Runs/GM, historical way down

Reed · 04-23-2018, 10:31 AM

I have tried this using neutralized stats, real stats, 3 year recalc, and one rear recalc, playing historical (NOT random debut). Every year from 1901 to 1960 (I stop at 1960) the RUNS/GM are anywhere from -4% to -14% depressed. All the other stats on the Historical Simulation Screen seem normal but I think I have discovered the reason for the Runs/GM being down. THE STOLEN BASE success rate appears to be WAY DOWN. Consistently around 55% when it should be around 75%.
Below is a sample of the seasons I tested. I set injuries off, 1 year recal, real stats. Again this is a sample so you can see what I am talking about but EVERY year is like this.
1st column is sample year, 2nd column R/G from historical accuracy screen at end of year, 3rd col is expected stolen base % from stats %AI screen one day after season start, 4th col is total # of stolen bases from team batting statistics screen, 5th col is caught stealing total from team batting statistics screen, and 6th col is actual percent of successful stolen bases(successful stolen bases/stolen base attempts)

Year. R/G. Exp SB%. Stolen bases. Caught stealing. Success SB%
1901. -9.1%. 75%. 3177. 2390. 58%
1902. -10.8%. 75%. 2875. 2082. 58%
1903. -10.2%. 72%. 2651. 2199. 55%
1904. —6.8%. 72%. 2590. 2077 55%
1905. -13.5%. 70%. 2651. 2163. 55%
1910. -6.8%. 74%. 3088. 2481. 55%
1920. -4%. 74%. 1622. 1444. 54%

Again, these are sample years. EVERY year from 1901 to 1960 has depressed runs per game similar to the above sample. All the other stats seem right on EXCEPT successful stolen base percentage. Successful stolen base % should be around 74% but it is around 55% which I am guessing is causing the depressed Runs/game.
Thank You

Spritze · 04-23-2018, 11:03 AM

1901-1920 an overall 55% SB success rate was normal. Partly due to the failed hit and run that "scientific" baseball called for. CS was not a kept stat back then in most years and the few minor leagues that kept them also have a 50ish% success rate.

Where are you finding your 75% expected success rate numbers?

Reed · 04-23-2018, 11:32 AM

I am sure you are probably right. I got the 74% from the stats & AI tab page, right side half way down where it says “stolen base success %”.
I guess I need to do more digging to see why my R/G is depressed.

Spritze · 04-23-2018, 04:18 PM

R/G depression is generally caused by OOTP using non-historical bullpen/starting pitcher usage. Every version something gets added which helps this out. I believe it will all get sorted eventually.

Reed · 04-23-2018, 05:46 PM

I really appreciate your feedback and insight. Since all my other stats are spot on. I can live with R/G being just a little low.

04-23-2018, 10:31 AM	#1
Reed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,339	Runs/GM, historical way down I have tried this using neutralized stats, real stats, 3 year recalc, and one rear recalc, playing historical (NOT random debut). Every year from 1901 to 1960 (I stop at 1960) the RUNS/GM are anywhere from -4% to -14% depressed. All the other stats on the Historical Simulation Screen seem normal but I think I have discovered the reason for the Runs/GM being down. THE STOLEN BASE success rate appears to be WAY DOWN. Consistently around 55% when it should be around 75%. Below is a sample of the seasons I tested. I set injuries off, 1 year recal, real stats. Again this is a sample so you can see what I am talking about but EVERY year is like this. 1st column is sample year, 2nd column R/G from historical accuracy screen at end of year, 3rd col is expected stolen base % from stats %AI screen one day after season start, 4th col is total # of stolen bases from team batting statistics screen, 5th col is caught stealing total from team batting statistics screen, and 6th col is actual percent of successful stolen bases(successful stolen bases/stolen base attempts) Year. R/G. Exp SB%. Stolen bases. Caught stealing. Success SB% 1901. -9.1%. 75%. 3177. 2390. 58% 1902. -10.8%. 75%. 2875. 2082. 58% 1903. -10.2%. 72%. 2651. 2199. 55% 1904. —6.8%. 72%. 2590. 2077 55% 1905. -13.5%. 70%. 2651. 2163. 55% 1910. -6.8%. 74%. 3088. 2481. 55% 1920. -4%. 74%. 1622. 1444. 54% Again, these are sample years. EVERY year from 1901 to 1960 has depressed runs per game similar to the above sample. All the other stats seem right on EXCEPT successful stolen base percentage. Successful stolen base % should be around 74% but it is around 55% which I am guessing is causing the depressed Runs/game. Thank You

04-23-2018, 11:03 AM	#2
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	1901-1920 an overall 55% SB success rate was normal. Partly due to the failed hit and run that "scientific" baseball called for. CS was not a kept stat back then in most years and the few minor leagues that kept them also have a 50ish% success rate. Where are you finding your 75% expected success rate numbers? __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it!

04-23-2018, 04:18 PM	#4
Spritze OOTP Historical Czar Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Bothell Wa Posts: 7,253	R/G depression is generally caused by OOTP using non-historical bullpen/starting pitcher usage. Every version something gets added which helps this out. I believe it will all get sorted eventually. __________________ It's madness, madness, I tell you! For the love of God, don't do it!

04-23-2018, 11:32 AM	#3
Reed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,339	I am sure you are probably right. I got the 74% from the stats & AI tab page, right side half way down where it says “stolen base success %”. I guess I need to do more digging to see why my R/G is depressed.

04-23-2018, 05:46 PM	#5
Reed Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 2,339	I really appreciate your feedback and insight. Since all my other stats are spot on. I can live with R/G being just a little low.