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Old 04-05-2015, 09:10 PM   #1
gads
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OOTP16.2.9 has simulated Opening Day 1 million times!
St Louis Cardinals Batting Order: Matt Carpenter (3B), Jason Heyward (RF), Matt Holiday (LF), Jhonny Peralta (SS), Matt Adams (1B), Yadier Molina (C), Kolten Wong (2B), Jon Jay (CF), Adam Wainwright (P).

Chicago Cubs Batting Order: Dexter Fowler (CF), Jorge Soler (RF), Anthony Rizzo (1B), Starlin Castro (SS), Chris Coghlan (LF), Mike Olt (3B), David Ross (C), Jon Lester (P), Tommy La Stella (2B).

Probability of St Louis Cardinals Winning: 54.7464%.
Probability of Chicago Cubs Winning: 45.2536%

Average Score: St Louis Cardinals 4.186480-3.487064 Chicago Cubs.
Average Total Runs: 7.673544

Average Starting Pitcher Statistics:
Adam Wainwright: 0.422981 W, 0.298356 L, 3.22 ERA, 6.459138 IP, 5.722331 HA, 2.498175 R, 2.308456 ER, 0.597318 HR, 1.577613 BB, 5.500206 K, 1.13 WHIP, 0.235 OAVG, 0.279 BABIP.

Jon Lester: 0.302738 W, 0.414500 L, 3.73 ERA 6.604331 IP, 6.777113 HA, 2.969331 R, 2.739463 ER, 0.569119 HR, 1.669538 BB, 5.809144 K, 1.28 WHIP, 0.264 OAVG, 0.319 BABIP.
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Old 04-05-2015, 10:34 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by gads View Post
St Louis Cardinals Batting Order: Matt Carpenter (3B), Jason Heyward (RF), Matt Holiday (LF), Jhonny Peralta (SS), Matt Adams (1B), Yadier Molina (C), Kolten Wong (2B), Jon Jay (CF), Adam Wainwright (P).

Chicago Cubs Batting Order: Dexter Fowler (CF), Jorge Soler (RF), Anthony Rizzo (1B), Starlin Castro (SS), Chris Coghlan (LF), Mike Olt (3B), David Ross (C), Jon Lester (P), Tommy La Stella (2B).

Probability of St Louis Cardinals Winning: 54.7464%.
Probability of Chicago Cubs Winning: 45.2536%

Average Score: St Louis Cardinals 4.186480-3.487064 Chicago Cubs.
Average Total Runs: 7.673544

Average Starting Pitcher Statistics:
Adam Wainwright: 0.422981 W, 0.298356 L, 3.22 ERA, 6.459138 IP, 5.722331 HA, 2.498175 R, 2.308456 ER, 0.597318 HR, 1.577613 BB, 5.500206 K, 1.13 WHIP, 0.235 OAVG, 0.279 BABIP.

Jon Lester: 0.302738 W, 0.414500 L, 3.73 ERA 6.604331 IP, 6.777113 HA, 2.969331 R, 2.739463 ER, 0.569119 HR, 1.669538 BB, 5.809144 K, 1.28 WHIP, 0.264 OAVG, 0.319 BABIP.
How did you do this? Using the simulation module, it appears that they play a series and not just simulating the individual game 1,000,000 times.

I tried running it 1000 times, but I get 5 different players getting starts in the game, not the same guy 1000 times.
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Old 04-05-2015, 10:38 PM   #3
Jim Lynch
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There is a lot of stuff there that doesn't smell right.
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Old 04-05-2015, 11:06 PM   #4
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There is a lot of stuff there that doesn't smell right.
Like what?
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Old 04-05-2015, 11:23 PM   #5
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Like what?
Well, for one thing, there's a moose in the thread, and they never smell right.
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Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

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Old 04-05-2015, 11:25 PM   #6
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Like what?

Well if the Cardinals bullpen is much better than the Cubs bullpen it makes sense. But they have to be a lot better.
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Old 04-05-2015, 11:27 PM   #7
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Well, for one thing, there's a moose in the thread, and they never smell right.
HEEELLLOOOOOOO!!

He sent me a PM, not sure why he didn't share it here. Explained it really well, he show copy/paste it here (or I will if he doesn't feel like it and he says it's okay).

