How Much Patience Should a GM Have?

[Violinguy]

This is obviously subjective, but where do you draw the line when you have a pretty solid team but it's underperforming on the field? 10, 20 under 500? 15 games out? My Twins are fairly stacked and expected to make the playoffs, but 60 games into the season, we're 12 games behind Cleveland and 10 games under 500.


I'm obviously playing as GM only. I guess my choices are, hire Mike Soscia and try to turn things around, or, let us finish our freefall and dump salary before the trade deadline.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Violinguy

How Much Patience Should a GM Have?

Enough, but not too much.

This is obviously subjective, but where do you draw the line when you have a pretty solid team but it's underperforming on the field? 10, 20 under 500? 15 games out? My Twins are fairly stacked and expected to make the playoffs, but 60 games into the season, we're 12 games behind Cleveland and 10 games under 500.


I'm obviously playing as GM only. I guess my choices are, hire Mike Soscia and try to turn things around, or, let us finish our freefall and dump salary before the trade deadline.

I'm not a big fan of making a change, just to make a change.

If you haven't identified the manager as the problem, then there's no reason to change him.

A lot of people will see an underperforming team change managers, and then the team will improve, and they'll credit that to the manager. But, that makes no sense. If the team is underperforming, then the expectation is that they'll improve. So, no reason to think it was the new manager who is responsible.

But, I digress.

If you think your team is stacked, I'd ride it out and see what happens.
If you have weaknesses, you can improve, you should try to improve them. But, consider the hole you've dug - you don't want to give up too much future for this season if you're already unlikely to make the playoffs.

[pgjocki]

There is a theory that each team should win a bit more than 50% of their home games and a little less than their away games and the mean is very close to finishing the year at around 80-84 wins. Obviously some teams will win 90 and others 70 as that's to be expected in a normal distribution.

At 60 games you have 100 left and could expect to win between 45-55 of those games. You might go on a hot streak and win 60-65 or you might just peter out and win 35-40 which is demoralizing.

The question is "why am I losing" and not "why am I 10 games back". You can't control the other team and they may be due to come back to the mean.

I would look at record in 1 run games, number of blown saves, number of quality starts, team ranking for defense efficiency and OPS. For SS, CF, and C I'm willing to except less offense for gold glove defense but I have to get production from the corners (1B, 3B, LF, RF). If my bullpen guys have a WHIP over 1.5 to 1.75 I'm looking to improve immediately.

I don't make big moves with Front Office before running through those questions.

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[CBL-Commish]

My rule of thumb is take the average fan who posts on a team messageboard, figure out how many days after opening day they start getting upset, and multiply that number of days by 10. That's how long a GM should hold out until making major changes.

[tejdog1]

Originally Posted by CBL-Commish

My rule of thumb is take the average fan who posts on a team messageboard, figure out how many days after opening day they start getting upset, and multiply that number of days by 10. That's how long a GM should hold out until making major changes.

Boy, that wouldn't work on Mets message boards.
Anything multiplied by 0 is 0.

[CBL-Commish]

Originally Posted by tejdog1

Boy, that wouldn't work on Mets message boards.
Anything multiplied by 0 is 0.

There are certainly Orioles fans who are upset in midwinter. And every day thereafter. But the mass of the fanbase usually holds back the pitchforks and torches until the middle of April.

[BBGiovanni]

Originally Posted by tejdog1

Boy, that wouldn't work on Mets message boards.
Anything multiplied by 0 is 0.

Ha, they usually win on Opening Day though so it's the following offday! But yes. For the OP, I'd say some;. pgjocki's answer is good, see if you can figure out one/some obvious problem. Is your bullpen/closer ruining lots of close games, do you have a lot of blown saves? Are the starting pitchers pooping out of games early and tiring your bullpen? Is some guy you expected to produce hitting really badly? I just don't look at stats at all for the first month or so, 100 AB for batters and 4-5 starts for SP. If something's obviously off, fix it. Fixing it need not be drastic either, like if one player in a platoon isn't hitting, maybe stop starting him. Or if one guy is bad in the middle of the lineup, move him down for a while. I tinker with my lineup almost every day for a particular game because someone's hot, or not. And sometimes all of your tinkering and genius doesn't matter because baseball. If you have a team in your division/league headed for 110 wins, sometime between Fathers' Day and the 4th of July I'd start planning for next year, whether that's dumping salary/tanking or just trying to trade for guys under contract for the next year or converting old minor leaguers into younger prospects.

[Violinguy]

Originally Posted by CBL-Commish

My rule of thumb is take the average fan who posts on a team messageboard, figure out how many days after opening day they start getting upset, and multiply that number of days by 10. That's how long a GM should hold out until making major changes.

LOL


I decided to stick with him for the season, and with a little push in the second half, we finished 10 under 500. Team ERA and pitching WAR were all in the top ten in MLB, but hitting was middle or bottom half for everything.



I fired both the manager and hitting coach and signed better guys. I also went out and signed and traded for a few high OPS guys in the off season. So far, we're 10-5 in the new season which is nice, but we have a long way to go.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by Violinguy

LOL


I decided to stick with him for the season, and with a little push in the second half, we finished 10 under 500. Team ERA and pitching WAR were all in the top ten in MLB, but hitting was middle or bottom half for everything.



I fired both the manager and hitting coach and signed better guys. I also went out and signed and traded for a few high OPS guys in the off season. So far, we're 10-5 in the new season which is nice, but we have a long way to go.

Ahh, the manager (and hitting coach) taking the fall for the GM not giving them good hitters

Art imitates life

[Violinguy]

As you know, @#$! runs downhill. I got people to answer to also. Of course, if those people gave me more money, things would be pretty different.

And, for the record, I drafted with hitting in mind, not pitching. 2 of my first 3 picks were position players with 60+ contact and high OBP. The team under-performed. Simple as that.