Help me pick a prospect

[BennyTheMarlin]

I thought I'd ask the boards' advice on a choice of prospects. I've been having trouble pulling the trigger all week.

My Marlins have been excellent for several seasons without a title. We're slightly down this year at the deadline, and I'm doing a slight reset to grab another prospect. I shopped a pretty good SP and got a bunch of great offers, finally narrowing things down to the two outfielders below.

I won't be rushing either to the majors, as my OF depth is good, but my starting RF will be leaving as a free agent this year, and my LF and CF are locked into those positions by their defensive skill sets. Whoever I pick up is probably the RF of the future.

Please give me your preference and reasoning. Then I can get that trophy!

[CBeisbol]

I don't love either one, but Graves

They look similar offensively with Graves projected for much more power

Graves is also better defensively, though not an ideal arm for right.

Base running is pretty much a wash

Personality - some minor concerns with Graves but nothing to scare me away from him

Lott is a bit more durable.

But, Graves all the way

[Questdog]

Only one of them is a right fielder and if that is what you want, then why the dilemma?

[damientheomen3]

As CB and QD said, Graves is the better player, Lott is the better right fielder. Graves seems to be progressing a bit faster as well, but I always get tempted by the durable players so I could see how it would be a tough call.

[BennyTheMarlin]

My hope is that Graves is still young and smart enough to learn RF, but the arm probably won't improve much. On the other hand, Lott is a clear RF but has pretty limited range that I worry could get worse.

Then, there's the ballpark, where I never moved fences in and is HR-unfriendly. This might negate the power difference slightly.

I usually go with best player available then trade later as needed, but I like both guys as MLB starters soon and RF is their spot for now.

See how easy it's been for me to overthink this?

[Westheim]

Graves is better, but arms don't get better, they just come off eventually. To be honest, I am not thrilled with either one.

[CBeisbol]

Originally Posted by BennyTheMarlin

My hope is that Graves is still young and smart enough to learn RF, but the arm probably won't improve much. On the other hand, Lott is a clear RF but has pretty limited range that I worry could get worse.

Graves should be able to learn right, yes. But, as others have said, the arm is unlikely to get better.

He's certainly playable in right, and probably a better overall fielder than LOTT

Then, there's the ballpark, where I never moved fences in and is HR-unfriendly. This might negate the power difference slightly.

If it's a big OF the range is probably even more important than arm

[Questdog]

Someone mentioned that I said Graves was better, but Lott was a right fielder. I never said Graves was better. I think Lott is better and would take him. He was a better prospect at Draft Time and there is no reason to think he is not still.

[BennyTheMarlin]

Thanks for all the input. I'm not much closer than before, but I've gone from leaning Graves this morning to possibly leaning Lott.

Two things that haven't been mentioned that favor Lott are:
#1 stats (OPS+, walks, steals are much better), and
#2 injury history. I didn't note it before, but Graves missed about a month each with torn ankle ligaments his first year and a broken hand in his 2nd.

I checked the OSA ratings, and they are about the same. The only main disagreement from them is they rate Lott's eye as a 7/7, instead of 9/12. Performance-wise, it looks like my scout has it right as Graves is the "swingier" of the two.

I will probably sleep on it one more night if anyone wants to give some last thoughts.

[ALB123]

Boy, this is a tough one. It's even tougher since I don't know the makeup of your MLB team. I'm leaning more toward Lott. Neither player looks like they'll be banging out home runs for you. My guess is they both will be slap hitters - singles & doubles primarily. Lott is a natural RF based on the defensive stats and he also has a cannon compared to Graves. Lott has a much better chance at throwing runners out at 3rd base & home plate. Lott is described as Durable while Graves is Normal, which is a little bit of a plus to me. Now, based on my conclusion that neither hitter will be hitting launching many bombs and probably won't even hit many deep flyballs for runners to tag up...I really like that Lott is described as a line-drive hitter with normal groundball tendencies. Graves, on the other hand, is a Flyball hitter with groundball tendencies to pull the ball. Seeing how Graves is a left-handed hitter (Lott is too) who pulls the ball often, he's probably going to face many shifted defensive alignments.

