Steroids --?

David Watts · 04-17-2015, 12:44 PM

If you were doing a historical replay importing historical modifiers and wanted to skip the steroid years, what seasons would you skip. Thinking 1989 might be a good year to lock down modifiers until around 2005-6. Or should I go to 92 or 3? By skip, I don't mean skip the seasons, I mean skip importing modifiers.

My first inclination was to lock down on 1986.

The Wolf · 04-17-2015, 12:58 PM

Makes sense. Go for it.

David Watts · 04-17-2015, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Wolf

Makes sense. Go for it.

When would you start back with the modifiers---2004,5,6?

stl jason · 04-17-2015, 01:03 PM

I'd say freeze it at 1992. If you look at the total HRs by year, there's a big jump from 1992 (3038 total) to 1993 (4030 total) - 32.65% increase (and another large jump from 1995 (4081 total) to 1996 (4962 total).

From 1988 to 1992, it was pretty consistent (3180/3083/3317/3383/3038)

Fyrestorm3 · 04-17-2015, 01:26 PM

Gonna offer nothing to this conversation except to say that's a really cool idea.

Déjà Bru · 04-17-2015, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fyrestorm3

Gonna offer nothing to this conversation except to say that's a really cool idea.

Same here. Great minds think alike because I was wondering the same thing. 'Course, I'm only in 1928 so I have a while to go yet but it's good to plan ahead!

The Game · 04-17-2015, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stl jason

I'd say freeze it at 1992. If you look at the total HRs by year, there's a big jump from 1992 (3038 total) to 1993 (4030 total) - 32.65% increase (and another large jump from 1995 (4081 total) to 1996 (4962 total).

From 1988 to 1992, it was pretty consistent (3180/3083/3317/3383/3038)

Wouldn't a big part of that be expansion and the Colorado Rockies?

Lock em in at 1987. Just throwing out a year. '85 might be better before Mark McGwire and his 49 Hr in 1986.

Déjà Bru · 04-17-2015, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Game

Wouldn't a big part of that be expansion and the Colorado Rockies?

Lock em in at 1987. Just throwing out a year. '85 might be better before Mark McGwire and his 49 Hr in 1986.

The Game, the game adjusts for teams/schedules when setting these modifiers, correct? I mean, isn't this a setting for tendency rather than absolute numbers? If so, then stl jason's suggestion would be sound, regardless of expansion.

Assos · 04-17-2015, 01:45 PM

I do not see McGwire's 49 in 1986 as the start of the juice era. We always had one or two years of a guy hitting north of 45 homers in a season. That is historical fact. Also, factor in that we had two expansions which traditionally has weakened pitching for roughly two to three years as the league adjusts to the influx of what is really more AAA players for a few years.

stl jason · 04-17-2015, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Game

Wouldn't a big part of that be expansion and the Colorado Rockies?

Lock em in at 1987. Just throwing out a year. '85 might be better before Mark McGwire and his 49 Hr in 1986.

good point, adding the extra clubs (not to mention that thin air in CO) probably helped those #s a bit. This is just one of those tweaks you have to throw a dart and pick one of the years in/around the steroid time and see what happens. Nice thing about it is you can always go back and try it again with a different year for your lock-down.

for reference, here's the list of HR totals by year:

Home Runs League by League Totals on Baseball Almanac

Questdog · 04-17-2015, 02:03 PM

From 1969-1992 is all of a piece (with a few bumps: 1977 and 1987). 1993, the numbers jump, but as other have pointed out, the Rockies and Marlins were mostly responsible for that. Offense always goes up in an expansion year.

But in 1994, MLB did something to enhance offense and the numbers jumped through the roof and stayed there. Steroids are not to blame for all of the "Steroid Era" .

It was not until 2010 in the AL and 2011 in the NL, that Baseball R/G returned to levels comparable to 1969-92. However, how they got those runs is still a LOT different from the past.

David Watts · 04-17-2015, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

From 1969-1992 is all of a piece (with a few bumps: 1977 and 1987). 1993, the numbers jump, but as other have pointed out, the Rockies and Marlins were mostly responsible for that. Offense always goes up in an expansion year.

But in 1994, MLB did something to enhance offense and the numbers jumped through the roof and stayed there. Steroids are not to blame for all of the "Steroid Era" .

It was not until 2010 in the AL and 2011 in the NL, that Baseball R/G returned to levels comparable to 1969-92. However, how they got those runs is still a LOT different from the past.

So regardless of when I start, I should stay locked down until at least 2010. Thanks.

Déjà Bru · 04-17-2015, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stl jason

good point, adding the extra clubs (not to mention that thin air in CO) probably helped those #s a bit. This is just one of those tweaks you have to throw a dart and pick one of the years in/around the steroid time and see what happens. Nice thing about it is you can always go back and try it again with a different year for your lock-down.

for reference, here's the list of HR totals by year:

Home Runs League by League Totals on Baseball Almanac

Interesting, that table. HR's are pretty much back where they were at the height of the "Steroid Era"? (Notice I just used quotes for the first time.)

actionjackson · 04-17-2015, 02:23 PM

1986 is a decent year. You've got a sub-4.50 R/G rate (4.41), sub-.260 BA (.258), sub-.330 OBP (.326), sub-.400 SLG (.395). There's enough offense there without the whacky, kooky, madcap inflated numbers that happened from about 1987 and 1993 through 2009. 1987 was either an outlier or an indicator of what was to come. You might want to try and avoid the deadball like results we've been getting the last couple of years too. Unless you like that sort of thing of course. 2010 and 2011 are decent seasons too. But the league OBP starts to take a hit around 2012, and by last year it was a measly .314. Blech! So I'd probably lock it at 1986, and then re-lock it at 2010 or 2011 before the offense completely dries up again.