It isn't the ideal system, but it works on a small scale (one game played many times; would be a hassle to do this for every game or even every team).
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Old 04-05-2015, 11:36 PM   #8
Jim Lynch
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Like what?

Could be legit - but those BABIP numbers are the absolute outer bounds of 2014 MLB.
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Old 04-05-2015, 11:37 PM   #9
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Well if the Cardinals bullpen is much better than the Cubs bullpen it makes sense. But they have to be a lot better.

By better I meant worse. A lot worse.
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Old 04-06-2015, 12:21 AM   #10
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I'm just waiting for the thread on the unrealism of a team trading for a guy with an $8 million salary and immediately DFAing him without him ever playing a game for them.
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Old 04-06-2015, 12:26 AM   #11
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Final Result: St Louis Cardinals 3-0 Chicago Cubs.

OOTP16 Record: 1-0.
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Old 04-06-2015, 12:29 AM   #12
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I'm just waiting for the thread on the unrealism of a team trading for a guy with an $8 million salary and immediately DFAing him without him ever playing a game for them.
That's refund territory.
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Old 04-06-2015, 12:49 AM   #13
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I'm just waiting for the thread on the unrealism of a team trading for a guy with an $8 million salary and immediately DFAing him without him ever playing a game for them.
Yeah, no real GM would do that unless it was Hart of the Braves...wait, what? Carlos Quentin?

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

Five thousand thanks for a non-modder? I never thought I'd see the day. Thank you for your support.
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Old 04-06-2015, 12:50 AM   #14
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Remember this the next time some newbie shows up complaining about the trade AI.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

Five thousand thanks for a non-modder? I never thought I'd see the day. Thank you for your support.
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Old 04-06-2015, 12:51 AM   #15
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That's refund territory.
And if I was a Braves season ticket holder, that's exactly what I would be demanding right now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Markus Heinsohn View Post
Well, the average OOTP user...downloads the game, manages his favorite team and that's it.
According to OOTP itself, OOTP MLB play (modern and historical) outnumbers OOTP fictional play three to one.

Five thousand thanks for a non-modder? I never thought I'd see the day. Thank you for your support.
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Old 04-06-2015, 01:41 AM   #16
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OOTP16.2.9 has simulated Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees 100 Thousands times.
Date: 6 April 2015.

Starting Pitchers: Drew Hutchinson (Toronto Blue Jays) vs Masahiro Tanaka (New York Yankees).


Probability of Toronto Blue Jays Winning: 36.384%.
Probability of New York Yankees Winning: 63.616%


Average Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.30106-5.23604 New York Yankees.
Average Totals: 8.53710.
Last edited by gads; 04-06-2015 at 02:23 AM.
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Old 04-06-2015, 02:25 AM   #17
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OOTP16.2.9 has simulated Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers 100 Thousands times.
Date: 6 April 2015.

Starting Pitchers: Phil Hughes (Minnesota Twins) vs David Price (Detroit Tigers).


Probability of Minnesota Twins Winning: 31.990%.
Probability of Detroit Tigers Winning: 68.010%


Average Score: Minnesota Twins 3.53717-5.18998 Detroit Tigers.
Average Totals: 8.72715.
Last edited by gads; 04-06-2015 at 02:27 AM.
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Old 04-06-2015, 02:53 AM   #18
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Well, for one thing, there's a moose in the thread, and they never smell right.
They may not smell right, but they taste delicious!
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Old 04-06-2015, 03:28 AM   #19
gads
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OOTP16.2.9 has simulated Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers 100 Thousands times.
Date: 6 April 2015.

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Kendrick (Colorado Rockies) vs Kyle Lohse (Milwaukee Brewers).


Probability of Colorado Rockies Winning: 45.171%.
Probability of Milwaukee Brewers Winning: 54.829%


Average Score: Colorado Rockies 4.56634-4.82369 Milwaukee Brewers.
Average Totals: 9.39003.
Last edited by gads; 04-06-2015 at 03:33 AM.
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Old 04-06-2015, 04:22 AM   #20
gads
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OOTP16.2.9 has simulated Boston Red Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies 100 Thousands times.
Date: 6 April 2015.

Starting Pitchers: Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox) vs Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies).


Probability of Boston Red Sox Winning: 46.944%.
Probability of Philadelphia Phillies Winning: 53.056%.


Average Score: Boston Red Sox 3.97412-4.01056 Philadelphia Phillies.
Average Totals: 7.98468.
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