I want to throw out a personal belief of mine. I often find myself in quite similar circumstances with my prospects/younger players. Even though I preferred Lott in this particular scenario, let's say you already have both players. I would be playing Lott in left field, possibly for an entire season or more to establish himself as a player who can play either LF or RF. The amount of time always varies, but since he already has a LF defensive rating, he'll pick up LF in time. Obviously, just don't let his RF rating slip. The same goes from Graves only I'd be playing him in RF. If you can get a player like Graves to handle all three OF positions, he becomes a lot more valuable to you.

I employed this tactic about 4 years ago in my saved game because I acquired Ken Griffey Jr. in the draft and I had just traded for Bernie Williams months earlier. Both are CF. I decided Junior would be my CF in the Bigs, so I had Bernie in LF for 80% of his games and only 20% in CF. He didn't have any rating besides CF, same with Junior. Bernie is now rated a 70 CF and an 85 LF... I pulled off the deal of the century by trading Junior and a couple of young 2-star RPs for Barry Bonds. Bonds was a 70 CF and very low LF, but now Bonds has the same OF ratings as Bernie Williams. 70 CF & 85 LF.

Good luck.

[Questdog]

Originally Posted by ALB123

I pulled off the deal of the century by trading Junior and a couple of young 2-star RPs for Barry Bonds.

You, good sir, should be shot....

[CBeisbol]

All my players play all over the field in the low minors

Any OFer I have is going to play all 3 positions, no matter how unsuited they may be. You've got 4/10 range? You're seeing a week in CF.

And ALL of my CF types will have nearly full experience in the corners before they get to the bigs. That way, they're ready to be 4th or 5th OFers if they aren't good enough to start.

Same with IFers. Most players aren't going to be good enough to start and have a lot more chance to be backups, so they better know how to play a few positions.

[ALB123]

Originally Posted by Questdog

You, good sir, should be shot....

I knew someone was going to come at me for what I said. Honestly, I didn't think it was even going to be a possibility. Junior was still on his first contract with a couple of years left, so he cost peanuts. He's 5 years younger than Bonds, which was a very nice plus. For some reason, I panicked on Junior for a couple of reasons. He's had a few injuries in his short career that I wasn't thrilled about and he wasn't hitting the long ball at all. I planned on having Jr. hit 4th or 5th for a decade or more. In 1990, he batted 4th for me and he hit 10 HR. My team sucked in that department. In 1990 we hit 88 HR for the entire year!! Finally, we won our 2nd World Series with him missing the entire playoffs/WS due to a broken collarbone, so I didn't see him as being the cornerstone I hoped for. I know this is after 1 season in the Pros. I know...I know... All of what I'm saying is stupid based on such a short time in the Bigs... I agree. But my inner voice was telling me he wasn't going to be what I thought he would be. Then again, I do have a damaged melon so maybe I shouldn't listen to my inner voice.





I swear on the souls of my family, I proposed this trade to Seattle with absolutely no belief whatsoever that they would accept at all, let alone, straight up...



Notice that I still had Junior locked into LF at this point, so he could have a solid #2 position. Long term, he would be my CF & Bernie W. my LF.

How could I pass up this opportunity?

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

All my players play all over the field in the low minors

Any OFer I have is going to play all 3 positions, no matter how unsuited they may be. You've got 4/10 range? You're seeing a week in CF.

And ALL of my CF types will have nearly fill experience in the corners before they get to the boys. That way, they're ready to be 4th or 5th OFers if they aren't good enough to start.

Same with IFers. Most players aren't going to be good enough to start and have a lot more chance to be backups, so they better know how to play a few positions.

It's become mandatory for me too, with most positions.

