18 Yr Old SP Too Young for MLB?

[Murph3]

I started a historical sim with the 1978 Atlanta Braves. We finished with the worst record in MLB, so with the #1 pick in the draft I chose Fernando Valenzuela, who was (and still is) rated 80/80 with all of his ratings maxed out (100% scouting accuracy). But I didn’t want to start him in the majors in 1979 due to the clock starting for free agency and because I was worried an 18 year old pitcher is too young for the majors and could regress. Now that I am in May of 1979 I am thinking of bringing him up. He is doing well in AAA but is not completely dominating. My team is around .500 and we have almost no chance of going to the playoffs in 1979. So what would you do? Promote him to Atlanta now or wait until 1980 when he’ll be 19? Thanks

[Brad K]

Bring him to MLB now. His ratings have no where to go but down.

[cheo25]

Dwight Gooden was 19 when he made his major-league debut. Different times, but take it for what it's worth.

[OutS|der]

Mel Ott debuted at 17. Can even go as far back as Joe Nuxhall at 15 though he only lasted a single game

[Pelican]

If you are contemplating a multi-year sim, I would wait until 1980. I base that not just on age, but your description of "not dominating" in AAA. That tells me that, despite the ratings, he is not firing on all cylinders yet. Pitching down the stretch for a team going nowhere won't accelerate his development. A full year in AAA would help more. Ratings are ratings. You can't ignore other factors.

[venflaalachi]

Originally Posted by Pelican

If you are contemplating a multi-year sim, I would wait until 1980. I base that not just on age, but your description of "not dominating" in AAA. That tells me that, despite the ratings, he is not firing on all cylinders yet. Pitching down the stretch for a team going nowhere won't accelerate his development. A full year in AAA would help more. Ratings are ratings. You can't ignore other factors.

Sounds like he doesn't need any development since he is maxed out. Honestly should have been in the MLB since the beginning. I would call him up now.

[Syd Thrift]

Originally Posted by OutS|der

Mel Ott debuted at 17. Can even go as far back as Joe Nuxhall at 15 though he only lasted a single game

Nuxhall TBF debuted during World War II. There are probably international prospects who could have helped their team since then but a. contract laws regarding minors are fraught (like as it was the Dodgers had to void their deal they made with Adrian Beltre back in the day because he signed it as a minor), and b. if you have team control over a guy for 6 years, why not wait for that clock to start when he's 100% ready to go at like 19 or 20?

I agree here with Pelican: unless you are absolutely desperate for pitching, let the guy start to dominate AAA before you call him up. You don't have to give a Rotary Club speech about how you're keeping him down longer than he needs but neither do you need to let the free agency clock start ticking while he's still making rapid progress unless his agent is Scott Boras or something.

[Brad K]

His peak WAR years were 5.5 at ages 24 and 25. He did a 4.1 at age 26 After that his annual average WAR was 0.6. If you're playing with recalc promote him now and let him put some fans in the stands. Creating fan interest is a good thing that carries forward even if you're not winning big now.

[pilight]

Originally Posted by cheo25

Dwight Gooden was 19 when he made his major-league debut. Different times, but take it for what it's worth.

So was the IRL Valenzuela

[Brad K]

Murph, all the comments here about real life players who made MLB in their teens is 100% irrelevant to your decision in OOTP. But I bet you know that. Please post about it when you make your decision.

[Pelican]

Not to belabor the point or complicate your decision, but in my experience the concept of "maxing out" in terms of ratings numbers does not reflect how the game works. Ratings are a scout's assessment of a player. Even with high accuracy, high ratings do not guarantee exceptional performance. I don't know how the game engine deals with super-high ratings in a teenager (and don't particularly want to know), but there is still plenty of room for variation - failure. If high ratings guaranteed superb performance, why bother to play the season out? My guess is that further seasoning in AAA will yield a better rersult/career than rushing the guy to the majors as a teenager with little experience.

[venflaalachi]

Originally Posted by Pelican

Not to belabor the point or complicate your decision, but in my experience the concept of "maxing out" in terms of ratings numbers does not reflect how the game works. Ratings are a scout's assessment of a player. Even with high accuracy, high ratings do not guarantee exceptional performance. I don't know how the game engine deals with super-high ratings in a teenager (and don't particularly want to know), but there is still plenty of room for variation - failure. If high ratings guaranteed superb performance, why bother to play the season out? My guess is that further seasoning in AAA will yield a better rersult/career than rushing the guy to the majors as a teenager with little experience.

There can be variation in results, but he is 80/80 with 100% scouting accuracy. We know he can dominate the MLB, and is already rated as one of the top pitchers in the majors, so he should be in the MLB. He can keep him in the minors to delay free agency/arbitration, but he is fully developed. No further seasoning needed.

I really do not think the game sees the age of the player, just the underlying ratings. If 2 players have identical ratings, and one is 18 and the other 27, they should play very similar assuming similar environments.