No respect for the catman

[Drivehud.com]

I hate asking these questions, but this one is such a head scratcher, that I need someone from development to explain please.

How is Tony Gonsolin still sitting at a 77? Can you explain these ratings a little better please? I'd appreciate it. Did all the cards not get updated?

I mean the guy is leading the majors in just about every pitching category you can think of, and has a CAREER ERA of 2.37, WHIP .99.

He's 10-0 w/ a 1.54 ERA, .82 WHIP in ~82 innings and he's a 77 ??!?

I can't wrap my mind around it.

[Matt Arnold]

0.186 BABIP and 91.4% LOB%. Generally speaking, FIP is a better predictor of card values, and while his 3.30 is still very good, there's really nothing in the current pitching model to account for the tremendous luck he's had on balls in play.

[Drivehud.com]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

0.186 BABIP and 91.4% LOB%. Generally speaking, FIP is a better predictor of card values, and while his 3.30 is still very good, there's really nothing in the current pitching model to account for the tremendous luck he's had on balls in play.

It's called a nasty splitter.

I understand FIP is a better predictor in your model, but there's a reason for the low BABIP and all the weak contact throughout his entire career. Maybe some of these stats help:

Hardhit%: 30.4!
GB%: 41.7%
Gb/FB: .72

Nobody has that much sustained "luck", but if those are the indicators you go on, thanks for the explanation. It's lame imho, but...

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by Drivehud.com

It's called a nasty splitter.

I understand FIP is a better predictor in your model, but there's a reason for the low BABIP and all the weak contact throughout his entire career. Maybe some of these stats help:

Hardhit%: 30.4!
GB%: 41.7%
Gb/FB: .72

Nobody has that much sustained "luck", but if those are the indicators you go on, thanks for the explanation. It's lame imho, but...

Yeah, his career BABIP is .220. It's not like this is some big anomaly.

[professor ape]

While I agree that there are pitchers with characteristics that can at least somewhat influence BABIP, you would be surprised at how much the law of averages takes over. Note that Gonsolin has faced less than 900 batters in his career. That is still a relatively low sample and gives a lot of room for regression towards the mean.
…or maybe he can keep up his run.

[TwanLX2000]

Just to play devil's advocate (because I don't stay up to watch the Dodgers that often), I'm sure a heavy ground ball pitcher isn't hurt by the stellar defense that plays behind him -- ranked between 2nd and 5th depending on the metric. 2/3 of their lineup add much better than positive defensive value, and that includes all the positions up the middle. That's what FIP is designed to do: predict how many runs Gonsolin would earn if he didn't have the benefit of defensive runs saved. He has the highest walk rate in the Dodgers' front four (five if you consider a healthy Buehler) and likewise the worst K/BB ratio among them. Consider that his sample size has only played in front of this defense, so the sustainable nature of his BABIP has not been entirely tested.

I think it makes sense to consider these stats heavier in PT, because he's not going to be playing in front of that defense every day. And if he does, the card plays like it should. The number on the card is just a number unless we're trying to flip it; the individual pitching ratings are exactly where they should be.

[Drivehud.com]

Originally Posted by professor ape

While I agree that there are pitchers with characteristics that can at least somewhat influence BABIP, you would be surprised at how much the law of averages takes over. Note that Gonsolin has faced less than 900 batters in his career. That is still a relatively low sample and gives a lot of room for regression towards the mean.
…or maybe he can keep up his run.

Yeah, for sure... but it's not like his FIP is even bad. And like he said, there's just limited things their model is looking at. There's a lot of pitchers who give up hits, but then completely buckle down when runners are on. There's no way to account for that, and Gonsolin is that type of pitcher as well, just to complicate it more.

Any ways, it's just a game, but if you watched him pitch you'd know the numbers aren't an accident, and a 77 rating for someone who is likely starting the all-star game is a little lol.

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by TwanLX2000

Just to play devil's advocate (because I don't stay up to watch the Dodgers that often), I'm sure a heavy ground ball pitcher isn't hurt by the stellar defense that plays behind him -- ranked between 2nd and 5th depending on the metric. 2/3 of their lineup add much better than positive defensive value, and that includes all the positions up the middle. That's what FIP is designed to do: predict how many runs Gonsolin would earn if he didn't have the benefit of defensive runs saved. He has the highest walk rate in the Dodgers' front four (five if you consider a healthy Buehler) and likewise the worst K/BB ratio among them. Consider that his sample size has only played in front of this defense, so the sustainable nature of his BABIP has not been entirely tested.

