ERA+ of 2000+

polydamas · 05-20-2015, 09:29 PM

Have you ever seen this before? I have a guy who has two seasons of 2000+ ERA+. How is that even possible? I've never seen anyone else over 250. Is this an error or are there really players who pitch that well?

I'm just flabbergasted. The highest ERA+ in baseball history appears to be Pedro Martinez's 2000 season, which was 291.

So, is this a bug or just a ridiculous couple of seasons?

Bonus Complaint: Shouldn't there be a different hall of fame formula for relievers though? This guy has a bunch of my career pitching records and he hasn't even been considered for induction.

Threnodas · 05-20-2015, 10:10 PM

ERA+ is a fairly simple stat: it's just league-average ERA divided by the pitcher's ERA, adjusted for ballpark effects (times 100). Or, to put it another way, "how many times lower was this pitcher's ERA than a league-average pitcher pitching in the same ballpark(s)?" The real mystery here is not why Jones had an ERA+ of 2609 or 2171, but why he had an ERA of 0.18 or 0.23. Bear in mind that Pedro Martinez's ERA+ record is among qualified pitchers; anyone with an ERA of 0.00 has an infinite ERA+, and Jones didn't have enough innings to qualify, either. Martinez set the ERA+ record of 291 with an ERA of 1.74, but if he instead had an ERA of 0.18 like Jones did, his ERA+ would have been ~2,813. So, the ERA+ stat is working as designed, it's just Jones's quality relative to the league that's out of whack. Is the APBL a little league? Is he the only 24-to-40-year-old among 9-year-olds?

The Hall of Fame thing is an interesting point. A sabermetric argument could be made that saves/closers are overvalued and if he didn't rack up enough WAR he shouldn't be in the Hall, but since closers are in fact valued in real life, I would agree that such an obviously dominant reliever over such a long career should have another way in. His HOF Standards are certainly strong, but the other metrics are borderline at best.

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 05-21-2015, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by polydamas

Have you ever seen this before? I have a guy who has two seasons of 2000+ ERA+. How is that even possible? I've never seen anyone else over 250. Is this an error or are there really players who pitch that well?

I'm just flabbergasted. The highest ERA+ in baseball history appears to be Pedro Martinez's 2000 season, which was 291.

So, is this a bug or just a ridiculous couple of seasons?

Bonus Complaint: Shouldn't there be a different hall of fame formula for relievers though? This guy has a bunch of my career pitching records and he hasn't even been considered for induction.

I don't think it's being calculated correctly at all since there's multiple seasons that are problematic. I'm guessing it's just an overall problem instead of a bug, or maybe that is a bug, I don't know. But none of those season totals make sense.

dunningrb · 05-21-2015, 01:23 AM

Three posts in and this thread is simply fascinating.

jaysdailydose · 05-21-2015, 03:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DustinthePOWERHOUSE

I don't think it's being calculated correctly at all since there's multiple seasons that are problematic. I'm guessing it's just an overall problem instead of a bug, or maybe that is a bug, I don't know. But none of those season totals make sense.

Just going to hope that you didn't read the explanation right above your post before your reply...

Matt Arnold · 05-21-2015, 10:21 AM

If your league ERA is in the 4.5 or higher range, then those numbers seem correct, other than how a guy can pitch ~40 innings and only give up one earned run (especially since he allowed 2 home runs).

And there is a separate criteria for relievers to make the hall. From the numbers he put up, he should easily have made it. If you upload the league file I can have a look through to see if there's a bug in Hall voting, but from how it's designed he should easily make it in.

DustinthePOWERHOUSE · 05-21-2015, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jaysdailydose

Just going to hope that you didn't read the explanation right above your post before your reply...

Totally missed that...

dunningrb · 05-21-2015, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

If your league ERA is in the 4.5 or higher range, then those numbers seem correct, other than how a guy can pitch ~40 innings and only give up one earned run (especially since he allowed 2 home runs).

It's possible for a home run to result in an unearned run or runs. For example, suppose the first two batters make an out, the third batter reaches base by error, the fourth batter hits a home run, and fifth batter makes an out. Both runs are unearned. On the other hand, things can get complicated when a relief pitcher is brought into the game. In the scenario I described, if a relief pitcher enters the game between the third and fourth batters, both runs are counted as unearned on the team's pitching record, but the home run is charged as an earned run to the relief pitcher.

