Are there fewer wild pitches when a runner is on 3rd?

brotherblues · 11-20-2020, 06:34 PM

Question: In real life, is there a statistical dropoff in wild pitches when there is a runner on 3rd? (due to hypothetically pitchers being more careful)

If so, does OOTP take that into account?

RchW · 11-20-2020, 06:59 PM

Check on BR to see if they have that data.

CBeisbol · 11-20-2020, 08:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

Check on BR to see if they have that data.

I checked, briefly. It wasn't in the pitching splits page

Maybe one can find it with the play index

RchW · 11-20-2020, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBeisbol

I checked, briefly. It wasn't in the pitching splits page

Maybe one can find it with the play index

There is a baserunning table that shows BT bases taken. Unfortunately it's not broken out enough; certainly not by base occupied.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...-batting.shtml

Edit
hmmm play index may work. Does it have more detail?

Garlon · 11-22-2020, 05:46 AM

There seems to be a disproportionate amount of wild pitches when third base is occupied when playing out games.

CBeisbol · 11-22-2020, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

There is a baserunning table that shows BT bases taken. Unfortunately it's not broken out enough; certainly not by base occupied.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...-batting.shtml

Edit
hmmm play index may work. Does it have more detail?

Play Index has apparently been replaced by Stathead.
https://stathead.com/baseball/index.cgi
Both require(d) a subscription which so no longer pay for.

There is a free month if anyone wants to check it out.

Play Index was extremely cool, and allowed access to a lot of information. Like, I'm pretty sure, how many wild pitches occurred with runners on different bases.

RchW · 11-26-2020, 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

There seems to be a disproportionate amount of wild pitches when third base is occupied when playing out games.

How do you reach that conclusion?

Garlon · 11-26-2020, 10:04 AM

From playing entire seasons. Reaching first is of course much more common than reaching third yet it seems that so many PB and WP occur when someone is on third rather than when they are on first. This is just an observation but I did not try to collect data regarding this. Maybe there is nothing wrong but something seems not right about the distribution when playing out the games.

BirdWatcher · 11-26-2020, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garlon

From playing entire seasons. Reaching first is of course much more common than reaching third yet it seems that so many PB and WP occur when someone is on third rather than when they are on first. This is just an observation but I did not try to collect data regarding this. Maybe there is nothing wrong but something seems not right about the distribution when playing out the games.

This does seem like the sort of thing where the gathering of data would be key. I entirely respect your greater experience and knowledge of this game. My own experience, playing out every game for my fictional team over the course of many seasons, has not created this impression in my mind.
But what I think is true isn't conclusive evidence. I think because these sorts of events have such outsized impacts and are more frustrating for us than some other outcomes (like an opposition player hitting a home run with a runner on third base- more damaging of course than a wild pitch, but feels much like less self-inflicted wounds) we may perceive them in a way that becomes magnified in our minds.
Now, as I've said in other threads here on the forums, these concerns seem to be voiced very often here. So there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that many people agree with your perception about this. And given that, all the more reason that a more evidence-based approach needs to be taken, so that if there really is a problem it can be fixed.
But until such time that more conclusive, measurable, and replicable data can be found to support these claims, I remain very skeptical that this is anything more than a perception bias, not a real issue with the game engine.

Brad K · 11-29-2020, 07:34 PM

Actually there aren't any WP or PB when no one is on base. Yes, they don't get counted as a WP or PB, but they should still occur when playing games out. It might be that never seeing a ball get away with no one on base skews a persons view that the ball gets away too often when men on base.

CBeisbol · 11-29-2020, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad

It might be that never seeing a ball get away with no one on base skews a persons view that the ball gets away too often when men on base.

This is an excellent point

11-20-2020, 06:34 PM	#1
brotherblues All Star Reserve Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 658	Are there fewer wild pitches when a runner is on 3rd? Question: In real life, is there a statistical dropoff in wild pitches when there is a runner on 3rd? (due to hypothetically pitchers being more careful) If so, does OOTP take that into account?

11-20-2020, 06:59 PM	#2
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	Check on BR to see if they have that data. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

11-22-2020, 05:46 AM	#5
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,166	There seems to be a disproportionate amount of wild pitches when third base is occupied when playing out games.

11-26-2020, 10:04 AM	#8
Garlon Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,166	From playing entire seasons. Reaching first is of course much more common than reaching third yet it seems that so many PB and WP occur when someone is on third rather than when they are on first. This is just an observation but I did not try to collect data regarding this. Maybe there is nothing wrong but something seems not right about the distribution when playing out the games.

11-29-2020, 07:34 PM	#10
Brad K Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2016 Location: St Petersburg Florida USA Posts: 6,386	Actually there aren't any WP or PB when no one is on base. Yes, they don't get counted as a WP or PB, but they should still occur when playing games out. It might be that never seeing a ball get away with no one on base skews a persons view that the ball gets away too often when men on base.