promotion/demotion in a stats only enviornment

Hrycaj · 07-12-2018, 09:42 AM

For those of you who enjoy this style of play how do you handle promotions and demotions? I want to avoid stagnation with as many of my prospects as possible.

In my current solo game I have 3 levels of minors. I went back all the way to OOTP17 in my forum search and I think "NoOne" posted that he used the following:

AAA: .230
AA: 215
A: .200
SA: .180 (I don't have a short A in my save but I didn't want to leave it out for those that do)

I know many have moved on from BA. So what do people use? w/oba? w/rc+? What should that look like?

I couldn't find anything for pitchers. I personally use K/BB ratio and FIP for a lot of things.

Also how many AB's and IP before you would make a promotion/demotion? Just curious how others make their decisions in this mode?

jimmysthebestcop · 07-13-2018, 01:43 AM

Pitchers I use K/9, HR/9, BB/9 to judge mechanics and ERA+ and FIP and FIP-. I feel pitching cateagories are severely lacking compared to hitting. I mean they use a lot of fangraphs columns but pitching needs to use more. Would really like ERA- and xFIP- and SIERA. I really only use ERA+ because it is there I really don't like it and if the other stat categories were options I would use them.

Hitters I use OPS+, WRC+ and wOBA. Def my favorite stats.

battists · 07-13-2018, 09:01 AM

I'm about the same as jimmysthebestcop over here in terms of stats. I like WHIP too for pitchers.

I like to see my players play consistently for a while - usually at least a few months of regular action at a particular level - before I will consider moving them up (or down). I also use the minor league system report.

Unfortunately I'm playing as a minor league manager right now, so I can't control promotion/demotion. I've got a guy in his third year in rookie ball, has hit .300 every season there. OK Mr.GM? (Would be neat to have the ability to "recommend promotion/demotion".)

NoOne · 07-13-2018, 12:07 PM

i think i mention somewhere in that sprawling post to compare to baseline for those leagues.

all of those suggestions above (below?) are awesome. whip, k/9, bb/9 hr/9 -- basically anything that is a rate and not just counting something up (which tells you just very little in a precise manner). hr rate, not how many hr they hit.

if you autocalculated the LTM for your minors, you can easily use the information from the Stats and AI settings page to determine what baseline is for many things. for others, you may need to pay attention to league for a bit to get a ballpark idea on some things.

a stat like ops+ or era+ will summarize this for you, as it is relative to league average (=100). i would wager my 'guide's' suggestions amount to about ~115-120ops+ for a promotion then maintain at least ~80-90ops+ at next level. more forgiving for age-appropriate players and less forgiving for a younger player.. e.g. maybe closer to ~100ops+ to maintain promotion for an 18 year old above S-A.

as with all stats that try to summarize, it has severe limitations. while i pay more attention to the individuals tats like hr/9 and whip, if i'm doing a quick glance over of my MiL Keeper list during year, this is one of the things i peek at. if it's high enough our suitable, you don't have to look much further. at that point in calendar i have already done some more nitty-gritty evaluation.

about those #'s from the guide.
those were estimated BA's in the editor for a player with ~ratings for a particular level. i intend to adjust those, too. i will be bumping them up a bit -- ratings only just leaving the editor out of it because it seems to cause more confusion than anything.

i think i remove them recently too.

Dr Naysay · 07-13-2018, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hrycaj

For those of you who enjoy this style of play how do you handle promotions and demotions? I want to avoid stagnation with as many of my prospects as possible.

In my current solo game I have 3 levels of minors. I went back all the way to OOTP17 in my forum search and I think "NoOne" posted that he used the following:

AAA: .230
AA: 215
A: .200
SA: .180 (I don't have a short A in my save but I didn't want to leave it out for those that do)

I know many have moved on from BA. So what do people use? w/oba? w/rc+? What should that look like?

I couldn't find anything for pitchers. I personally use K/BB ratio and FIP for a lot of things.

Also how many AB's and IP before you would make a promotion/demotion? Just curious how others make their decisions in this mode?

Pinched from someone who pinched it from fangraphs I think. It's what I use with ISO for big hitters too.

battists · 07-13-2018, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Naysay

Pinched from someone who pinched it from fangraphs I think. It's what I use with ISO for big hitters too.

Ooh stealing that, thanks!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hrycaj · 07-13-2018, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Naysay

Pinched from someone who pinched it from fangraphs I think. It's what I use with ISO for big hitters too.

I have those charts as well. Fangraphs is amazing. Thanks for all the replys. It sounds like there isn't a magic threshold players reach before people promote or demote. I have another sheet that I can share that talks about stabilization of stats. Basically how many ip or pa a hitter or pitcher needs before you can trust that rate.

Personally, if injuries are not a factor (but they always are right!) I try to keep guys at the same level from the beginning of the season till the June draft. Then I move some specs around. Then I do it again around September call up time. I only do this because I want to cut down on my offseason priorities by getting specs where I want them for the next season.

I desperately want to play manager only mode but I can't handle how the AI implodes my roster on a weekly basis and will not promote deserving guys like Battist is dealing with. Too frustrating for me. Also, I'm not even sure it really mirrors a real mlb setting.

