How to deal with players' stolen base success rate

[drowtfs]

So, I'm sure this is a common problem with speedy players...
I have this right-fielder, I just signed him after he completed 6 years of service with another club. His rookie and sophomore year were great, batting .322 and .311 while going 74-28 82-26 in stolen base attempts and he even won RoY. Then he deteriorated considerably, hitting .279 .236 .264 and .265 until becoming a free agent. I signed him to a deal for $9m over 3 years and now he's had a big breakout sort of season with career highs in batting average, base hits, doubles, walks and OBP. He's turned into a good leadoff hitter, but I'm afraid he's not really that good. That's because in this first season with us, he went 44-30 in stolen base attempts. If you discount the base hits that he threw away by getting caught stealing, his AVG goes down from .331 to .277 and his OBP down from .404 to like .356 or something... that's no longer a real leadoff's OBP. Adjusting his OPS to reflect the extra bases he gets for the steals and the ones he loses when he gets caught, his OPS goes down from .866 to .845
That means that for all his 44 stolen bases, all he does in the end is lower his OPS by 21 points. That's stupid.

My question is, what do you think about that? Do you think this is sound? Do you think the momentous value of stolen bases alone is more important than how his thieving habit ultimately affects his OPS? How do you think I may affect his performance so as to help him not get caught so often, what type of player strategy could I try on him? This is all making me seriously lean towards taking advantage of his comeback year to capitalize via trade, but if his stolen base success rate could be restored to his earlier levels, he would be an awesome leadoff hitter. His stolen base success rates, year-by-year, have been 74-28, 82-26, 60-19, 9-11 (in 212 at-bats), 44-25, 24-17 and now 44-30... so this is one area of his latest shortcomings that has continued, in spite of all his other career highs. Why would this be? His baserunning stats are Running Speed 90 Stealing 83, Baserunning 65, so I would think it's his baserunning instincts that tend to get him caught. I don't know...
Any thoughts or experience you may relate to this case?

[Malleus Dei]

Go to player strategy and dial his SB's down to the minimum.

[kq76]

MD's right.

Are you familiar with run expectancy and break-even SB%? If not, you might want to read up on it a bit. Note that the BE point does depend on the run environment though so it's not always 75 or 67 or whatever. What you're doing with your math doesn't really work, especially if you're only looking at the minus of the CS without the plus of the SB.

[conception]

The guy could certainly be hurting more than helping. On my team, though, I usually give players a pretty steady green light, and usually look for speed as a secondary skill. I know just from playing out a lot of games that getting that runner in scoring position often will lead to a lot more runs scored that wouldn't have otherwise. How many runs could have scored that didn't because of a CS is much harder to determine.

[drowtfs]

Originally Posted by kq76

Note that the BE point does depend on the run environment though so it's not always 75 or 67 or whatever.

Well, after looking at a lot of info, including our league average runs per game and HRs hit per game and my own team's stats and some individual game logs, I'm convinced that he does a lot more damage with his CS than he can make up for with his SB. If he just stays on base and just runs aggressively, but without trying to steal all the time, he will be a far better leadoff.
But I will attempt to shop him this offseason, because I have players with potentially better leadoff skills coming up from the minors in less than a year and this guy's value is probably at its peak now.

I guess stealing at around the 75-80% success rate was a skill he left behind in his 20s, and it's never coming back.

[kq76]

At 60% I imagine he probably is doing more harm than good. I don't bother to do the math, but I'm happy when my guys hit 70%. Your guy could just be having a bad year though. My leadoff guy two years ago had an off year then last year he had a good one and was instrumental in our championship run so I'm glad I didn't just give him the red light after that one bad year. I'd base my decision more off of the guy's stealing and speed ratings than his stats for one year.

[Killing Time]

Excerpted from The Value of the Stolen Base: A Comparison of MLB and NCAA Division I Baseball, by Mike Current and Chad McEvoy

'Over the years there has been a great deal of debate amongst baseball insiders and fans over the value of the stolen base. Some, such as longtime Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver, have argued that the stolen base is rarely worth the risk. Others, however, view the stolen base as a valuable means of applying pressure to the opposing team's defense. The question is: Which side is right?

Most past research on the stolen base seems to side with Weaver. Using data from Major League Baseball, researchers have found that stealing at less than a 75% success rate is detrimental to success. Joe Sheehan explains in Baseball Prospectus Basics: Stolen Bases and How to Use Them that when considering stolen bases, one must consider both the cost and the benefit. Therefore, the break-even point for successful base-stealing is so high because outs are more valuable than bases in nearly every instance. For example, the Run Expectancy Matrix created by Baseball Prospectus reveals that a runner on first base with no one out is worth approximately 0.864 runs. A successful steal of second base would raise that figure to 1.173. However, a failed stolen base attempt drops that number to 0.270. In this example, the loss is nearly two times the gain.'

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...alue_of_th.php

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=2607

[Timeless]

Ideally you could "spot" their SBs, by setting them only to run (or run more often) when a catcher's arm is less than a certain #.

