2014: An Oakland A's Odyssey

[Hendu Style]

If you are an A's fan or are remotely familiar with the 2014 season, you know just how cataclysmic that year was for Oakland. GM Billy Beane went "all in" in '14, dealing shortstop of the future Addison Russell to the Cubs for two starting pitchers, and Yoenis Cespedes to the Red Sox for Jon Lester. The end result had dire consequences. A second half collapse (29-38) nearly cost Oakland a spot in the postseason, and the A's ultimately lost an epic extra inning Wild Card playoff game to the Kansas City Royals. Oakland has not returned to the postseason since.

I hated the Cespedes and Russell trades then, and I despise them even more now. I'm convinced Oakland could've turned into a sustainable championship contender had it just stayed the course and not panicked in 2014. Can you imagine the left side of the infield with Josh Donaldson holding down third and Russell at short? How about Yo in the middle of that lineup? If they had those three as the nucleus of the team, imagine the possibilities. Maybe the A's could finally go after a top-tier free agent, and actually start spending money and building a team their faithful fans deserve. I'm hoping this simulation will see things my way. Please join me, as we rewrite history... in "2014: An Oakland A's Odyssey."

[Hendu Style]

I liked the lineup of hitters we had going into the season, but there were noticeable holes. Our lineup was loaded with power hitters, but devoid of contact hitters and speed. This had to change.

The rotation was even worse. Outside of Scott Kazmir and Sonny Gray, our pitching was fairly weak. We would have zero chance of winning a 5-game or 7-game series in the postseason with the likes of Jesse Chavez or Tommy Milone making playoff starts. I also wanted to upgrade our bullpen. Jim Johnson (50+ saves for the Orioles in back-to-back seasons) was a nice pickup for the A's, but I wanted a fireballer who could get strikeouts in our closer role. Johnson did not fit the bill.

In review, my targets for the 2014 offseason would be:

-Speedster for the top of the lineup
-Contact hitter
-Two starting pitchers for the top of our rotation
-Power pitcher for bullpen

On top of that, our payroll for the following season was shaping up to be a disaster. We would have no money to sign any players to extensions this season, or make a decent run at the free agent market after this season. There weren't any mammoth contracts or salaries on the ledger, but tough choices would be have to be made. I had to walk the fine line between building a team to contend for a title in 2014, but tightening payroll for the next couple of years.

With my list of ingredients now set, it was time to go shopping.

[Hendu Style]

If you'll remember, the A's lost to the Royals in the 2014 AL Wild Card thanks to an endless siege of fireballing relievers. Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Yordano Ventura, Kelvin Herrera... so much for that pitchers duel between Jon Lester and James Shields. That bullpen would serve Kansas City well, all the way up to the World Series. You know the old saying, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em." I'm taking that same approach to beat the Royals at their own game.

I was willing to do just about anything to land one of the top relievers in the game, even if that meant giving up a 30-homerun hitter and a closer who had saved 101 games over the previous two seasons. My prize was lefty flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. He had averaged a staggering 15.5 strikeouts per 9 innings over the previous two seasons. Chapman's only shortcoming was occasional bouts with wildness, which was to be expected of a pitcher throwing in the high 90's. It cost us dearly, as we lost our #5 hitter in the order, but we had acquired a true game changer in the late innings.

OAKLAND GETS:
LHP Aroldis Chapman* (38 saves, 2.54 ERA, 112 K in 63.2 IP)
*Cincinnati pays 75% of Chapman's $5.7 million salary

CINCINNATI GETS:
1B/OF Brandon Moss (.256, 30 HR, 87 RBI)
RHP Jim Johnson (50 saves, 2.95 ERA)
IF Eric Sogard (.266, 10 SB, 45 R)
OF Sam Fuld

With Cincinnati picking up all but $1.4 million of Chapman's 2014 salary, we cut a total $7.3 million from our ledger for the upcoming season, while paring another $4.4 million for 2015. We finally had the breathing room we were looking for with just under $1 million available for extensions.

