Auto-calc modifiers question

krownroyal83 · 02-06-2024, 12:07 PM

I know what this does. It keeps stats in line for the year that you select but what I'm wondering is if a player starts out the season super hot does the game kinda taper his production down later in the season to balance the league stats? I wanna say that it doesn't but for example I see this in my league almost yearly where a player will be red hot in hitting home runs and it looks like he's going to have a monster year where he may break the homer record and his production seems to almost falls off a cliff. I mean it could just be a coincidence and small sample size but I don't know.

Charlie Hough · 02-06-2024, 12:34 PM

No, OOTP does not alter individual player output based on that player's previous performance during the season. It uses league totals and modifiers to establish the overall probability environment, and then the simulation uses those probabilities and the player's ratings to generate sim results and statistical output throughout the season.

For a handful of historical players who had extremely unusual power output, it does things a bit differently, to help prevent those players from exceeding the home run record by too much. But it's not done by slowing down their statistical output. IIRC, it's done by altering their initial ratings calculation for that season. They can still break the record, but OOTP handles those specific players in a slightly different way, to help prevent something absurd from happening. Unless you're referring to those specific players, this doesn't apply to your game.

I suspect that what you're seeing is statistical probability playing out. People tend to notice high home run totals much more than all the other hot streaks and high stats that you can see during the early months of a season. Typically, statistical probabilities mean that those players won't continue the same level of production for the entire season. Inevitably, they cool off, and while they can get hot again and can still have much better seasons than you'd expect, most players usually balance out.

krownroyal83 · 02-06-2024, 10:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Charlie Hough

No, OOTP does not alter individual player output based on that player's previous performance during the season. It uses league totals and modifiers to establish the overall probability environment, and then the simulation uses those probabilities and the player's ratings to generate sim results and statistical output throughout the season.

For a handful of historical players who had extremely unusual power output, it does things a bit differently, to help prevent those players from exceeding the home run record by too much. But it's not done by slowing down their statistical output. IIRC, it's done by altering their initial ratings calculation for that season. They can still break the record, but OOTP handles those specific players in a slightly different way, to help prevent something absurd from happening. Unless you're referring to those specific players, this doesn't apply to your game.

I suspect that what you're seeing is statistical probability playing out. People tend to notice high home run totals much more than all the other hot streaks and high stats that you can see during the early months of a season. Typically, statistical probabilities mean that those players won't continue the same level of production for the entire season. Inevitably, they cool off, and while they can get hot again and can still have much better seasons than you'd expect, most players usually balance out.

Thanks for the great explanation

02-06-2024, 12:07 PM	#1
krownroyal83 All Star Reserve Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 943	Auto-calc modifiers question I know what this does. It keeps stats in line for the year that you select but what I'm wondering is if a player starts out the season super hot does the game kinda taper his production down later in the season to balance the league stats? I wanna say that it doesn't but for example I see this in my league almost yearly where a player will be red hot in hitting home runs and it looks like he's going to have a monster year where he may break the homer record and his production seems to almost falls off a cliff. I mean it could just be a coincidence and small sample size but I don't know.

02-06-2024, 12:34 PM	#2
Charlie Hough Hall Of Famer Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 3,640	No, OOTP does not alter individual player output based on that player's previous performance during the season. It uses league totals and modifiers to establish the overall probability environment, and then the simulation uses those probabilities and the player's ratings to generate sim results and statistical output throughout the season. For a handful of historical players who had extremely unusual power output, it does things a bit differently, to help prevent those players from exceeding the home run record by too much. But it's not done by slowing down their statistical output. IIRC, it's done by altering their initial ratings calculation for that season. They can still break the record, but OOTP handles those specific players in a slightly different way, to help prevent something absurd from happening. Unless you're referring to those specific players, this doesn't apply to your game. I suspect that what you're seeing is statistical probability playing out. People tend to notice high home run totals much more than all the other hot streaks and high stats that you can see during the early months of a season. Typically, statistical probabilities mean that those players won't continue the same level of production for the entire season. Inevitably, they cool off, and while they can get hot again and can still have much better seasons than you'd expect, most players usually balance out.