But yeah, generally you've got to be 2 out of 3 at least to get an aggregate benefit. Then again, baseball games aren't played in the aggregate. If you go 0-5 in SBs in games you're leading by 4+ after 7 innings, who cares? If you're swiping 4 out of every 5 in the first inning of 0-0 games, then you're doing great. So the overall #'s may look bad, but you might just want to see where the CS's are happening (and where the SB's are succeeding) and try to adjust the situational running to get a better overall success rate. The important thing is being able to get them when they count.

[ike121212]

IMO, there's a significant problem in this game when it comes to SB's. Many players rate high in stealing, but only medium in speed. These players steal at a very low %. The game has no way of replicating players who don't steal often, but do so at a high success rate. It fails miserably in it's attempt.

High Speed, High Steal = fine
High Speed, Low Steal = fine
Low Speed, Low Steal = fine
Low Speed, High Steal = train wreck

I've resorted to fixing them before they get drafted.

[Childress]

You wonder how OOTP could do justice to a player like Mickey Mantle. This was a player with a lifetime SB rate of 85% and ran the fastest recorded time from home to 1st of his time: 3.1 seconds. But (IIRC) he never stole more than 20 bases or so a season; Mantle's bat was too important and his managers were reluctant to risk his fragile knees. Does the game incorporate a higher risk of injury in SBAs?

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by ike121212

IMO, there's a significant problem in this game when it comes to SB's. Many players rate high in stealing, but only medium in speed. These players steal at a very low %. The game has no way of replicating players who don't steal often, but do so at a high success rate. It fails miserably in it's attempt.

High Speed, High Steal = fine
High Speed, Low Steal = fine
Low Speed, Low Steal = fine
Low Speed, High Steal = train wreck

I've resorted to fixing them before they get drafted.

I think this is wrong...unless Markus changed something drastic in X, which would be unlike him. Steal is correlated to SB success rate, Speed to the number of times the runner gets a jump. So a high speed, low steals rating combination would be the train wreck.

A player who didn't steal often, yet was successful often would be modeled as a low speed, high steal ratings kind of guy. You can find them in OOTP, and they perform just like that--few attempts, high success rate.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Childress

You wonder how OOTP could do justice to a player like Mickey Mantle. This was a player with a lifetime SB rate of 85% and ran the fastest recorded time from home to 1st of his time: 3.1 seconds. But (IIRC) he never stole more than 20 bases or so a season; Mantle's bat was too important and his managers were reluctant to risk his fragile knees. Does the game incorporate a higher risk of injury in SBAs?

OOTP included an opportunity for injury during steals, so, yes, a guy who steals a lot will be more likely to get injured than one who doesn't.

[ike121212]

Originally Posted by RonCo

I think this is wrong...unless Markus changed something drastic in X, which would be unlike him. Steal is correlated to SB success rate, Speed to the number of times the runner gets a jump. So a high speed, low steals rating combination would be the train wreck.

A player who didn't steal often, yet was successful often would be modeled as a low speed, high steal ratings kind of guy. You can find them in OOTP, and they perform just like that--few attempts, high success rate.

You might be right for simulations, but it doesn't apply that way to managerial mode. High Steal, low/medium Speed players take a huge hit in their success rate there.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by ike121212

You might be right for simulations, but it doesn't apply that way to managerial mode. High Steal, low/medium Speed players take a huge hit in their success rate there.

Could be. The only thing I would expect here is that if a low speed guy is told to steal a bunch the game might derate his steal rating a little. Dunno. But that would keep humanmangers from cheating and gaining an advantage of over-running guys who shouldn't steal a bunch. I have no knowledge if this is true or not, though.

Someone mentioned the "baserunning" rating. I do not believe that baserunning instincts have anything to do with base stealing (again, unless something changed in X).

[Left-handed Badger]

Originally Posted by kq76

MD's right.

Are you familiar with run expectancy and break-even SB%? If not, you might want to read up on it a bit. Note that the BE point does depend on the run environment though so it's not always 75 or 67 or whatever. What you're doing with your math doesn't really work, especially if you're only looking at the minus of the CS without the plus of the SB.

I'll have to read up on that if I ever get time. I always figured you needed 2 SB per CS to break even (if you get caught you lose a base and an out). Would be interesting to see what their ideas are.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by ike121212

You might be right for simulations, but it doesn't apply that way to managerial mode. High Steal, low/medium Speed players take a huge hit in their success rate there.

In my league, my 3rd baseman holds the career lead in stolen bases (the league is in it's 10th season but he is in his 7th). He has high a SB rating but his speed rating is only 53 out of 100. However, for his career he is averaging 64 stolen bases a year with a SB% of .700 (I am playing from 1901, we're now in 1910 but the game default is set for 55% I reckon). Last season he stole 83 bases and was caught 26 times. He does not get a lot of jumps with the normal "steal" option so I do force steal most of the time. I play out all games.

He may be an exception to the rule (high SB rating/middling speed). I haven't really checked the rest of the league.

[Afino]

I don't like using force steal - it seems to me I get caught more using that.

[StyxNCa]

Originally Posted by Afino

I don't like using force steal - it seems to me I get caught more using that.

He's the only one I use it with. Everyone else does what your players do.