The Wolf · 04-17-2015, 03:26 PM

Locking down from 1986 to 2010 seems reasonable. Or maybe 1991 to 2010.

dunningrb · 04-17-2015, 03:38 PM

I'm really glad to see this thread-- and thanks to everyone for the ideas. My current game is a reproduction of MLB with fictional players. My game date is only June 15, 1905, but I've been worried about how to handle the steroid era when I get there.

Questdog · 04-17-2015, 03:46 PM

There is no reason to exclude 1992.....

The Wolf · 04-17-2015, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

There is no reason to exclude 1992.....

There is if you didn't like it.

swoboda · 04-17-2015, 03:53 PM

Strangely enough I would say check out Jose Canseco's book titled " Juiced" , might not be a bad reference source for when roids really kicked in

David Watts · 04-17-2015, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Questdog

There is no reason to exclude 1992.....

I just looked at Chucksabr's historical replay and it does appear that things start getting crazy around 93. Based on his Giambi screenshot, 1999 and 2000 are insane.

04-17-2015, 12:44 PM	#1
David Watts Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Looking for a place called Leehofooks Posts: 9,900 Infractions: 0/1 (1)	Steroids --? If you were doing a historical replay importing historical modifiers and wanted to skip the steroid years, what seasons would you skip. Thinking 1989 might be a good year to lock down modifiers until around 2005-6. Or should I go to 92 or 3? By skip, I don't mean skip the seasons, I mean skip importing modifiers. My first inclination was to lock down on 1986. Last edited by David Watts; 04-17-2015 at 12:54 PM.

04-17-2015, 02:03 PM	#11
Questdog Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In a dark, damp cave where I'm training slugs to run the bases...... Posts: 16,142	From 1969-1992 is all of a piece (with a few bumps: 1977 and 1987). 1993, the numbers jump, but as other have pointed out, the Rockies and Marlins were mostly responsible for that. Offense always goes up in an expansion year. But in 1994, MLB did something to enhance offense and the numbers jumped through the roof and stayed there. Steroids are not to blame for all of the "Steroid Era" . It was not until 2010 in the AL and 2011 in the NL, that Baseball R/G returned to levels comparable to 1969-92. However, how they got those runs is still a LOT different from the past. Last edited by Questdog; 04-17-2015 at 02:05 PM.

04-17-2015, 03:38 PM	#16
dunningrb Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2010 Location: Durham, NC Posts: 154	I'm really glad to see this thread-- and thanks to everyone for the ideas. My current game is a reproduction of MLB with fictional players. My game date is only June 15, 1905, but I've been worried about how to handle the steroid era when I get there. __________________ -- Rodney Dunning

04-17-2015, 03:53 PM	#19
swoboda All Star Starter Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Guarding The Line Posts: 1,220	Strangely enough I would say check out Jose Canseco's book titled " Juiced" , might not be a bad reference source for when roids really kicked in __________________ "...If you want to look ahead to the bottom of the ninth, the Mets will be sending up Buddy Harrelson, Jerry Buchek , and Don Bosch, we'll be right back after this word from Rheingold Beer" The late great Lindsey Nelson

04-17-2015, 01:03 PM	#4
stl jason Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 10,112	I'd say freeze it at 1992. If you look at the total HRs by year, there's a big jump from 1992 (3038 total) to 1993 (4030 total) - 32.65% increase (and another large jump from 1995 (4081 total) to 1996 (4962 total). From 1988 to 1992, it was pretty consistent (3180/3083/3317/3383/3038)

04-17-2015, 01:26 PM	#5
Fyrestorm3 Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Tampa Bay, Massachusetts Posts: 2,928	Gonna offer nothing to this conversation except to say that's a really cool idea.

04-17-2015, 01:45 PM	#9
Assos All Star Starter Join Date: May 2004 Location: Just on the fair side of the foul pole! Posts: 1,772	I do not see McGwire's 49 in 1986 as the start of the juice era. We always had one or two years of a guy hitting north of 45 homers in a season. That is historical fact. Also, factor in that we had two expansions which traditionally has weakened pitching for roughly two to three years as the league adjusts to the influx of what is really more AAA players for a few years.

04-17-2015, 02:23 PM	#14
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,181	1986 is a decent year. You've got a sub-4.50 R/G rate (4.41), sub-.260 BA (.258), sub-.330 OBP (.326), sub-.400 SLG (.395). There's enough offense there without the whacky, kooky, madcap inflated numbers that happened from about 1987 and 1993 through 2009. 1987 was either an outlier or an indicator of what was to come. You might want to try and avoid the deadball like results we've been getting the last couple of years too. Unless you like that sort of thing of course. 2010 and 2011 are decent seasons too. But the league OBP starts to take a hit around 2012, and by last year it was a measly .314. Blech! So I'd probably lock it at 1986, and then re-lock it at 2010 or 2011 before the offense completely dries up again.

04-17-2015, 03:46 PM	#17
Questdog Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: In a dark, damp cave where I'm training slugs to run the bases...... Posts: 16,142	There is no reason to exclude 1992.....