Next, I set my sights on Royals reliever Wade Davis. The 28 year-old right hander had been in and out of Kansas City's rotation and bullpen, never really finding himself a home in either role. But with a 100 MPH fastball, he seemed like the perfect candidate to be a setup man for Chapman. He would be eligible for free agency, but I figured his asking price would be very low for an extension. The Royals' asking price wasn't high either, though it did cost me one of a starting pitcher and a middle reliever.

OAKLAND GETS:
RHP Wade Davis (8-11, 5.32 ERA, 135.1 IP, 114 K)

KANSAS CITY GETS:
RHP Dan Straily (10-8, 3.96 ERA, 152.1 IP, 124 K)
RHP Dan Otero (1.38 ERA, 39 IP, 27 K)

On paper, the Royals clearly got the better end of the deal. But neither Straily nor Otero has the upside of Davis, whose fastball tops out at 101 MPH. And with that, I had radically reshaped our bullpen, getting the two hardest throwers in baseball. Now I just had to find a way to replace the slugger and starting pitcher I had just traded away.

[Hendu Style]

Remember at the beginning of this whole thing how I said I loathed the Lester for Cespedes trade in 2014? I'm going to backpedal on that one a bit. It's not that I disliked Lester -- he's a great pitcher. I just hated the idea of losing a cleanup hitter and feared batter in the order. It threw off the whole lineup, and it showed in that late season tailspin. But that doesn't mean I can't still get Lester, right?

Finding a new home for Coco Crisp was a top priority for me. Yes, he had what you could consider a breakout year in 2013, hitting a career-high 22 homeruns while swiping 21 bases. But at the age of 34, he and his $11 million salary were expendable. I shopped both Coco and catcher John Jaso, and found more than a few takers. Boston seemed the most interested, offering up 4-time All-Star and 3-time Gold Glove second baseman Dustin Pedroia. The 2008 AL MVP and the Red Sox were at an impasse, as Pedroia was entering the final year of his contract and was intent upon exploring free agency. A one-year rental of Pedroia was intriguing, but I tabled those talks with Boston to listen to an even more tempting offer from Cleveland. The Indians were coming on strong for Jaso and our rookie phenom pitcher, Sonny Gray. Cleveland wanted a package that would net us Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, two starting pitchers in their late 20's still trying to find their groove in the bigs.

Ultimately, I went back to the Red Sox, using that leverage from the Indians to land two standout starting pitchers.

OAKLAND GETS:
LHP Jon Lester (15-8, 3.75 ERA, 213.1 IP, 177 K)
RHP John Lackey* (10-13, 3.52 ERA, 189.1 IP, 161 K)
*Boston pays for 100% of Lackey's $10.6 million salary in 2015

BOSTON GETS:
OF Coco Crisp (.261, 22 HR, 21 SB, 93 R)
IF Jed Lowrie* (.290, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 80 R)
C/LF John Jaso* (.271, .387 OBP)
*Oakland pays for 100% of Lowrie's and Jaso's $7.56 million salary in 2014

Both Crisp and Lowrie played in Boston previously, though neither played particularly well at Fenway in their days with the Red Sox. Boston wanted an insurance policy in the event Pedroia walks in free agency, and they got in in Lowrie. They also got some much-needed outfield depth in Crisp and Jaso, who can also catch.

For us, the prize was Jon Lester and John Lackey. Lester consistently hovered around 200 innings for each of the last six seasons, but the caveat with him was his impending free agency after the 2014 season. There was no way I would let him be a 33-start rental. The genius of this trade was having Boston pay all of Lackey's $10.6 million salary for 2015. That money would be put right back into our budget to start negotiating an extension to keep Lester in Oakland and avoid free agency.

Of course, the cost of all of this goes well beyond dollars and cents. I may have given us a starting rotation to be reckoned with it, but we lost our batters in our lineup, and solid ones at that.

