kidd 05 u2 said, that's basically three true outcome players. High power, high walks, high strikeouts.

A guy like this probably has a lot of 2 strike counts, which is going to lead to more strikeouts.

[WhiskyTango]

Very interesting. TTO is a "delicate balance" that tends not to last long.

As of 1934, these are my TTO leaders, with TTO expressed as

EYE POTENTIAL >= 4
K's POTENTIAL < 3
POWER POTENTIAL >= 4

So this seems to be a fairly rare find !

[smitty51]

Originally Posted by WhiskyTango

What kind of at bat does this guy typically have? He is unlikely to walk but more likely to K. Doesn't the good eye mean he picks over pitches and waits for his (at least IRL)? How else do you interpret this? If he's selective how come he strikes out so much? He should be more likely to get a piece of the ball, at least.

What is that BNN in the top right corner, and how do i get it?, the games being shown looks clean

[WhiskyTango]

Still, my OP goes unanswered as I was trying to picture the typical AB.

Some thoughts on TTO:
I understand high HR with high K rates so the oddity is the high BB rate. So what needs to break for BBs to become outs? For one thing, TTOs must get reputations fairly quick. But since breaking balls typically end up outside the strike zone... they must have a good eye to pick up on anything breaking. They get beat by speed and change of speed, laying off pitches outside of their zone, and breaking balls which wind up over the plate? I'd say - HR hitters hang on their pitch. So those are 2 quick strikes, across the plate but outside of hitter's wheelhouse. Must have higher foul ball rates, to work it back to a 3-2 count?

[Rain King]

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[Rain King]

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[WhiskyTango]

That's almost an example in the other direction.

So, obviously eye and protecting the plate. That's what separates the high K/high HR guys from TTOs - TTOs basically protect the plate better and perhaps are better at picking up any spin leaving the pitcher's hand. Yet the articles linked above indicated TTOs are fleeting, they tend to not last long. So the next question is how do pitchers adapt? I assume the TTO disappears by not maintaining high BB rates. If so, their K rates increase?

[WhiskyTango]

Originally Posted by Rain King

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Aren't others reading it too?

[WhiskyTango]

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[fuzzy_patters]

Originally Posted by WhiskyTango

What kind of at bat does this guy typically have? He is unlikely to walk but more likely to K. Doesn't the good eye mean he picks over pitches and waits for his (at least IRL)? How else do you interpret this? If he's selective how come he strikes out so much? He should be more likely to get a piece of the ball, at least.

I assume a modern day example would be Joey Gallo. In 2021 he hit .199 with 38 homers while leading the league in walks and strikeouts. Basically, he only had certain pitches he could hit, so he didn’t swing at anything else. When he got his pitch, he swung as hard as he could. Sometime he hit it and sometimes he missed it. Since he was a power threat, pitchers tried to stay away from his hot zones, so sometimes they missed and walked him. Sometimes they successfully hit the corners and struck him out.

[WhiskyTango]

Originally Posted by fuzzy_patters

I assume a modern day example would be Joey Gallo. In 2021 he hit .199 with 38 homers while leading the league in walks and strikeouts. Basically, he only had certain pitches he could hit, so he didn’t swing at anything else. When he got his pitch, he swung as hard as he could. Sometime he hit it and sometimes he missed it. Since he was a power threat, pitchers tried to stay away from his hot zones, so sometimes they missed and walked him. Sometimes they successfully hit the corners and struck him out.

Wow, that's amazing. Never thought I'd see a line like that (or a career). Looks like teams aren't sure what to make of him, looking for him to repeat 2021 I guess.

[WhiskyTango]

Stathead lists the 4 players who have posts 100+ walks with 200+ K the same season.

Rk	Player	        HR	  BB	SO	Season	Age	TeamLg	G	PA	AB	R	H     1B	2B  3B   HR    RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GIDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos
1	Aaron Judge	52	127	208	2017	25	NYY	AL	155	678	542	128	154	75	24	3	52	114	9	4	127	208	.284	.422	.627	1.049	171	340	15	5	0	4	11	*9D/H
2	Kyle Schwarber47	126	215	2023	30	PHI	NL	160	720	585	108	115	48	19	1	47	104	0	2	126	215	.197	.343	.474	.817	121	277	4	6	0	3	5	7D
3	Adam Dunn	41	105	222	2012	32	CHWAL	151	649	539	87	110	50	19	0	41	96	2	1	105	222	.204	.333	.468	.800	114	252	8	1	0	4	3	D3/7H
4	Joey Gallo	38	111	213	2021	27	NYTXAL	153	616	498	90	99	47	13	1	38	77	6	0	111	213	.199	.351	.458	.808	121	228	6	6	0	1	5	*97D/H

https://stathead.com/tiny/1T6xI?&utm...NzUzOS4wLjAuMA..

[jeffw3000]

Originally Posted by WhiskyTango

What kind of at bat does this guy typically have? He is unlikely to walk but more likely to K. Doesn't the good eye mean he picks over pitches and waits for his (at least IRL)? How else do you interpret this? If he's selective how come he strikes out so much? He should be more likely to get a piece of the ball, at least.

The perfect example would be Adam Dunn. Led league in Walks and strikeouts in same season, and also hit 41 HRs in same season. Led league in walks twice and strikeouts 4 times in his career, and also hit 40 or more Home Runs 6 times. He had 462 career Home Runs, 1317 career walks and 2379 strikeouts. He is in the top 50 All-time in all 3 categories, and is 3rd in strikeouts.

[Brad K]

The harm Dave Kingman wrought.

[Syd Thrift]

Kingman rather famously didn’t walk though.

A better historical-ish 3TO guy would be Rob Deer, who was basically Joey Gallo before Joey Gallo. Or Mickey Tettleton, at least for a few seasons.

I think there was a larger question of what a guy with these numbers looked like on the field. Dolph Camilli is a tough one but for guys like Deer and Tettleton, they were guys who tended to follow the Earl Weaver philosophy of looking only for your pitch, let’s say a fastball high in the zone, and not swinging at anything else. Their raw power kept pitchers from throwing a ton of obvious strikes and IIRC Deer had big issues with pitches that looked like bad fastballs in his [art of the plate - sliders for example - but then darted away.

[WhiskyTango]

Originally Posted by Syd Thrift

...they were guys who tended to follow the Earl Weaver philosophy of looking only for your pitch, let’s say a fastball high in the zone, and not swinging at anything else.

I tended to believe that's what all batters do, or ought to do. You can tell when one doesn't because he stops hitting and then it becomes about just not getting beat, so he swings at whatever looks like strikes. Iow batters who swing at good-looking strikes tend to do poorly. The pitcher/batter showdown is so unique and variable one can spend the entire game just analyzing that.

If a batter can pick up most pitches and protect against most there might be _one_ pitch that always beats him, ie Deer. Then a pitcher has to be able to throw that one pitch well enough for a strike and if he does it's a K and if he doesn't, a BB or HR. This scenario would account for TTO appearing briefly in a season. Since the TTO is a power threat opposing managers might take a while to figure out who can throw that pitch effectively. Once they do, goodbye high BB rate.