What happened to my MVP

[rink23]

When I drafted first baseman Nick Shaw with the 26th pick of the first round of the 2027 MBL draft, I had high hopes.
They paid off, installed as my starting first baseman during the 2032 season he did nothing but improve and put up huge numbers.
That peaked in 2036 when he won the NL MVP for a season where he hit .374 with 30 homers, 106 RBIs and a 7.6 WAR. He only played 122 games because of a three-week long injury.
In the offseason before the 2037 season, he was awarded an eight-year deal worth $28 million.
I felt confident, as there were no signs he was greedy or any of those things where he might half-butt it after getting a big contract.
His April of 2037 showed that, he hit .291 with eight homers and 31 RBIs, and that was a mediocre final week from what I remember.
But after that, he was just another first baseman.
He ended up the season hitting .296 with 26 homers and 105 RBIs.
Nice numbers, but below what he had achieved in 24 fewer games the previous season.
Now, seven games into the 2038 season, he is hitting .174 with no homers and one RBI.
I am certainly not getting, what I paid for my investment.
His scouting numbers have remained steady. There have been no warning signs about greed or unmotivated.
What changed Nick Shaw from the best first baseman in the MBL into a guy who make you wonder if some changes need to be made?
IE, platoon, moving him down in the order, since no one is going to take that contract.

[Reed]

Trade him now while someone still thinks he has value.
The .374 average was probably an outlier. I would expect his normal to be between about .300 and .325.. 7 games (23 AB) is an extremely small sample size for this year and would not even consider it.

[rink23]

Not really looking at the start of the 2038 season, outside of a continuation of how the final few months of the previous season went.
For his first four seasons, this guy was money especially with runners on base.
This is a franchise that goes back to 2018, and he was the best "clutch" hitter I have ever had.
And while you really need to watch him from day to day (I play out every game), since May of 2037, the pop in his bat seems to be gone and the bigger the situation, the more likely it would be he would strike out.
His first few seasons, it gave me great pleasure when teams would let him bat with runners on base because he was a sure thing.
I would hate to deal him. I have a special appreciation for players I have brought up through my system.
It might be my Achilles' Heel.

[MathBandit]

There's no such thing as a player better in 'clutch' situations, both in the game and in real life.

Due to the way variance and randomness works, there are players who in the past *have* performed either better or worse than normal in clutch situations, but that has zero predictive value on how they will perform in clutch situations in the future.

[Syd Thrift]

Two things though:

1. IIRC there is a very small, almost impossible to pull from the noise “clutch” effect that some hitters appear to have. It’s certainly not anywhere near as pronounced as baseball heads said it was as late as the early 2000s (reading the old Scouting Report books, practically every player who got a lot of RBIs is referred to as “good in the clutch”), and it’s no basis to choose players to hit cleanup for you unless they’re literally even statistically, but ISTR it existing.

2. There is a very small, randomly assigned, hidden clutch rating in OOTP, or at least there was several years ago and I don’t think it was ever dropped. It’s also so small that nobody’s noticed it, and Markus himself said it provided a tiny modifier.

[rink23]

The reason I put "clutch" in parenthesis in the original post, is due to the discussion of if there really is a thing as a clutch player.
What I meant, is that Shaw through his first four seasons was the player I wanted at the plate in a key situation because of his propensity to come through more often than others.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by rink23

The reason I put "clutch" in parenthesis in the original post, is due to the discussion of if there really is a thing as a clutch player.
What I meant, is that Shaw through his first four seasons was the player I wanted at the plate in a key situation because of his propensity to come through more often than others.

Either he came through more often than others because he was just a better hitter than others, or the fact he happened to hit well in key situations was literally just random luck though with no bearing on if he will continue to be that lucky in the future.

Among the 100 worst 'Clutch' hitters in MLB history are: Adrian Beltre, Manny Ramirez, Chipper Jones. David Ortiz? Worse than normal in clutch situations. Derek Jeter? About the same in clutch situations as otherwise. For pitching, Greg Maddux, Nolan Ryan, and Curt Shilling are among the 100 worst 'Clutch' pitchers in MLB history. Mariano Rivera barely escapes the top-100 and is 111th-worst.

Our brains like to add meaning to patterns we see in statistical randomness even when its just, well, random. And then, as is the case with many of the players I listed above, we over-emphasize several good moments to trick our brains into thinking they were good in the clutch when in fact the opposite is true.

[Francoeurstein]

7 games is almost useless to judge anybody. Give him like 200 plate appearances before you write him off. Plus, a .374 BA is unsustainable, so his true talent level is likely closer to all of those other seasons.

[CrunchyFr0g]

That 2037 season, although slightly down, is still a really good season and well within the range of what a superstar 1B's career numbers could look like.
As others have said, the 7 games of this season don't mean anything yet.
There's no sign of irreversible decline.
Send him out every day this year. There's every chance he hits over .300 with 30+ homers and 100+ ribbies.

[rink23]

Well, it took awhile but Mr. Shaw has started to turn it around.
Maybe it was the threat to send him to AAA. He refused to go.
Maybe it was shopping him around, no one bit for the full value of his contract.
Either way, he hit .391 (9 for 27) last week with one homer and two RBIs.
It was his first homer of the season.
In three games, this week he is 6 for 12 with another homer and three RBIs.
The power isn't quite back, but at least he is back to being a viable threat in the lineup.
As an aside, I never expected Shaw to hit .375 again. But I was hoping something more along the lines of his first three full seasons were within his grasp.