[Hendu Style]

With holes to fill at 1B (Brandon Moss), C (John Jaso), SS (Jed Lowrie), and OF (Coco Crisp), I knew one trade wasn't going to fill the void. But I was determined to add speed and contact hitting to my new-look batting order. The L.A. Dodgers were happy to oblige.

OAKLAND GETS:
RF Andre Eithier (.272, 12 HR, 33 2B, 52 RBI)
IF Dee Gordon (.234, 10 SB)
IF Justin Turner (.280, 13 2B)
RHP Dan Haren* (10-4, 4.67 ERA, 169.2 IP, 151 K)
*Los Angeles pays for Haren's $1.6 million salary for 2014, 2015
+$5,000,000 cash

LOS ANGELES GETS:
LHP Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.04 ERA, 158 IP, 162 K)
RHP Jesse Chavez (2-4, 3.92 ERA, 57.1 IP, 55 K)
C Derek Norris (.246, 9 HR, 30 RBI)
OF Billy Burns (rookie)
IF Alberto Callaspo (.270, 5 HR)

This may have been my most questionable trade. I lost a sure top of the rotation starter in Scott Kazmir, and my last true catcher in Derek Norris. My thought process here was that I could move Stephen Vogt from 1B to C, and find a serviceable backup somewhere in free agency. Kazmir was set for a return to form after a once-promising start to his MLB in his early 20's, but I wasn't wild about the $13 million salary in year two when his contract vests after this season. Meanwhile, Billy Burns was slated to become my Opening Day centerfielder after Coco got shipped off to Boston, but he was a key part of the trade with the Dodgers and would never get his shot in Oakland.

Dee Gordon gave me instant speed at the top of the order, evidenced by his 66 career steals in 3 MLB seasons. I found a true contact hitter in Justin Turner, though it wasn't yet clear where he would end up since his natural position at third base was occupied by Josh Donaldson. Curiously, the two veterans of the Dodger swap -- Andre Eithier and Dan Haren -- were almost afterthoughts in this whole thing. Eithier's $14.1 million salary made him unpalatable to most, but I was willing to take on his salary for the last year of his contract. Haren, a once promising 200+ strikeout per year pitcher, gave us a solid back-end starter at a very reasonable salary of $1.6 million, kindly paid by the Dodgers for the next two years.

Yes, there were still gaps in the outfield and at first base, but we finally had something closely resembling a baseball team once again.

[Hendu Style]

2014 MLB PREVIEW


What does Joel Sherman see in his crystal ball this season for Orioles slugger Chris Davis, Marlins ace Jose Fernandez and Angels wunderkind Mike Trout?


JOEL SHERMAN

Here I am, once again, asked (forced?) by my bosses to make predictions on the unpredictable.

For example, could anyone have seen three — count ’em, three — projected Opening Day starters (Atlanta’s Kris Medlen, Arizona’s Patrick Corbin and Oakland’s Jarrod Parker) being lost for the season before the third week of March was complete? This was no way to honor the recently deceased Frank Jobe — by making the Tommy John surgery he invented the storyline of spring.

I am fairly comfortable predicting the expanded use of replay will be seismic and controversial. There will be stalling tactics and mistakes that bring a deluge of criticism upon the sport. Will the leadership have the fortitude to remember there is no perfect system and the key element is getting a larger majority of calls correct than in the past with technology that can no longer be ignored? My hunch is yes — replay is here to stay.

As for everything else, you make predictions with your ear to the ground — listening to as many executives and scouts watching the industry as possible — but also with tongue in cheek:

American League

MVP: Mike Trout, Angels. He won’t be the runner-up a third straight time. But he will be pressed by Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera, Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria, Baltimore’s Chris Davis and Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis.

Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Tigers. Rediscovered his familiar self down the stretch and in the playoffs last year. A workhorse with four above-average pitches. Oakland’s Jon Lester has climbed to elite level to challenge Verlander, as will Seattle’s Felix Hernandez and the White Sox’s Chris Sale.