NoOne · 07-14-2018, 12:29 AM

even if you are 'late' at moving them up, it's not much of a penalty because the ai does this sort of inefficient thing all the time. my logic here is that the game would break if it was a big deal, lol.

those charts apply to MLB. if the stats and ai league totals differe in rates for average, you'll want to shift those a bit to translate to that particular MiL level.

e.g. it says 20% for SO average rate. if the league totals for that level show a 22% average, you should assume everythign ticks up a bit. ~10% in this case and likely more as you near the extremes of good and bad.

just liek how you evaluate players with stats... comapre to baseline. once safely above that baseline, promote. what is that line? that's half the fun/pride. there are wrinkles like age and service time and possible 'adaptability' from personality too.

jimmysthebestcop · 07-14-2018, 03:23 AM

yea fangraphs is the bible I just want more of it for pitchers in game. Hitters get all the cool stuff

07-12-2018, 09:42 AM	#1
Hrycaj All Star Starter Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 1,752	promotion/demotion in a stats only enviornment For those of you who enjoy this style of play how do you handle promotions and demotions? I want to avoid stagnation with as many of my prospects as possible. In my current solo game I have 3 levels of minors. I went back all the way to OOTP17 in my forum search and I think "NoOne" posted that he used the following: AAA: .230 AA: 215 A: .200 SA: .180 (I don't have a short A in my save but I didn't want to leave it out for those that do) I know many have moved on from BA. So what do people use? w/oba? w/rc+? What should that look like? I couldn't find anything for pitchers. I personally use K/BB ratio and FIP for a lot of things. Also how many AB's and IP before you would make a promotion/demotion? Just curious how others make their decisions in this mode? __________________ Click on my signature to read about the great game of baseball in Normington. Last edited by Hrycaj; 07-12-2018 at 12:19 PM.

07-13-2018, 09:01 AM	#3
battists Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,506	I'm about the same as jimmysthebestcop over here in terms of stats. I like WHIP too for pitchers. I like to see my players play consistently for a while - usually at least a few months of regular action at a particular level - before I will consider moving them up (or down). I also use the minor league system report. Unfortunately I'm playing as a minor league manager right now, so I can't control promotion/demotion. I've got a guy in his third year in rookie ball, has hit .300 every season there. OK Mr.GM? (Would be neat to have the ability to "recommend promotion/demotion".) __________________ Come check out my dynasty report, Funky Times!

07-13-2018, 12:07 PM	#4
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	i think i mention somewhere in that sprawling post to compare to baseline for those leagues. all of those suggestions above (below?) are awesome. whip, k/9, bb/9 hr/9 -- basically anything that is a rate and not just counting something up (which tells you just very little in a precise manner). hr rate, not how many hr they hit. if you autocalculated the LTM for your minors, you can easily use the information from the Stats and AI settings page to determine what baseline is for many things. for others, you may need to pay attention to league for a bit to get a ballpark idea on some things. a stat like ops+ or era+ will summarize this for you, as it is relative to league average (=100). i would wager my 'guide's' suggestions amount to about ~115-120ops+ for a promotion then maintain at least ~80-90ops+ at next level. more forgiving for age-appropriate players and less forgiving for a younger player.. e.g. maybe closer to ~100ops+ to maintain promotion for an 18 year old above S-A. as with all stats that try to summarize, it has severe limitations. while i pay more attention to the individuals tats like hr/9 and whip, if i'm doing a quick glance over of my MiL Keeper list during year, this is one of the things i peek at. if it's high enough our suitable, you don't have to look much further. at that point in calendar i have already done some more nitty-gritty evaluation. about those #'s from the guide. those were estimated BA's in the editor for a player with ~ratings for a particular level. i intend to adjust those, too. i will be bumping them up a bit -- ratings only just leaving the editor out of it because it seems to cause more confusion than anything. i think i remove them recently too. Last edited by NoOne; 07-13-2018 at 12:10 PM.

07-13-2018, 01:43 AM	#2
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	Pitchers I use K/9, HR/9, BB/9 to judge mechanics and ERA+ and FIP and FIP-. I feel pitching cateagories are severely lacking compared to hitting. I mean they use a lot of fangraphs columns but pitching needs to use more. Would really like ERA- and xFIP- and SIERA. I really only use ERA+ because it is there I really don't like it and if the other stat categories were options I would use them. Hitters I use OPS+, WRC+ and wOBA. Def my favorite stats.

07-14-2018, 12:29 AM	#8
NoOne Banned Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 7,273 Infractions: 0/1 (3)	even if you are 'late' at moving them up, it's not much of a penalty because the ai does this sort of inefficient thing all the time. my logic here is that the game would break if it was a big deal, lol. those charts apply to MLB. if the stats and ai league totals differe in rates for average, you'll want to shift those a bit to translate to that particular MiL level. e.g. it says 20% for SO average rate. if the league totals for that level show a 22% average, you should assume everythign ticks up a bit. ~10% in this case and likely more as you near the extremes of good and bad. just liek how you evaluate players with stats... comapre to baseline. once safely above that baseline, promote. what is that line? that's half the fun/pride. there are wrinkles like age and service time and possible 'adaptability' from personality too.

07-14-2018, 03:23 AM	#9
jimmysthebestcop Banned Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 1,727 Infractions: 0/2 (5)	yea fangraphs is the bible I just want more of it for pitchers in game. Hitters get all the cool stuff