1954 bobby thompson - help

[fredbeene]

Hi I have had fun simulating 1954 with various settings to see what things do and what i need to do to create my universe the way i want it.

Scenario:
1954 Milwaukee Braves have bobby Thompson. But the AI rarely plays him. I imported peak season potential. However, i assume he must have been injured and did not play much, down number in 1954 is what is driving this.

Want:
I want a universe that pulls in the peak potentials (so the stars all have a chance to still be stars). I exactly want to avoid the bobby thompson issue in 1954.....i don't want the players to have bad years because the next seasons are bad.
I just want the development engine to take over and have everyone have a chance of exceling or failing based on other factors.

Not sure what i should be doing different. Somehow try to turn off reallife stats after import of the player?

[David Watts]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

Hi I have had fun simulating 1954 with various settings to see what things do and what i need to do to create my universe the way i want it.

Scenario:
1954 Milwaukee Braves have bobby Thompson. But the AI rarely plays him. I imported peak season potential. However, i assume he must have been injured and did not play much, down number in 1954 is what is driving this.

Want:
I want a universe that pulls in the peak potentials (so the stars all have a chance to still be stars). I exactly want to avoid the bobby thompson issue in 1954.....i don't want the players to have bad years because the next seasons are bad.
I just want the development engine to take over and have everyone have a chance of exceling or failing based on other factors.

Not sure what i should be doing different. Somehow try to turn off reallife stats after import of the player?

Have you tried using 5 year recalc? I see Thompson only played in 43 games in 54,maybe the 4 years surrounding 54 will be enough to get Thompson in the lineup.

[thehef]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

bobby Thompson... i assume he must have been injured and did not play much

In his first spring training with the Braves, he broke his ankle and didn't return until mid-July. That he didn't play in the field until late-August suggests that he wasn't quite healthy when he returned. By the time he could play in the outfield, rookie Hank Aaron had shown that he had a little something, and there was no real room for Thomson.

For what you are trying to accomplish, 5-year recalc (as David Watts suggests) should smooth out the Thomson-like scenarios, and...

Originally Posted by fredbeene

I just want the development engine to take over and have everyone have a chance of exceling or failing based on other factors.

... setting Talent Change Randomness to a number well-above 100 should handle that ^^^.

I would suggest setting up a test league and not investing much time in the league itself, just letting run a year or two and see if it's generally giving you what you want. Make tweaks and test again, if necessary.

(Worth noting, though, is that regardless of re-calc, with TCR set to a high number your 1954 Thomson could be a beast, a bust, or anything in-between.)

Good luck!

[Reed]

Do you use recalc??? What is your weaken/adjust settings?

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by thehef

In his first spring training with the Braves, he broke his ankle and didn't return until mid-July. That he didn't play in the field until late-August suggests that he wasn't quite healthy when he returned. By the time he could play in the outfield, rookie Hank Aaron had shown that he had a little something, and there was no real room for Thomson.

For what you are trying to accomplish, 5-year recalc (as David Watts suggests) should smooth out the Thomson-like scenarios, and...



... setting Talent Change Randomness to a number well-above 100 should handle that ^^^.

I would suggest setting up a test league and not investing much time in the league itself, just letting run a year or two and see if it's generally giving you what you want. Make tweaks and test again, if necessary.

(Worth noting, though, is that regardless of re-calc, with TCR set to a high number your 1954 Thomson could be a beast, a bust, or anything in-between.)

Good luck!

Well - i have tried simming 10 times with setting suggested, and none of them seem to work.

I really feel something is not working as intended
Focusing on Bobby for examples sake.
1-100 scale
100% scouting accuracy
aging .05!!

The PEAK SEASONS POTENTIAL is not what I would expect.
The potential should be whatever the peak seasons were in his career.
He gets set at 29 contact, 40 power and other very low ratings.
His current ratings get matched exactly to the potential
(please note the potential matching current is true for almost every player for the replay...i would think it would only be true if was a players peak season)

Manually setting all his POTENTIAL ratings to 250, made no difference. The potential does not change under ratings.