If the OP has saved the game logs from his league, it would be interesting to look at the innings where those home runs occurred and confirm that OOTP has the scoring correct. I can imagine that a bug in how earned runs are tabulated would be difficult to catch.

polydamas · 05-21-2015, 05:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

If your league ERA is in the 4.5 or higher range, then those numbers seem correct, other than how a guy can pitch ~40 innings and only give up one earned run (especially since he allowed 2 home runs).

And there is a separate criteria for relievers to make the hall. From the numbers he put up, he should easily have made it. If you upload the league file I can have a look through to see if there's a bug in Hall voting, but from how it's designed he should easily make it in.

I couldn't get the file to upload on here, - it kept timing out - so I uploaded it on google drive. Here is the link

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6D...ew?usp=sharing

Matt Arnold · 05-21-2015, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by polydamas

I couldn't get the file to upload on here, - it kept timing out - so I uploaded it on google drive. Here is the link

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6D...ew?usp=sharing

Thanks, I've grabbed the file and can have a brief look through. In the future, it's likely easier to upload to our server (How to FTP files to OOTP Developments - Powered by Kayako Help Desk Software).

Matt Arnold · 05-21-2015, 06:38 PM

As for the Hall of Fame, you converted the file to 16 in 1934, and he last pitched in 1916 (although for whatever reason he didn't retire, and pitched in independant ball in 1926 when he was 50). So by default rules, he would have been on the ballot between 1921-1931 for his 10 years. If I change the rules to give more time on the ballot, and sneak in a HOF event, he ends up with 62.5% on the first ballot, so should make it in within a couple years.

05-20-2015, 09:29 PM	#1
polydamas All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 599	ERA+ of 2000+ Have you ever seen this before? I have a guy who has two seasons of 2000+ ERA+. How is that even possible? I've never seen anyone else over 250. Is this an error or are there really players who pitch that well? I'm just flabbergasted. The highest ERA+ in baseball history appears to be Pedro Martinez's 2000 season, which was 291. So, is this a bug or just a ridiculous couple of seasons? Bonus Complaint: Shouldn't there be a different hall of fame formula for relievers though? This guy has a bunch of my career pitching records and he hasn't even been considered for induction. Attached Images

05-21-2015, 01:23 AM	#4
dunningrb Minors (Double A) Join Date: May 2010 Location: Durham, NC Posts: 154	Three posts in and this thread is simply fascinating. __________________ -- Rodney Dunning

05-20-2015, 10:10 PM	#2
Threnodas Minors (Triple A) Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 256	ERA+ is a fairly simple stat: it's just league-average ERA divided by the pitcher's ERA, adjusted for ballpark effects (times 100). Or, to put it another way, "how many times lower was this pitcher's ERA than a league-average pitcher pitching in the same ballpark(s)?" The real mystery here is not why Jones had an ERA+ of 2609 or 2171, but why he had an ERA of 0.18 or 0.23. Bear in mind that Pedro Martinez's ERA+ record is among qualified pitchers; anyone with an ERA of 0.00 has an infinite ERA+, and Jones didn't have enough innings to qualify, either. Martinez set the ERA+ record of 291 with an ERA of 1.74, but if he instead had an ERA of 0.18 like Jones did, his ERA+ would have been ~2,813. So, the ERA+ stat is working as designed, it's just Jones's quality relative to the league that's out of whack. Is the APBL a little league? Is he the only 24-to-40-year-old among 9-year-olds? The Hall of Fame thing is an interesting point. A sabermetric argument could be made that saves/closers are overvalued and if he didn't rack up enough WAR he shouldn't be in the Hall, but since closers are in fact valued in real life, I would agree that such an obviously dominant reliever over such a long career should have another way in. His HOF Standards are certainly strong, but the other metrics are borderline at best.

05-21-2015, 10:21 AM	#6
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,836	If your league ERA is in the 4.5 or higher range, then those numbers seem correct, other than how a guy can pitch ~40 innings and only give up one earned run (especially since he allowed 2 home runs). And there is a separate criteria for relievers to make the hall. From the numbers he put up, he should easily have made it. If you upload the league file I can have a look through to see if there's a bug in Hall voting, but from how it's designed he should easily make it in.

05-21-2015, 06:38 PM	#11
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,836	As for the Hall of Fame, you converted the file to 16 in 1934, and he last pitched in 1916 (although for whatever reason he didn't retire, and pitched in independant ball in 1926 when he was 50). So by default rules, he would have been on the ballot between 1921-1931 for his 10 years. If I change the rules to give more time on the ballot, and sneak in a HOF event, he ends up with 62.5% on the first ballot, so should make it in within a couple years.