Rookie: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox. Already a World Series hero, he will be asked to be Boston’s starting shortstop and appears up to it physically and emotionally. Masahiro Tanaka is going to be tough on opponents with his splitter, especially the first time around the league. In fact, the AL could be sitting on a terrific crop with Seattle’s Taijuan Walker, the White Sox’s Jose Abreu, Detroit’s Nick Castellanos, Houston’s George Springer, Kansas City’s Yordano Ventura and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor.

Don’t be surprised if …

• Chris Davis was not a fluke and hits 50 homers again.

• Chris Archer and Alex Cobb get more Cy Young consideration than David Price and make Price’s eventual trade from the Rays a bit easier to tolerate.

• The Angels’ Tyler Skaggs turns into one of the best under-the-radar additions of the offseason.

• Eric Hosmer makes his first All-Star team and finishes in the top 10 for MVP.

• It wasn’t New York or Yankee Stadium as Phil Hughes goes 11-12 with a 4.55 ERA with the Twins.

• Robinson Cano has a Robinson Cano season — .315, 28 homers — but that is not enough to elevate a poor Seattle offense.

• Toronto is far out of contention and becomes the big player in July, willing to listen on Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, R.A. Dickey, Sergio Santos and Casey Janssen.

National League

MVP: Bryce Harper, Nationals. It feels like he has been around a while, but he doesn’t even turn 22 until October. A 30-homer, 20-steal, .900-OPS season is coming — why not this year? Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt, Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen, San Francisco’s Buster Posey and Miami’s Giancarlo Stanton round out the top five.

Cy Young: Jose Fernandez, Marlins. Fernandez does not turn 22 until July, but there was nothing fluky about last year’s best NL breakthrough since Doc Gooden. The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner and Washington’s Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann make it a race.

Rookie: Gregory Polanco, Pirates. The Rookie of the Year will be older than the Cy Young or MVP. Polanco, 22, won’t start the season in the majors, but one scout called him “a beast who can’t be kept in the minors long.” Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton is the most obvious choice because he will lead off and play center field from the outset of the season. Keep an eye on Arizona starter Archie Bradley.

Don’t be surprised if …

• Brandon Belt makes his first All-Star team, finishes in the MVP top 10 and moves the Giants to give him a contract similar to what the Braves bestowed on Freddie Freeman.

• Cincinnati’s Billy Hamilton becomes the first major leaguer to reach 80 steals since Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson topped the mark in 1988.

• Matt Kemp’s ankle and shoulder are healed, allowing him to return to star level for the Dodgers. However, pitchers do a better job of deciphering Yasiel Puig’s holes, leading to lower production and a higher frequency of on-field bad behavior.

• The Phillies plummet well under .500 and do a July selloff, finally moving Cliff Lee. The Angels are the most interested suitor, but the Red Sox and Diamondbacks have the deeper systems to battle for the lefty.

• The Nationals — with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper getting closer to their high ceilings — become the first team since the 2003 Giants to win an NL division by more than 15 games.

• Ryan Braun puts up a season quite familiar to his past, leaving us even more confused about who is taking illegal performance-enhancers, how and why.

• The Cardinals’ Trevor Rosenthal and Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen both amass 56 saves, breaking Eric Gagne’s NL record of 55.

[Hendu Style]

The first week of the 2014 season was highlighted by a rare feat: a 17-run performance (including a 15-run inning) without hitting a single homerun. Josh Reddick was impressive at the plate, hitting .417 for the week on the way to AL Player of the Week honors. Josh Donaldson also signed a contract extension, topping out at $124.2 million over the next 8 years. Later in April, we were able to sign Jon Lester to a 5-year, $92 million extension ($18.4 million per season). Nothing about the A's was going to be typical this season, from our approach at the plate to our willingness to spend money to keep players in Oakland.

[Hendu Style]

Josh Reddick's hot start and our ability to score runs without relying on the longball got me thinking. Why not cash in on Reddick's high value now and swap it out for some more speed on the basepaths? Much to Josh's chagrin, I put him on the trading block, and I was very pleasantly surprised with what I got back.

