Power Question

[wblake10]

All other things equal, which player would hit more HR?

Player 1: Contact 100, Power 100
Player 2: Contact 100, Power 150

I wonder if it's actually Player 1, since they would make good contact more, and still have a high HR%. Player 2 will make good contact far less, but when he does, he'll hit more HR.

[Clavette]

Would avoid K also matter in this equation?

[ncap99]

The fact this is even a question shows how goofed up the contact rating calculation is.

[wblake10]

Originally Posted by ncap99

The fact this is even a question shows how goofed up the contact rating calculation is.

I sometimes wish they just displayed the hidden BABIP rating, instead of Contact. Then just let us assess a player's ability to make quality contact (i.e., "Contact", as it is today) by also reviewing Power and Avoid K.

Originally Posted by Clavette

Would avoid K also matter in this equation?

For sure, but let's say both players have Avoid K = 80. So they avoid strikeouts at a fairly strong rate, but it's not the driving force behind their "Contact" rating (so they have good BABIP).

[ncap99]

The problem is 80 is actually a terrible AvoidK rating. It isn't like someone with 100 AvoidK will strike out 25% less than someone with 80. AvoidK by itself is just a frustrating stat.

Power factors directly into contact, so in increase in power is effectively a decrease in batting average because a larger percentage of contact is derived from power.

Once you understand how it works you can build around it, but it is just a very frustrating number for most players. Using the example above, assuming both have decent avoidK, identical hitting profiles (i.e. line drive spray hitters or whatever), bat from the same side and have identical defensive positions and ratings - it is a near guarantee that the player with LESS power will produce higher WAR on average.

To me having a stat presented as a positive that actually can have severely negative effects is counterintuitive and confusing. There is a reason Babe Ruth bats .250-.260 with the highest contact rating in the game. Not saying he is a bad player just that if you were a first time player looking at ratings you'd think he would hit for a high average based on the fact his contact rating is literally the highest in the game. There is nothing the game does to indicate that because of his enormous power ratings, his under the hood hidden numbers will drastically effect his performance will pull his average down a ton. Or that those hidden ratings even exist.

[wblake10]

Originally Posted by ncap99

The problem is 80 is actually a terrible AvoidK rating. It isn't like someone with 100 AvoidK will strike out 25% less than someone with 80. AvoidK by itself is just a frustrating stat.

Power factors directly into contact, so in increase in power is effectively a decrease in batting average because a larger percentage of contact is derived from power.

Once you understand how it works you can build around it, but it is just a very frustrating number for most players. Using the example above, assuming both have decent avoidK, identical hitting profiles (i.e. line drive spray hitters or whatever), bat from the same side and have identical defensive positions and ratings - it is a near guarantee that the player with LESS power will produce higher WAR on average.

To me having a stat presented as a positive that actually can have severely negative effects is counterintuitive and confusing. There is a reason Babe Ruth bats .250-.260 with the highest contact rating in the game. Not saying he is a bad player just that if you were a first time player looking at ratings you'd think he would hit for a high average based on the fact his contact rating is literally the highest in the game. There is nothing the game does to indicate that because of his enormous power ratings, his under the hood hidden numbers will drastically effect his performance will pull his average down a ton. Or that those hidden ratings even exist.

Thanks! Totally tracking and in agreement. So considering those ideas, who do you think hits more HR over the long run?

[ncap99]

Originally Posted by wblake10

Thanks! Totally tracking and in agreement. So considering those ideas, who do you think hits more HR over the long run?

I think the 150 power will still hit more HRs in the same amount of plate appearances. However, I the 100 power player will have a higher offensive WAR.

Some of it is league dependent because of how stats are normalized, so you may see different results depending on luck of the draw.

I looked through my roster to find as close comparisons to that scenario as I could and this is what I came up with:

Willy Mays: 30 HRs in 705 PAs for me in diamond (about 24 PAs per HR). 162 power vL, 133 power vR, but far more ABs against lefties.110 contact vL, 104 contact vR. Right about 90 avoidK. Batting average of .232 in those PAs.

Mike Trout: 150 HRs in 5908 PAs for me in diamond (about 40 PAs per HR). About 120 contact/100 power. AvoidK 84. .257 batting average in those PAs.

It is a pretty flawed comparison but the best I could find.