I'm awful about this with three positions. Players who come to me only playing 3B, 1B and especially C. I need to fix this...Catchers will always be my lowest priority, but even getting them a 20-25 rating at 1B or LF/RF is better than nothing.

I started my GM career in 1981 and we are now in Spring Training 1992. This is the only player remaining from the 1981 team. His best days are long behind him and he bounces back to AAA occasionally due to age/performance, but I always activate him for Playoffs, if I make them. Ladies & Gentlemen, may I present the honorable Otis Nixon:

[BennyTheMarlin]

Thanks, everyone, for helping me clear my head on a very tough decision. Even with opinions basically split, your thoughts helped me see some new angles. Originally, I had the gut feeling I'd go with Graves. He has the power potential, OF range that Lott does not, and is further along. After way too much thought, I decided to trade for Lott instead.

Reasons:
1. Past performance. Lott's numbers exceed or compare equally with Graves', even in categories where Graves should have an advantage. Lott looks better overall and quite a bit on the basepaths, where things looked closer ratings-wise. This gives me an inkling that his intangibles bring more to the table as he develops.
2. Position. Looking up and down my org's depth chart, I realized having a RF mattered more than I first thought. I always value defense, and even being strong up the middle, I couldn't quite sign off on a RF with just a 9-strength arm.
3. Injury History. Graves had a couple of month-long injuries in two seasons. It could be no big deal, but word is Lott is built like a brickhouse.
4. Additional considerations. Already feeling Lott might be the guy, I started sniffing around greedily at other prospects. Though in no need of another young outfielder, my trading colleague said why not take along his top international prospect signing, 19 years young and nearly as frickin' good (see below). I said "Sure, and here's an impending-FA AAA slugger on a major league deal, simply because I like you." Deal complete.

Thanks again, everyone. I'll let you know how things work out down the road.

[THEMURPH]

Originally Posted by BennyTheMarlin

I thought I'd ask the boards' advice on a choice of prospects. I've been having trouble pulling the trigger all week.

My Marlins have been excellent for several seasons without a title. We're slightly down this year at the deadline, and I'm doing a slight reset to grab another prospect. I shopped a pretty good SP and got a bunch of great offers, finally narrowing things down to the two outfielders below.

I won't be rushing either to the majors, as my OF depth is good, but my starting RF will be leaving as a free agent this year, and my LF and CF are locked into those positions by their defensive skill sets. Whoever I pick up is probably the RF of the future.

Please give me your preference and reasoning. Then I can get that trophy!

I would go with Lott.
1. He is Durable.
2. He is a line drive hitter. Might just be me but seem to get better results out of them.
3. Seems to have a better personality class. Graves High greed, low leader and loyalty could lead to a selfish or disruptive rating.
4. Lott has the better arm.
5. Lott is not a pull hitter for ground balls.
6. Can bunt if necessary
7. Lott is putting up better WAR across his career. Had he gotten more playing time in his first year of Rookie ball he would be closer to being maxed out on his abilities.

[ExeR]

Originally Posted by BennyTheMarlin

Thanks, everyone, for helping me clear my head on a very tough decision.

Couple of things that weren't mentioned:
1) I wrote post in another thread about Speed & Stealing with screenshot of tests, you can check it out. 2nd player is 20of20 Speed, but it can actually be higher than 20. Limit is 25 (250 in editor) and if he happens to be speed demon you should've kept him. Other guy has to be close to 20 power to match his potential impact.
2) Hitting lineup is another key factor for choice like this. Runner will benefit from contact&line drivers following him. HR guy can be a hero in playoffs and be more versatile, but good runners can do wonders vs "elite hitters but mediocre defenders" teams. I won vs Dodgers like that one time, 3 losses by 7+ runs each (including 7-21), 4 wins by 5 runs combined.

[timmermac]

Honestly, I don't think I would have traded for either one. RF is supposed to be a powerhitting position, and neither of those guys look like they're going to develop the pop necessary to play there. This is why Atlanta's continuing to keep Markakis around annoys me.