Essentially he is a scrub till he retires.
Opposite of what i want....I want to do what ifs, like what if bobby didn't have an injury and continued on the path he was on.....teamed up with aaron, adcock, mathews .....could it be 30 homers per player and they win it?

I don't want to manually set players current ratings (which takes the fun out of it)

Can anyone try a couple sims focusing on 54 Bobby example?
Please skim player current to potential and see if it has any reality that over 80% all have the matching current to potential

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by Reed

Do you use recalc??? What is your weaken/adjust settings?

The one item i have not changed from default is the weaken adjust settings.
Mostly because if the potential isn't working, then this feels like it will complicated things more??

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by David Watts

Have you tried using 5 year recalc? I see Thompson only played in 43 games in 54,maybe the 4 years surrounding 54 will be enough to get Thompson in the lineup.

Perhaps defining the years a recalc does will help my expectations.

starting import of 1954, using 5 year recalc, what years are used?

I don't understand how to stop using real world stats after the initial season.
why wouldn't the recalc ignore real life stats going fw and only use the simulated game stats??
(the goal being to not try to replicate a season, but to have peak potentials and dev engine, randomness, determine the fate of the universe : )

[thehef]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

I don't understand how to stop using real world stats after the initial season... why wouldn't the recalc ignore real life stats going fw and only use the simulated game stats??

The answer is to turn off recalc. That's the purpose of recalc - to recalc player ratings based upon real stats after every season.

Originally Posted by fredbeene

(the goal being to not try to replicate a season, but to have peak potentials and dev engine, randomness, determine the fate of the universe : )

With recalc off, your Talent Randomness setting will determine how players develop. With that setting very low, you should expect players to generally stay the same-ish as their first season. With it very high, you should expect wide variations from reality.

I'll note that from time to time I like to do a 1975 replay to see if the Dodgers - had they been healthy - could've kept up with the Reds. Since I don't want to use a 3 or 5-year recalc (because I want the 1975 Big Red Machine to be the best-of-their-era Reds and not an average-of-their era team), I instead take, for players such as Bill Buckner, Bill Russell, Tommy John and a few others, the average of the 1974 and 1976 stats, and plug them in for 1975 to get what-if-they-were-healthy ratings for those guys.

Now if you're only talking Bobby Thomson and a few others here and there, that could work. If, instead, you're talking bunches of players, that might be unworkable.

[fredbeene]

Originally Posted by thehef

The answer is to turn off recalc. That's the purpose of recalc - to recalc player ratings based upon real stats after every season.



With recalc off, your Talent Randomness setting will determine how players develop. With that setting very low, you should expect players to generally stay the same-ish as their first season. With it very high, you should expect wide variations from reality.

I'll note that from time to time I like to do a 1975 replay to see if the Dodgers - had they been healthy - could've kept up with the Reds. Since I don't want to use a 3 or 5-year recalc (because I want the 1975 Big Red Machine to be the best-of-their-era Reds and not an average-of-their era team), I instead take, for players such as Bill Buckner, Bill Russell, Tommy John and a few others, the average of the 1974 and 1976 stats, and plug them in for 1975 to get what-if-they-were-healthy ratings for those guys.

Now if you're only talking Bobby Thomson and a few others here and there, that could work. If, instead, you're talking bunches of players, that might be unworkable.

Would you mind trying imorting 1954 with peak season potential.
100% scouting accuracy (or turn off)
commish mode
Check the braves
See if you can change potential of thomspon
See if you think hank aarons power potential is peak season

(or do the same thing for players you know well)

i run v 20 and 21 side by side and i only have issues in 21

[thehef]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

Would you mind trying imorting 1954 with peak season potential.
100% scouting accuracy (or turn off)
commish mode
Check the braves
See if you can change potential of thomspon
See if you think hank aarons power potential is peak season

(or do the same thing for players you know well)

i run v 20 and 21 side by side and i only have issues in 21

Sorry, I just saw this. I will try this as soon as I can and report back

[swampdragon]

You could delete 1954 Bobby Thomson and import 1953 Bobby Thomson.

