I'm Being Scammed...Aren't I!

DanP68 · 11-24-2012, 05:20 AM

A month ago my scouting director found a 18 yr old catcher in the Dominican Republic. Decent defensive skills, projected to be a borderline MLB talent as a hitter. Not a bad guy to have in my system, so I signed him to a minor league deal and sent him to Rookie Ball.

Today, out of the blue, I receive 2 trade proposals from separate teams trying to get a hold of my catching prospect. Amazingly one team offers me one of the league's top shortstops. This is a guy with consistent ZR of +10 or more, and typically 20+ home runs with a high OBP. And he only has 2.5 years of MLB experience, so I would control him for 3+ seasons.

I decide to press the trade to see how much this team really values my catching prospect. So I ask them to throw in a solid A-ball catching prospect from their system with very good defensive skills and a pretty good power bat. And they say "Yes, let's do it."

So I back out, and ask my Legendary Skills Scout to re-evaluate my 18 year old Catcher. And he tells me the same thing..."He might eventually make the major leagues...not a great prospect...blah blah blah."

So I accept the trade. I'm getting an instant middle of the order hitter who will likely be in the All-Star game, and a decent catching prospect in return. How can I go wrong? Why in the world were they THIS interested in my catching prospect?

I just traded away Babe Ruth, didn't I?

tomwolf2008 · 11-24-2012, 08:38 AM

No, you just traded away Mike Piazza.

Joking aside, I don't have a real explaintion for it

EvilGenius · 11-24-2012, 08:41 AM

When scouting accuracy is low, this is a concern. One of the "cheats" would have been to shop him around to other teams (though its not really a cheat). Is everyone salivating over him? Or just that one team? If every team is offering a king's ransom, that'll clue you in. If not, well then, other team's bad scouting should be mercilessly pillaged.

But what's past is past. Here's how you can view it now. Superstars rarely come out of international scouting. It can happen, but from a "playing the odds" standpoint, it was a good trade. If this trade comes up 10 times, you'll come out ahead more often than not.

Alternatively, you got some really good players out of the deal. Even if he is the top prospect the other team thinks he is, how many top prospects actually pan out? So had you kept him, you still had some risk. You traded high risk/high reward for known reward/no risk (and a pretty high reward no less). Again, that's no necessarily a bad deal. Real teams do this all the time.

Unlike the Babe Ruth deal (and all the deals that preceded Babe Ruth), you got actual talent in return.

MacIsaacM · 11-24-2012, 12:05 PM

They've hit the nail on the head. That's happened to me a few times, and I'd say about half the time, it doesn't blow up in my face, but I'm no farther ahead. The fantastic player I got out of the deal flops, and so does the prospect. I can think of at least three times where I thought I robbed them, and all I did was get caught with salary.

Part of the game!

The Wolf · 11-24-2012, 02:02 PM

If you have scouting on and have a real fog of war going on, then ALWAYS pillage your opponents when their scouting fails them. Yours will fail you sometimes as well, so don't ever feel guilty. I play stats-only and it works both ways.

DanP68 · 11-24-2012, 02:02 PM

That occurred to me too...that perhaps the other team knows their all-star shortstop is about to fall off a cliff. But he's making league minimum and his contract is year-to-year while he is less than 6 years at the MLB level, so basically no risk on my part.

The Wolf · 11-24-2012, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanP68

That occurred to me too...that perhaps the other team knows their all-star shortstop is about to fall off a cliff. But he's making league minimum and his contract is year-to-year while he is less than 6 years at the MLB level, so basically no risk on my part.

Pillage away, for one day you too will be pillaged.

11-24-2012, 05:20 AM	#1
DanP68 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 151	I'm Being Scammed...Aren't I! A month ago my scouting director found a 18 yr old catcher in the Dominican Republic. Decent defensive skills, projected to be a borderline MLB talent as a hitter. Not a bad guy to have in my system, so I signed him to a minor league deal and sent him to Rookie Ball. Today, out of the blue, I receive 2 trade proposals from separate teams trying to get a hold of my catching prospect. Amazingly one team offers me one of the league's top shortstops. This is a guy with consistent ZR of +10 or more, and typically 20+ home runs with a high OBP. And he only has 2.5 years of MLB experience, so I would control him for 3+ seasons. I decide to press the trade to see how much this team really values my catching prospect. So I ask them to throw in a solid A-ball catching prospect from their system with very good defensive skills and a pretty good power bat. And they say "Yes, let's do it." So I back out, and ask my Legendary Skills Scout to re-evaluate my 18 year old Catcher. And he tells me the same thing..."He might eventually make the major leagues...not a great prospect...blah blah blah." So I accept the trade. I'm getting an instant middle of the order hitter who will likely be in the All-Star game, and a decent catching prospect in return. How can I go wrong? Why in the world were they THIS interested in my catching prospect? I just traded away Babe Ruth, didn't I?

11-24-2012, 08:38 AM	#2
tomwolf2008 Major Leagues Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 359	No, you just traded away Mike Piazza. Joking aside, I don't have a real explaintion for it

11-24-2012, 08:41 AM	#3
EvilGenius Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 153	When scouting accuracy is low, this is a concern. One of the "cheats" would have been to shop him around to other teams (though its not really a cheat). Is everyone salivating over him? Or just that one team? If every team is offering a king's ransom, that'll clue you in. If not, well then, other team's bad scouting should be mercilessly pillaged. But what's past is past. Here's how you can view it now. Superstars rarely come out of international scouting. It can happen, but from a "playing the odds" standpoint, it was a good trade. If this trade comes up 10 times, you'll come out ahead more often than not. Alternatively, you got some really good players out of the deal. Even if he is the top prospect the other team thinks he is, how many top prospects actually pan out? So had you kept him, you still had some risk. You traded high risk/high reward for known reward/no risk (and a pretty high reward no less). Again, that's no necessarily a bad deal. Real teams do this all the time. Unlike the Babe Ruth deal (and all the deals that preceded Babe Ruth), you got actual talent in return.

11-24-2012, 12:05 PM	#4
MacIsaacM Minors (Double A) Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: Victoria, BC, Canada Posts: 110	They've hit the nail on the head. That's happened to me a few times, and I'd say about half the time, it doesn't blow up in my face, but I'm no farther ahead. The fantastic player I got out of the deal flops, and so does the prospect. I can think of at least three times where I thought I robbed them, and all I did was get caught with salary. Part of the game!

11-24-2012, 02:02 PM	#6
DanP68 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 151	That occurred to me too...that perhaps the other team knows their all-star shortstop is about to fall off a cliff. But he's making league minimum and his contract is year-to-year while he is less than 6 years at the MLB level, so basically no risk on my part.