Projected Role: Anyone know what factors into the recommendation?

koohead · 02-15-2021, 01:59 PM

I know these recommendations are just that...the AI suggestion, but I'm having trouble understanding what the AI looks at to decide if the projected role should be a SP, borderline SP, or some version of RP (closer, bullpen, strictly bullpen). For example, here are 2 pitchers who seem similar to me.

Pitcher 1 is a 25 year old pitcher who the AI says has a projected role of SP.
Pitcher 2 is a 26 year old pitcher who the AI says has a projected role of strictly bullpen.

I don't see the difference other than the quality of the 3 pitches?? And even then, the quality doesn't seem 'that' different to have such a different projection.

thoughts?

RchW · 02-15-2021, 02:43 PM

Are those ratings potential only? If so, show act/pot ratings together and the logic may be more apparent.

Matt Arnold · 02-15-2021, 03:06 PM

Projected role I believe only displays for players 25 and under. I'm guessing the second guy has a changeup that isn't developed yet, so the role only lists based on his current talent. The first guy still assumes that the changeup might still develop, hence the SP projection.

koohead · 02-15-2021, 05:20 PM

Hadn't considered Current/Actual ratings. Would make sense. though...now looking at it, still kind of confused.
Here are the 2 same pitchers with current ratings enabled. Pitcher 1 clearly has not reached potential with his change. so I guess because he's only 25 the AI assumes he has room to grow and has him as a future SP? While Pitcher 2, also having some room to grow with his split, is 26 and the AI assumes done developing? What's weird is both pitchers have equal primary pitches, pitcher 1 currently has a superior second pitch while pitcher 2 has 2 above average secondary pitches (and slightly better stamina)...yet he's strictly bullpen. just don't know. I should really stop trying to understand this.

RchW · 02-15-2021, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by koohead

Hadn't considered Current/Actual ratings. Would make sense. though...now looking at it, still kind of confused.
Here are the 2 same pitchers with current ratings enabled. Pitcher 1 clearly has not reached potential with his change. so I guess because he's only 25 the AI assumes he has room to grow and has him as a future SP? While Pitcher 2, also having some room to grow with his split, is 26 and the AI assumes done developing? What's weird is both pitchers have equal primary pitches, pitcher 1 currently has a superior second pitch while pitcher 2 has 2 above average secondary pitches (and slightly better stamina)...yet he's strictly bullpen. just don't know. I should really stop trying to understand this.

I think this does clarify. On the left the third pitch becoming fully developed cinches the SP projection even if it falls short of 75. On the right even if pitch 2 and 3 fully develop he is a one trick pony that batters can wait on; hence his best use is as a mid/late inning RP in short stints.

In theory and in OOTP you can start a guy with two dominant ie maxed out pitches,but every rating must be high for that to work.

koohead · 02-15-2021, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

I think this does clarify. On the left the third pitch becoming fully developed cinches the SP projection even if it falls short of 75. On the right even if pitch 2 and 3 fully develop he is a one trick pony that batters can wait on; hence his best use is as a mid/late inning RP in short stints.

In theory and in OOTP you can start a guy with two dominant ie maxed out pitches,but every rating must be high for that to work.

gotcha...so OOTP is looking for at least 2 "dominant" pitches to be considered a viable SP...not necessarily the number of viable pitches. I can buy that.

luckymann · 02-16-2021, 06:17 PM

The other section to watch is this one - TEAM POSITION RANKINGS - which can be customised into your team's home page.

Often I have had a reliever who I'd never had an inkling could be a starter appear on this list as the team's best SP. Not always, but more often than not, they turn out really well in the rotation.

02-15-2021, 01:59 PM	#1
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,196	Projected Role: Anyone know what factors into the recommendation? I know these recommendations are just that...the AI suggestion, but I'm having trouble understanding what the AI looks at to decide if the projected role should be a SP, borderline SP, or some version of RP (closer, bullpen, strictly bullpen). For example, here are 2 pitchers who seem similar to me. Pitcher 1 is a 25 year old pitcher who the AI says has a projected role of SP. Pitcher 2 is a 26 year old pitcher who the AI says has a projected role of strictly bullpen. I don't see the difference other than the quality of the 3 pitches?? And even then, the quality doesn't seem 'that' different to have such a different projection. thoughts? Attached Images __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

02-15-2021, 02:43 PM	#2
RchW Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Toronto ON by way of Glasgow UK Posts: 15,629	Are those ratings potential only? If so, show act/pot ratings together and the logic may be more apparent. __________________ Cheers RichW If you’re looking for a good cause to donate money to please consider a Donation to Parkinson’s Canada. It may help me have a better future and if not me, someone else. Thanks. “Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition …There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.” Frank Wilhoit

02-15-2021, 05:20 PM	#4
koohead Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 3,196	Hadn't considered Current/Actual ratings. Would make sense. though...now looking at it, still kind of confused. Here are the 2 same pitchers with current ratings enabled. Pitcher 1 clearly has not reached potential with his change. so I guess because he's only 25 the AI assumes he has room to grow and has him as a future SP? While Pitcher 2, also having some room to grow with his split, is 26 and the AI assumes done developing? What's weird is both pitchers have equal primary pitches, pitcher 1 currently has a superior second pitch while pitcher 2 has 2 above average secondary pitches (and slightly better stamina)...yet he's strictly bullpen. just don't know. I should really stop trying to understand this. Attached Images __________________ GM - New Jersey Bears of the NPBL;

02-16-2021, 06:17 PM	#7
luckymann Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 13,056	The other section to watch is this one - TEAM POSITION RANKINGS - which can be customised into your team's home page. Often I have had a reliever who I'd never had an inkling could be a starter appear on this list as the team's best SP. Not always, but more often than not, they turn out really well in the rotation. Attached Images __________________ HISTORICAL DO-OVERS A'S RED SOX DODGERS CUSTOM SAVES ECLIPSE LEAGUE MOON SHOT LEAGUE EVERYMAN LEAGUE GULF LEAGUE USBA

02-15-2021, 03:06 PM	#3
Matt Arnold OOTP Developer Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Here and there Posts: 15,721	Projected role I believe only displays for players 25 and under. I'm guessing the second guy has a changeup that isn't developed yet, so the role only lists based on his current talent. The first guy still assumes that the changeup might still develop, hence the SP projection.