Home ice advantage

seven · 12-26-2021, 08:12 PM

I think there was an earlier entry regarding home ice advantage not showing up in NHL simulations. I checked my current NHL simulation (2021-22) which is now at Dec. 26 (each team has played about 32 games). The results show 249 home wins in 522 games, which is less than half. Currently, the actual NHL results show home teams winning 55.8% of the games.

As an additional check, I looked at the results of my simulated AHL season, which shows 219 home team wins in 404 games so far (54.2%). Using a statistical test (chi-square), this advantage in the AHL is not significant. The actual NHL home ice advantage this year is significant by this test, but my simulated NHL advantage for road teams is not significant.

In sum, it looks like home ice advantage should be tweaked.

JeffR · 12-26-2021, 08:47 PM

Is that with the 2D engine playing all the league games? Looks like something might be a little off with the home advantage in that one.

seven · 12-27-2021, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeffR

Is that with the 2D engine playing all the league games? Looks like something might be a little off with the home advantage in that one.

The NHL result is a mix, with mostly 2D games and a minority simmed. For the AHL, it was all simmed. Maybe that's a clue, given the difference between the two.

12-26-2021, 08:12 PM	#1
seven All Star Reserve Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Victoria, Canada Posts: 612	Home ice advantage I think there was an earlier entry regarding home ice advantage not showing up in NHL simulations. I checked my current NHL simulation (2021-22) which is now at Dec. 26 (each team has played about 32 games). The results show 249 home wins in 522 games, which is less than half. Currently, the actual NHL results show home teams winning 55.8% of the games. As an additional check, I looked at the results of my simulated AHL season, which shows 219 home team wins in 404 games so far (54.2%). Using a statistical test (chi-square), this advantage in the AHL is not significant. The actual NHL home ice advantage this year is significant by this test, but my simulated NHL advantage for road teams is not significant. In sum, it looks like home ice advantage should be tweaked.

12-26-2021, 08:47 PM	#2
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 17,253	Is that with the 2D engine playing all the league games? Looks like something might be a little off with the home advantage in that one.