Cleveland offered up shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera. The Yankees dangled veteran first baseman Mark Texeira. The Blue Jays were willing to part with southpaw J.A. Happ. There were many other offers as well, but Kansas City's proposal of Jarrod Dyson was by far the most tempting. Though Craig Gentry was playing marvelously in place of Coco Crisp, his defense was below par, and I wanted someone who could cover more ground in CF to cover up some of Yoenis Cespedes's shortcomings in LF.

OAKLAND GETS:
OF Jarrod Dyson (.329, 15 SB, 18 R in 19 games)
IF/OF Danny Valencia (.231 in 13 AB)

KANSAS CITY GETS:
OF Josh Reddick (.375, 4 HR, 20 RBI in 24 games)
OF Craig Gentry (.383, 9 SB, 15 R in 26 games)

I suppose the trade made sense for the Royals since they were getting a power-hitting rightfielder, and Dyson was already stuck behind Lorenzo Cain in CF. Gentry gave them a quality fourth outfielder for some depth. Valencia provided us another option at first base, by far our weakest position on the field. The Royals also agreed to pay the remainder of Dyson's salary for the 2014 season.

Since the Jays were offering Happ, I decided to send them a flyer, even if it didn't involve Reddick. Toronto was looking for a boost to their rotation and weren't happy with Happ. They were madly in love with our offseason signee, Patrick Corbin, who had been on quite a roll in each of his last three starts:

8 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K
9 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Folks, that's 2 earned runs over his last 26 innings pitched. Problem was, we only signed Corbin to a 1-year deal, and I had no intentions of signing him to an extension. Straight-up, this would've been a fine deal for both parties involved, but I decided to up the ante and ask for R.A. Dickey as well. The knuckleballer had been a disappointment since coming over from the Mets and was in the last year of his contract. I offered up young lefty Tommy Milone in return, and we had ourselves a deal.

OAKLAND GETS:
LHP J.A. Happ (2-1, 4.25 ERA, 29.2 IP, 27 K)
RHP R.A. Dickey (2-3, 3.41 ERA, 34.1 IP, 19 K)

TORONTO GETS:
LHP Patrick Corbin (3-1, 2.29 ERA, 35.1 IP, 22 K)
LHP Tom Milone (2.11 ERA, 21.1 IP, 21 K)

We were happy to trade Milone, since Tommy was growing tiresome of not being in our rotation. The best part of this deal was that Toronto not only agreed to pay half of Dickey's $8.6 million salary for this season, but also all of Happ's $4.6 million salary through 2016. Yes, it cost us two promising lefties who were pitching incredibly well for us, but I liked the idea of having a rental pitcher in Dickey for this season, and a free pitcher in Happ for 2014, 2015, and 2016. With two trades, our payroll remained almost unchanged for 2014, going from $70.9 million to $72.2. But our projected payroll for 2015 had shrunk by ten million dollars, from $76.8 million to $66.4. With a very promising free agent market looming in 2015, we were positioning ourselves well for the offseason, which was still seven months away. I felt like a squirrel storing a tree-full of acorns for winter.

[Hendu Style]

The 2014 regular season ended with an AL batting champ (Justin Turner: .359 BA), two 100 RBI men (Josh Donaldson: 109, Yoenis Cespedes: 105), and a near-20 game winner (Jon Lester: 19 wins). Most importantly, it ended with a first place finish in the AL West (101-61).

A 9-game win streak in August and an 11-game win streak in September helped us pull away from the Marines (87-75) down the stretch. We managed to finish third in the league in runs scored (781) despite a power deprived offense that finished 10th in the AL in home runs (142). We had a stellar pitching staff to thank for that, with the AL's #2 starters ERA (3.65) and #1 bullpen ERA (2.71) allowing a total of just 612 runs, tops in the American League. Perhaps most surprising was the team's .691 defensive efficiency, which for much of the season ranked anywhere from 9th to 14th in the league. It finished #4.