[fredbeene]

The overall goal is do what ifs.
What if feller had todays medicine and could play longer
What if he never went to war
What if Bobby T (or any player) did not get injury that effected their career or ended it.
I am looking for a more of a global way.

Changing potential does nothing (25 sim attempts with changing power potential to 250 for 50 players made no discernable change to anyones career)
Changing aging .006 does nothing that i have been able to quantify.

Manually setting a players injury or health does work.

[Brad K]

When I first read this thread I thought the problem was Thomson had an uncharacteristically bad year in 1954 in the midst of an otherwise stellar career. Today I looked at the stats and find he didn't actually have a good year after 1953. Injury or not, it looks like the off the cliff at age 30 deal.

[fredbeene]

21 hr and .283 at age 34
after 30 sims of various options....there is no setting to get him ignore fall off the cliff

over 30, you are done......potential means nothingn.......the age dev at ridiculous low .0006 does nothing

[thehef]

Originally Posted by fredbeene

Would you mind trying imorting 1954 with peak season potential.
100% scouting accuracy (or turn off)
commish mode
Check the braves
See if you can change potential of thomspon
See if you think hank aarons power potential is peak season

(or do the same thing for players you know well)

i run v 20 and 21 side by side and i only have issues in 21

OK, I did a 1954 historical season in replay mode. Basically the settings you said above and turned off scouting. I used 5-year recalc. Development off. No changes to Thomson's ratings.

During the first couple months of the season he didn't play much because the Aaron-Bruton-Pafko starting outfield was a pretty strong one. So I edited Pafko to where he had a season-ending injury, and that put Thomson in the lineup, batting 8th most of the time.

As a little-used backup thru the end of May, he was hitting .333 but in just 18 AB's... At the beginning of June he moved to the starting lineup (in place of Pafko) and started hot but was batting under .200 by June 20th, then got hot and ended June at .267... He was bothered by a nagging rib injury and was day-to-day most of the rest of the season. He finished the season as with the following stats:

127 games (108 starts), 393 AB's, 51 runs, 91 hits, 9 2b, 9 3b, 14 HR, 57 rbi.
.232 avg, .296 obp, .407 slg, .703 ops, .02 war

For kicks, I ran the sim thru the end of '55. No changes. For whatever reason, he played much more than Pafko. His stats:

149 games, 589 ab's, 123 hits, 15 hr, 53 rbi, .227 avg

He started the season pretty hot, hitting .316 in April, but it was downhnill from there: .265 & .264 in May & June, and was then below .190 in each of July, Aug, & Sept.

Aaron, btw:
1954: .310, 20 hr, 96 rbi
1955: .322, 37 hr, 113 rbi

Based upon the five-years recal period, I would've expected his numbers to be a bit better, but not dramatically so. And this was only one test, so who knows...?

[Brad K]

I feel your pain Fred. No matter what I do I can't get a .300 BA out of Mario Mendoza.

[David Watts]

One thing you xould do that might make a difference with Thomson is to change or get rid of altogether to make bad settings. I created 1952 with recalc off and was surprised to see Ted Williams on the Bench for the Red Sox. Ted only had 6 at bats in 52, so his being on the bench is definitely make bad related. Williams is rated 3 stars real and potential. Then I created 52 again with zero make bad settings and he turned into a 5 star player and was hitting cleanup for the Sox. Of course, no make bad setting could have other side effects, but I thought I would mention it, because it might work for Thomson as well.

[Brad K]

David, not sure Fred is paying attention to this. Back on Sept 18 he posted that he'd stopped playing due to the necessity of too many hand edits.