I think it makes sense to consider these stats heavier in PT, because he's not going to be playing in front of that defense every day. And if he does, the card plays like it should. The number on the card is just a number unless we're trying to flip it; the individual pitching ratings are exactly where they should be.

So what you're saying is...

"Introducing NL CY Young Winner, 77 Overall, Tony Gonslin!"

Doesn't something just sound really wrong there. Let's say he finishes the season 20-0 with a 1.5 ERA - if his walk/K rates stay the same with low BAPIP, he should be a 77 overall still, right? Or will they magically lift his rating to 100 like Shohei's despite the same numbers? LOL.

[TwanLX2000]

Originally Posted by HondoLane

So what you're saying is...

"Introducing NL CY Young Winner, 77 Overall, Tony Gonslin!"

Doesn't something just sound really wrong there. Let's say he finishes the season 20-0 with a 1.5 ERA - if his walk/K rates stay the same with low BAPIP, he should be a 77 overall still, right? Or will they magically lift his rating to 100 like Shohei's despite the same numbers? LOL.

Like I said, playing devil's advocate... all I was implying is that NL Cy Young Winner Tony Gonsolin would likely not be AL Cy Young Winner Tony Gonsolin if he pitched in front of my God-awful White Sox infield this year -- whereas reigning AL POTM Dylan Cease is that pitcher DESPITE his horrible defense and worse walk rate, which is why his FIP (and PT overall rating) are better.

The great thing is that Gonsolin doesn't have to give the stats back. If he has a premier career with historically low BABIP and win%, he can make the HOF with a better case than Jack Morris, who had a better career BABIP than Maddux or Clemens.

That's where the 77 comes in; we get worked up about overall ratings, but it has no bearing on how a card plays.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by HondoLane

So what you're saying is...

"Introducing NL CY Young Winner, 77 Overall, Tony Gonslin!"

Doesn't something just sound really wrong there. Let's say he finishes the season 20-0 with a 1.5 ERA - if his walk/K rates stay the same with low BAPIP, he should be a 77 overall still, right? Or will they magically lift his rating to 100 like Shohei's despite the same numbers? LOL.

Depends what the relevant numbers are, I would suspect. Wins and ERA are outdated and neither really provides significant insight into a pitcher's performance.

[Matt Arnold]

It would be nice if guys like Gonsolin this year (or Ray last year) were rated better. It's just a limitation of the current pitching model that we use, where stuff like balls in play are almost completely out of control of the pitcher.

Is that true in real life always? No, not really. Someday I'm sure we'll refine the current pitching model to find a way to better represent the guys like Maddux or Morris or Rivera or guys who can obviously show a long-term ability to beat the league in BABIP. But without that, guys only really get carded based on the stats that go into the Stuff/Movement/Control framework, and that's going to hurt a guy who can beat that and pitch better than those numbers.

[HondoLane]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

It would be nice if guys like Gonsolin this year (or Ray last year) were rated better. It's just a limitation of the current pitching model that we use, where stuff like balls in play are almost completely out of control of the pitcher.

Is that true in real life always? No, not really. Someday I'm sure we'll refine the current pitching model to find a way to better represent the guys like Maddux or Morris or Rivera or guys who can obviously show a long-term ability to beat the league in BABIP. But without that, guys only really get carded based on the stats that go into the Stuff/Movement/Control framework, and that's going to hurt a guy who can beat that and pitch better than those numbers.

Thanks, Matt. I appreciate this response; reasonable and understandable.

[MathBandit]

Originally Posted by Matt Arnold

It would be nice if guys like Gonsolin this year (or Ray last year) were rated better. It's just a limitation of the current pitching model that we use, where stuff like balls in play are almost completely out of control of the pitcher.

Is that true in real life always? No, not really. Someday I'm sure we'll refine the current pitching model to find a way to better represent the guys like Maddux or Morris or Rivera or guys who can obviously show a long-term ability to beat the league in BABIP. But without that, guys only really get carded based on the stats that go into the Stuff/Movement/Control framework, and that's going to hurt a guy who can beat that and pitch better than those numbers.

I would also caution people in general to assume that *any* pitcher will fall into that Maddux/Rivera category, no matter how good they look over even one or two years.

Ray is actually a great example of that; his underlying numbers this year aren't all that different from last year (slightly lower K%, similar BB%, lower HR/9, BABIP is even lower than last year), but the 'surface' results like ERA paint a picture more in line with what those underlying numbers suggest - in large part since his obscene LOB% of over 90 from last year has come back down to Earth.

It's the same argument I tend to have with a lot of Blue Jays fans. Manoah has been great this year, and his 9-3 record and 2.33 ERA (both even better than that before last night) are flashy - but Gausman has been the *much* better pitcher in 2022.