It wasn't all sunshine and rainbows in the regular season, though, as CF Jarrod Dyson managed to play only half the season with multiple injuries, while SS Dee Gordon suffered a season-ending ruptured Achilles. Luckily, free agent signee Jose Iglesias (.292) stepped in nicely at short. Sonny Gray had a disappointing 12-11, 4.62 ERA showing in his first full season in the majors, but midseason acquisition R.A. Dickey (11-10, 3.81 ERA) was a nice surprise in the rotation.

Since 2011, the A's had improved their win total each and every year:
2011: 74-88
2012: 94-68
2013: 96-66
2014: 101-61

Armed with our best regular season since 2002 (103-59), we were ready for the postseason.

[Hendu Style]

Unlike in the "real" 2014 MLB postseason, the A's didn't have a one-game Wild Card playoff against the Royals to open (and end) their postseason.

The Oakland A's 2014 playoff run began with a best-of-five ALDS with the Seattle Mariners, who had to use ace Felix Hernandez to get past David Price and Tampa Bay in the AL Wild Card. Jon Lester delivered an 8 inning, 3-hit, 12 strikeout gem in a 2-0 Game 1 victory, followed by a complete game, 5-hit, 14 strikeout masterpiece in a winner-take-all Game 5.

[Hendu Style]

While we rode the arm of Jon Lester in the ALDS, it was John Lackey and R.A. Dickey who carried the A's in the ALCS. Lester was riding on fumes after his two starts against the Royals, and it showed in Game 4 of the Championship Series in Detroit, as he lasted just 4 innings against the American League's top scoring offense. Where Lester came up short, teammates Lackey and Dickey came on strong. Lackey earned victories in Games 1 and 5, allowing just two runs in 14 innings, while striking out 14 batters. Dickey was also clutch in Game 3 and 6 victories, surrendering just 2 runs in his 13.2 innings of work, fanning 16 on the way. The A's beat the Tigers in six games, to reach their first World Series since 1990.

[Hendu Style]

As luck would have it, the A's drew the LA Dodgers in the 2014 World Series. The trade that set Oakland down this path was now at the forefront of a series featuring two proud franchises which had last met in the postseason in the 1988 World Series.

All year long, Los Angeles had to hear about how they had been taken to the cleaners on a preseason trade with Oakland, as ex-Dodger Justin Turner flirted with .400 before finishing the season with a MLB-best .359 batting average. Sure, they were happy with the performances of Scott Kazmir (14-10, 3.27 ERA) and Jesse Chavez (12-5, 4.10 ERA), and yes, the end result was a 95-win regular season and NL West crown, but LA would never hear the end of it. Until now.

Oakland may have had its two studs Lester & Lackey at the top of their rotation, but it didn't compare to the two aces the Dodgers had been riding all season long. Clayton Kershaw struck out 292 batters during the regular season, and Zack Greinke fanned 253. Quite simply, it was one of the most potent 1-2 punches in MLB history, and it showed in the World Series. Kershaw & Greinke allowed a total of just two runs (1 earned) in Games 1 and 2, and the Dodgers held a commanding 3-0 Series lead after Hyun-jin Ryu baffled the A's in Game 3. Oakland's offense had been held to a scant three runs after three games. All that changed in Game 4, when they erupted for 15 hits in a 15-5 win over Scott Kazmir and company. But Kershaw would close the series out in Game 5 in a 4-1 victory. Just as they had done in 1988, the A's had lost to the Dodgers in 5 games in the World Series.

[Hendu Style]

Folks, it looks like the A's are in great shape for the future. We went to the World Series, with the nucleus of our team under contract or under club control. Attendance is up. Payroll is up. And we have $27 million to spend in free agency. Could the A's have ended up signing Max Scherzer or David Price? I guess we'll never know...

That concludes by 2014: An Oakland A's Odyssey. I'm looking forward to my next project, as we fast forward in time with another A's dynasty. Thanks for watching, and I'll see you in... 2020?