Drop in K/9IP in fictional league something to worry about?

[highandoutside]

I have a long running fictional league that I've played out every game for my team since 2007. I am just starting May and league-wide strikeouts are significantly down (5.43/9ip from an average 7.0-7.9/9ip range for previous seasons). I didn't change any modifiers etc. upon import.

Is this something I should worry about? Too early in the season? Anyone else see there fictional league statistics get a little wonky 23>24.

[md40022]

Originally Posted by highandoutside

I have a long running fictional league that I've played out every game for my team since 2007. I am just starting May and league-wide strikeouts are significantly down (5.43/9ip from an average 7.0-7.9/9ip range for previous seasons). I didn't change any modifiers etc. upon import.

Is this something I should worry about? Too early in the season? Anyone else see there fictional league statistics get a little wonky 23>24.

That's an awfully big change and my gut says something funky might be going on.... You might want to give it another 2 or 3 weeks just to see if it starts to return to normal, but I'd imagine you're about 350 total games into the season by now which is a relatively decent sample.

Have strikeouts per 9 been trending in one specific direction over the last few years? The reason I ask is if they have been increasing slowly but surely over time, it almost seems like something happened to rip that number down a little bit, but with overcompensation.

[snepp]

I don't have any answers for the transition from one version to the next, all of my games have been clean slates.

I would copy the .dat files into a new test league folder and sim out the remainder of the season there to check the end of season numbers. If they're still way out line from what you're expecting do the test again adjusting the modifier.

[highandoutside]

Originally Posted by md40022

That's an awfully big change and my gut says something funky might be going on.... You might want to give it another 2 or 3 weeks just to see if it starts to return to normal, but I'd imagine you're about 350 total games into the season by now which is a relatively decent sample.

Have strikeouts per 9 been trending in one specific direction over the last few years? The reason I ask is if they have been increasing slowly but surely over time, it almost seems like something happened to rip that number down a little bit, but with overcompensation.

Yeah, I went back and checked league history and this is definitely an outlier and no trend in the the direction of shrinking strikeouts. hmmm

[highandoutside]

Originally Posted by snepp

I don't have any answers for the transition from one version to the next, all of my games have been clean slates.

I would copy the .dat files into a new test league folder and sim out the remainder of the season there to check the end of season numbers. If they're still way out line from what you're expecting do the test again adjusting the modifier.

I think I'm going to have to do what you're suggesting. Should I be playing around with Lock League Total Stats or Use Pre-Calculated Modifiers? I've never played with those in the past.

[snepp]

Since you're in an on-going season the only thing you're going to end up needing to change (hopefully) is the modifier for league strikeouts. If your first test sim ends with the league strikeout rate in that 5.5 area that you're seeing so far, you'll want to move that modifier up to 1.35 or so for the second test.

You'll have to do a little math on your own to see if the modifier is giving you the appropriate k/9 from current date through end of season.

If you want your end of season totals to "look" consistent compared to previous years you'll have to overcompensate the rest of season by raising it even higher then dropping it back down later.

[NoOne]

there is drift due to slight differenecs between players that start out in your league and those made for the draft.

change your League Total Modifiers to mitigate it, or allow it to be how your league plays out... role play it, so to speak, or not.

edit - if not much of a sample, ignore until certain. it's something to evaluate at end of season and adjust if needed. then keep eye on it over next several seasons for more adjustment :P

i used to run 100+ year sims - after zooming forward 30years to get rid of all the seed players, then reseting league data. would then adjust LTMs until i got long-term results i was lookign for... important not to be too precise with this stuff... in the end i cared more aobut what the best players did than the league totals.. i want my 80 pow guys touching 60hr every 10-30 years type frequency... i want the a top end stealer to reach 100 sb or more. (greater than max speed and ability).

long term sims always made reliable sets of modifiers, but when i started working backward from what i wanted from the superstars, i really liked what i saw. it tends to be slightly offensive heavy, but this has an awesome side effect on pictchers too... league wide pitcher stats are obviously slightly lower, but the superstars get a bit better... more differentiation between the top tier and those below.

4.3-4.4 era over 100 years... ebbs and flows.. even slightly higher but then you'll see 70+ hr guys and such, which maybe what you want... each to their own. but, andi'm not the first to say this in the forums, you up the offense slgihtly and it really opens things up. you get better stratification between upper tiers of quality, imho.